Who am I to question Jennifer Harmon?

[MaxPower]

I've been reading the limit holdem section of SSII. I think there will be a lot of discussion about it when the book is more widely available. There is mostly solid advice even if some of it is a little vague.

This is the first thing I have found that is very misleading. This is in the section about when to fold on the turn. She give a few examples of when you are potentially drawing dead, including this one:

[ QUOTE ]
Let's say you have the 5-6 of hearts and find yourself in a multiway pot with multiple bets in it. The flop comes K/images/graemlins/heart.gif J/images/graemlins/heart.gif 4/images/graemlins/spade.gif, followed by the 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif on the turn. If there are four players in this pot, there is a very good chance someone has a bigger flush draw than yours, leaving you drawing dead. So, even if the pot is laying you the right price to draw to the flush, you'd still want to muck this hand if there is a reasonable chance that you are drawing dead.


[/ QUOTE ]

This is a very vague example as it is not clear when the multiple bets went into the pot and exactly what the pot size is. She doesn't mention that in most cases your pot odds will be large enough to cover those times that you are drawing dead.

[balkii]

yet another example of terrible advice from pros. to be fair, I think there is something in HPFAP that sounds very similar to this (or it could be a different 2+2) but as we all know HPFAP has lots of bad advice for todays games.

[Robk]

while clearly wrong for small stakes games, this advice may not be as bad as it appears if she is referring to very tight/tough games. multiway pots in tight games are a very different animal as mason/ others have pointed out. presuming there is a raise on the turn in such a game, and one or more players have played in a way suggesting draw, mucking this hand could certainly be correct. depending of course on the precise pot odds/ situation.

that she would waste time/space on such a vague and debatable yet unimportant example doesn't get me excited
about the chapter though. /images/graemlins/frown.gif perhaps you could give a short review?

[KeyToTheMint]

All views expressed in the following post are those of the author.

1-multiway pots are different in loose and tight games. However, the hands which lose value are hands like KJ unsuited in a tight game.
In a loose game one can play the hand for profit. The reason
is inexperienced or bad loose game players limp utg with
hands like KT or JQ. In a tight game this is not the case
they usually need something like AJ or KQ. hands which
dominate KJ.

2-Suited cards if anything gain value in a tight game which
has a multiway pot. For instance in a tight game a good
player holding 76 suited will fold utg since he knows in
general there wont be enough limpers and the players play
aggessive on the flop. In a loose game that 76 suited will
almost surely be played in the same situation and again
generally correct to do so. Now in the tight game when
a player limped on the puck after 6 people called with
lets say 45 hearts he is less likely to be up against
a flush than he is in a tight game since players do not
play any 2 suited especially in early position.

summing up folding on the turn has to be more wrong in
a tight game as opposed to a loose game with a flush draw.

I would also like to add if you take the name harmon off
the hand and post it just as a hand that u played and folded
on the turn no one will defend it as being right.

[TimTimSalabim]

That's an interesting example, because I would think with that flop there would be many hands that it would hit with made hands and straight draws. Whereas if the flop was K/images/graemlins/heart.gif 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif 4/images/graemlins/spade.gif and four people were hanging around I'd be much more worried about other flush draws.

But then I'm playing 10-20 and not 1k-2k so what do I know?

[MaxPower]

You are right Rob, but I think fold would be the exception rather than the rule. I could certainly put a player on a larger flush draw if I knew his pre-flop standards, he was playing his hand like a draw, and there were no other draws on the board. If the pot odds were close a fold could be correct, but that is not standard. Most of the time in a multiway pot (even in a tight game), the pot should be offering you much more than 4:1 on the turn.

I think this example has the potential to be confuse a lot of people (fine with me).

[joeboe2001]

No expert here but, when you are calculating your odds here, shouldn't you be calculating based on the probability that you will end up with the best hand--not that you will end up with a flush? All she is saying (to me) is that with these cards and 4 players it is highly likely that someone else is looking for the flush and that their flush, if made, is likely to be better than yours--they would need 2 of the 3 low hearts under yours to lose to you. Start with the chance of you making a flush, and reduce it by the chance that one of your opponent's will not make a higher flush, and then consider folding. Or not.

[sthief09]

to quote Joe Tall, "I just threw up in my mouth"

[Bigdaddydvo]

I believe SSHE addresses this question in saying that sometimes you should continue drawing to your hand even if you suspect that you are drawing dead when the pot is big enough (e.g drawing to a flush when the board is paired)

[umaga]

You play the suited connector in a hand when you expect there will be many players in to pay you off when it hits. Now you get the type of board you are looking for and you look to fold because there are lots of players in which means it is likely someone has a better flush draw?

That board would hit lots of hands, and make lots of non-flush draws. Why assume there is such a strong chance you are drawing dead?

[skp]

I agree it is a vague example but the main thing is to realize that it is not enough to simply count the pot and see if you have the right odds to hit what you belive to be a 9 outer. You also need to factor in the chances of making it and still losing. I think that is all that she is saying.

She could have picked a better board to illustrate the point however as the KJ49 board offers lots of possibilities of strong hands that a 6 high flush can go on to beat.

[balkii]

the main thing is to realize that it is not enough to simply count the pot and see if you have the right odds to hit what you belive to be a 9 outer. You also need to factor in the chances of making it and still losing.

There are still 4 players in the pot. Implied odds should be plenty to cover the times you hit and lose, I would call here getting 4.22:1 everytime, and often less.

[MaxPower]

[ QUOTE ]
I agree it is a vague example but the main thing is to realize that it is not enough to simply count the pot and see if you have the right odds to hit what you belive to be a 9 outer. You also need to factor in the chances of making it and still losing. I think that is all that she is saying.

She could have picked a better board to illustrate the point however as the KJ49 board offers lots of possibilities of strong hands that a 6 high flush can go on to beat.

[/ QUOTE ]

That is an important concept, but unfortunately she never makes this explicit. It is not very theoretical.

I think most of the advice given in the chapter will help the typical player, but its not really written for someone who is looking to become an expert. That's a shame because I assume Jennifer Harmon is one of the best around.

There are other examples like this in the chapter, but this is the most blatant one.

[realwtf]

She says you might want to muck if there is a reasonable chance your drawing dead.

Might and reasonable are the keywords here.

It is up to the individuale player to figure oout his moves.

Not use a book and solely go by that.

[Lawrence Ng]

[ QUOTE ]
I agree it is a vague example but the main thing is to realize that it is not enough to simply count the pot and see if you have the right odds to hit what you belive to be a 9 outer. You also need to factor in the chances of making it and still losing. I think that is all that she is saying.

She could have picked a better board to illustrate the point however as the KJ49 board offers lots of possibilities of strong hands that a 6 high flush can go on to beat.

[/ QUOTE ]

Heya Bro,

I think the advice Harmon is giving leans toward the tougher hi stakes limits where ther is very good chance that her flush is drawing dead to a bigger flush. In such cases a fold is not so bad. But in a low/mid limit stakes game I am never folding a flush draw provided the odds are there for me to chase.

Lawrence

[sammy_g]

If you're going to fold 65s on this board, then you should fold 65s preflop.