Too loose - or a good spot to gamble for the chip lead?

[ilya]

$20.

Normally I would fold here (largely b/c there's a very short stack), but I've noticed that I tend to come into the money with the short stack, and I'm experimenting to try to change that.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t300 (4 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

SB (t3200)
Hero (t1880)
UTG (t2230)
Button (t690)

Preflop: Hero is BB with A/images/graemlins/spade.gif, T/images/graemlins/spade.gif.

Folded to SB, who pushes. Hero calls.

[YourFoxyGrandma]

I'm pretty sure that this play is pretty read dependant, but also probably still a bad move. If you're consistently hitting the money short stacked, you probably need to be stealing more, not calling off all your chips.

[iMsoLucky0]

I base my decision here on how the table has been running.

If the table has been real passive/tight, I will fold here because I can steal my way into the chiplead anyways.

If the table has been real aggressive/loose, I will call and take a chance with a pretty strong hand to double up and increase my chances of getting first.

Another thing to take into consideration is what kind of player the SB is. Is he smart enough to do this with any two or would he need at least some form of hand to do this?

[DangerGoodson]

am I the only one that thinks this is a bad play? You are probably racing, but they're are too many hands here that you are dominated by (1010-AA, Ak Aq AJ) and few that you are dominating(ace with lower kicker, king high) to make it a good play. Even if you are racing you just have like a 50% chance to take a chip lead which you could end up losing anyway, and are taking a siginificant risk of placing 4th with no money. I'd rather lock up the money first, then I would think about a move like this.

Danger

[ChrisV]

Too loose. I would call without the short stack but you're better off running a steal vs UTG next hand, provided SB lets you.

[Awesemo]

I'd call. It should be pretty clear that this is a +chip ev situation, the only thing you have to worry about is the button. I don't think he is short stacked enough that you can pass up a good opportunity like this.

[YourFoxyGrandma]

Oh yeah. Also, button has <3xBB. That makes this a pretty obvious fold to me. I would probably even fold AQ here. AK is close.

[KaiShin]

This is a fold for me. If you want to increase your stack, steal more blinds on the button, and if you can play an isolate against the shortest stack, do it.

[The Yugoslavian]

The blinds are so high already I'd be liable to call this push here. The thing is, if you call, you probably have an edge (albeit a small one) against your opponents' range. If you win, you have a great shot at 1st. If you fold, you still only have 3xBB and if the small stack doubles up you don't even have great chances of making the $$ anymore.

Also, if you win you have FE which you otherwise wouldn't have either 4handed or 3handed -- this can be worth even more chips.

I'd probably base my decision on how the table (or this particular opponent) is running. This is a tough call to make so close to the $$ but I think there are some intangibles you gain if you double up here.

Yugoslav

[rachelwxm]

It's close. Fold if you are a better player than the field. You need to win 65% of time to make this call.

[ddubois]

We need more of a read on how often he steals. If he's pushing in this situation with the top 40% (http://home.earthlink.net/~craighowald/data/matchup2.html) of his hands, you are a 1.5:1 favorite against that range. Does the ICM say this is enough of an edge? And I would like to see more of an argument for folding AQo, that seems very dubious to me.

[rachelwxm]

You need 1.9:1. So if he push 40%, it's a clear fold. However, I think this is way too tight range for him to push.