Foxwoods $2000 NLHE Final Table Hand

[Toro]

My friend is catching some grief about the way he played this hand and asked me to post it to get some opinions. This was a $2000 buy-in NLHE event in the World Poker Finals at Foxwoods last Fall.

Four players left, chip stacks as follows:
Seat 1: 380,000
Seat 2: 120,000 (hero)
Seat 3: 24,000
Seat 4: 78,000 (villian)

Prize money as follows:
1st: $154,000
2nd: $94,000
3rd: $59,000
4th: $42,000

Blinds were 4000/8000 with a 500 ante. Seat 1 is the BB and Seat 2 is UTG. Seat 4 is the SB and has been very aggressive.

UTG has AKo and has a plan to try and trap Seat 4 in this hand. He has limped before and Seat 4 has come over the top so he limps with the AK hoping seat 4 will raise and his plan is to re-raise all-in.

So seat 2 open limps for 8000. Seat 3 co-operates by folding and as expected seat 4 raises but he raises all-in. Seat 1 folds. Should seat 2 call or fold here?

[sdplayerb]

i'd call. he got what he wanted, the guy to come over the top.
the SB doesn't have AA or KK, as he wouldn't push so big.
So he is a big favorite or a small dog..that is what you want.

[sfwusc]

As much as I hate it. I fold.

Here is the reason---seat three is going out next unless someone screws up.

I play for place here. Waiting out seat 3 is worth $17K. Then I would take on seat 4 for 2nd.
After surviving that---i go after the big stack.

I will take whatever checks people will give me along the way.

I dont like calling an all in with AK. If I had AA KK then i would call.

If you lose you are going to go out third or fourth.

just my thoughts.

SWUSC

[Lurshy]

I don't love the trap with a hand that may need to improve to win (would rather open raise PF).

Hero was looking to bait the sb, and the sb came as hero wanted. I don't know what villan's standard raise was but with the blinds 4k/8k and him less than 80k a push is not surprising. Especially if he thinks he has a bunch of folding equity based on history and the escalating payouts... Unfortunately SB would certainly push if he had any kind of a pair though given the situation.

Hero does have the villan covered.

I call.

[betgo]

Easy call. AK 4-handed???

I think the trap is fine if you think you will be raised. He may very well fold to a limpraise, fearing a big pair, particularly if he wasn't raising with much.

[Hotrod0823]

If you're going to fold to a raise with AKx then why waste the 8K for a limp?

He got what he wanted a SB push its and easy call I think. You are still left with 40K if you miss and can wait out the short stack.

Are you playing for second of first. Adding almost over 80k to your stack would make the guy in first a little less of a favorite vs. your 200K stack. By calling you all but guarantee second place money, at worst get third place money.

Then again I've never played for that kind of cash but folding AKx seems weak to me.

[Ship_it_tome]

this is absolutely the easiest decision for two types of players, those who play for hourly rate and those who play to win, in this case, you are playing for both, and you have the easiest call in history.

[Toro]

Anyone taking into account the big jump in payouts from 3rd to 2nd?

[drexah]

I agree with the earlier post...why waste 8k on a limp if you are going to fold to a re-raise? He got what he wanted, he has to call this. AK 4 handed with an all-in raiser who like you said is aggressive and has done this before. if 17k is a HUGE deal to this guy then im sure he can fold and wait for small stack to go out. but who knows, small stack could double up a few times and this guy wishes he called. Not sure how better of a situation you can get at this point for a good chance to win 150 grand. He's either a huge favorite or a small dog and i think he has to call this. He is still at least alive if he loses and has a good chance of outlasting the other small stack. call. results?

[srw5n]

That's more of a case for raising IMO.

There's already 13K in the pot with blinds and antes. So I don't see why he would want either the larger stack or the other medium stack in the hand with middle pairs, when a raise probably forces them out.

Further if no one raises now he's lost on the flop. If some one does raise he's likely facing a PP and now probably has to call while behind.

[Toro]

He folded and finished 2nd but took some grief from a couple of people later on saying he should have called. He's in Tunica now and out of the clear blue sky called me last night and asked me to post this. They must have gotten into another discussion about it and he's probably catching more flak for folding.

I wish he could post himself and explain his reasoning but if I got it right it's something like this. He wanted to limp and then have this guy raise, presumably to 24K or 32K. Then his plan was to come over the top of the guy all-in and make the guy get off his hand and win the pot uncontested.

Looking at the stack sizes I think that this reasoning is flawed with that scenario in that the guy may very well call unless he was on a outright steal.

The only thing I can say in my friends defense is that he felt he was a much better player than the other 3, so when the guy went all-in, thus foiling his original plan, he didn't want to gamble in case the guy had a pair and it was a coin flip situation.

The tourney ended rather ironically btw. When he got HU with Seat 1, they played exactly 1 hand. Seat 1 had him 2 to 1 in chips. My friend went all-in with AJ and Seat 1 called with Q8 and spiked a queen.

[Ian J]

Well, if the purpose of the play was to trap seat 4 then that's what happened. I don't understand what the question is. Call.

[Ian J]

[ QUOTE ]

He wanted to limp and then have this guy raise, presumably to 24K or 32K. Then his plan was to come over the top of the guy all-in and make the guy get off his hand and win the pot uncontested.

[/ QUOTE ]

Presumably your friend is very good. Being very good, he should realize when somebody is pot committed. If seat 4 was the type to put in 32k and fold for 46k more then I can't comment. However, very few people would raise to 32k or even 24k for that matter and fold to a push from your friend in a 4 handed situation.

[Bet_to_Nguyen]

Would an open raise all-in make any sense here?

[SossMan]

[ QUOTE ]
Anyone taking into account the big jump in payouts from 3rd to 2nd?

[/ QUOTE ]

How bout the bigger payout jump from 2nd to 1st??

[partygirluk]

Given that Seat 4 has < 10 BBs, Hero knows that any confrontation with him is going to be all in.

Hence his line makes no logical sense.

[DyessMan89]

In normal situations I would fold, but since the jump in payouts from 3rd to 2nd and from 2nd to 1st are so high, playing selective and waiting for a short stack to go out to ensure only 3rd is a bad move. If the prize structure was something like this ....

1st- 100,000
2nd- 80,000
3rd- 70,000
4th- 25,000

Then I might sit back. But not with the current payout structure.

[sdplayerb]

yes, but if you fold, you are close to tied for 2nd.
he is making this push with more than just pocket pairs.
AQ, AJ, AT, KQ. Unless you think this guy is a rock trying to wait for the low stack to be knocked out first.

[Gramps]

Sounds like Seat 4 could be doing this with a wide range of hands. The fact that he pushed all-in makes me think that he's less likely to have a monster. I'd almost rather see him push. While AA/KK isn't 0%, of the times Seat 2 has it he'd probalby play it different the majority (if not vast majority) of the time - he knows Seat 2 folded to his raise a little earlier, why would a push get action (unless he's trying to think on some "higher level" but it's probably safe to assume he's not going to make a play like this very often with AA/KK)? Seat 2 is who Seat 4 is battling for 2nd place against - don't think he'd be likely to play AA/KK "scared" here.

In a worst-case scenario where Seat 2 calls and loses, he still has Seat 3 covered 42,000 to 24,000 (he's in the BB first, but he still has an edge). So...of the times he calls and loses, you'd have to think he still gets 3rd or better at least 50% of the time. 50% of the prize jump from 4th to 3rd is $8,500 - that's what's being put at risk here.

What's the benefit? A $35,000 jump to 2nd (which Seat 2 is almost guaranteed if his AKo holds up with about a 9:1 chip edge on Seat 3), and a realistic shot at the $50,000 jump from 2nd to 1st. I don't think it's a stretch to say that Seat 4 could be doing this push with worse A-x's (or even worse Kings, or some semi-crappy hand even). My guess is AKo is about slight favorite with a nice overlay against Seat 4's likely range of hands.

Given the variables/information described, easy, easy call. The results from this particular tournament (after Seat 2 folded) are short-term and don't effect whether it was right to fold or not.

[Myrtle]

Toro..........

Trying to put myself into the moment.......

Stack Sizes - If I’m Carlo (hero) I’m very aware of both payouts and stack sizes/blind positions. I’m in 2nd chip position, (T120k) considerably behind 1st (T380k), but a good amount ahead of 3rd (T78k), with 4th (T24k) on the verge of having to play all his chips very soon.........

Payouts – 2nd ($94k) is more than double 4th ($42k), and a good chunk better than 3rd ($59k). Of course, I’m playing to win ($154k), but pragmatic reality has to enter my thought process. What am I thinking?....well.........

.........Table Factors – If I’m Carlo, and I feel comfortable with my reads on the other 3 players, and, as you say, I feel that I’m the best player at the table, then I will not be taking any unnecessary risks, as the difference between 2nd, 3rd & 4th place money is significant enough for me to not want to gamble it up and jeopardize what surely looks like a minimum 2nd place finish for me.

You and I both know that Carlo is very good at reading a table, and he is fully capable of setting and executing a trap on an over-aggressive player. As you explained, that was the plan, so...........

......He limps UTG with AKo for less than 10% of his stack, with a clearly thought out plan to trap the villain. BUT.....what is he looking for? I’d be willing to bet that he is looking for villain to make a 3-4x SB steal. What he gets is something really different though! Villain goes all-in for 78k, making the pot 98k.. Carlo is faced with putting in another 78k (leaving him with 34k in his stack) to call with...... a drawing hand. If he calls and wins, great. He now has T212k, which is still less than 55% of the big stack. In other words, winning this pot does not put him in serious contention for winning the tournament. Losing the pot, however, is disastrous! He is now left with T34k, and is facing a T8k BB and T4k SB with T500 antes both times. His previous reasonably secure shot at 2nd place money is now gone, and he’s fighting like hell to take 3rd, and facing a potential $52k shortfall swing if he busts out and finishes 4th. Given the above, I don’t like the risk/reward of calling here.

I think his plan was not unreasonable (given his table reads), but it simply didn’t work out the way he had hoped. Had it, and the SB had made the T3k steal/re-raise that Carlo had hoped for, then he now can execute by coming over the top, forcing the SB to make a decision to call off all of his chips to an UTG limp-allin re-raise.

I applaud Carlo for not making a compound error by calling here. I think he had his priorities correct in this case, and it is one of those situations where tournament payout considerations take precedence over card play.

[Gramps]

The difference between 3rd and 4th place is $17,000. If he calls and loses, he still has the short stack outchipped (and will still have him outchipped if he pays his blinds/antes and folds the next two hands). So, he's risking less than $8,500 for a great shot (read 50% or better) of not only the $17,000 for 3rd at worst, but virtually locking up the extra $35,000 for 2nd at worst (much better than his 50% shot or so that he has if he folds) - and giving himself a greater shot at 1st as well and the huge prize bump involved there.

Just because an action carries risk, doesn't mean that risk outweighs the reward. When you add up the risks and rewards here, given the information provided, it's clearly worth taking the risk here if your goal is $EV maximization.

[22suited]

The way I see it, 2nd and 3rd are doing the battling, 4th is locked for the short stack. He is deciding whether he wants to battle with the maniac before or after the short stack secures at least 3rd.

I'd say risking the 17k loss IF the guy has a coinflip is worth it. If he wins the coinflip he's locking in another 35k for 2nd.

You can't put him on AA or KK, and from the sound of it you could definately put him on AQ KQ AJ and maybe KJ. Other than that I say flip the coin. If you lose the 50/50 you still have a good shot of taking out the short stack.

[sahaguje]

Instant fold, and I dont think it close. AK is a "drawing hand", as a poster said, why gamble with a drawing hand ?

/images/graemlins/grin.gif /images/graemlins/grin.gif

Seriously, I dont understand at all the logic behind the limp-fold, while you have a read on SB that makes you expect he will raise. How could a good player raise 3BB on SB (so out of position if called), when there is one limper and he has a 10- BB stack ???? That is just totally stupid. Any raise from SB will be an all in raise. If he fears UTG limp, he would just complete the blind.
Maybe there is a good high-level reason, but I dont see it, and I am not convinced at all by what has been said. Now if the vilain had a 20 BB stack, maybe hero's plan is good. But less than 10 BB ??? come on...

sahaguje

[schwza]

AK is not neccessarily a drawing hand. against AQ, or KT, or 98 or whatever this "very aggressive" player is raising with, it's a can-o-whoop-ass-opening hand.

if the numbers were slightly different so that hero would not have a chip lead post-blinds on the short stack, it'd be a tougher choice, but i'd still call. here, there's no way i fold, unless the opponents are way too tight and are letting me steal everything. but that's obviously not the case.

to those people saying that a fold is correct, can you agree that the entire line hero took it was a disaster? if hero is planning on folding to a SB push, he's got to raise himself.

to me, this is an easy call. what would have been more interesting is if the big stack had made a big raise.

[TheJackal]

I don't understand this situation whatsoever. He open limps because the guy is aggressive and plans to trap him with one of the best starting hands, gets raised like he wanted, and folds? If he was going to fold to a raise, why did he even call in the first place? I think he played it poorly in my view. If he was concerned about finishing 2nd, he should have raised and picked up the blind money. If he is called, he takes a flop and plays the hand out. If he is re-raised, his hand is a bit more defined and he could decide what to do from there. If it was me, I call here, esp if the villian is aggressive, I could be way ahead of him here.

[djoyce003]

I don't see how you don't call this. However, if hero is considering not calling this then his plan was foolish from the start. If he limps for 8k and lets say the villain makes a raise of 8 or 16k....he's going to call the all-in reraise most times just because the pot is going to be laying him the right odds to call, especially given the size of his stack. If hero is considering folding this, he should never have limped to begin with, it was just flushing money.

[freemont]

My chips beat his into the pot. If my idea was to trap, I would have to be assuming that I'd be playing for all his chips. Everyone that says AK is a drawing hand is right, IF you are up against a pair, nothing in the "this guy has been very aggressive" part tells me he HAS to have a pair. If you think about the range of hands you are up against it could be any Ax, KQ, KJ, KT, possibly lower Kx, all of which you're 3 to 1, QJ, possibly suited connectors, possibly a straight steal, etc... Since we can be fairly sure he'd play AA and KK a little slower maybe even QQ the WORST case scenario is a 46% dog, best is a hand you dominate. I'm too lazy to do all the math, and don't have one of those fancy programs yet, but I'd imagine against the range of hands I'd put him on I'm sitting at something like a 60% favorite in the hand. So by that assumption let's figure out the money

60% of the time you take him out and are sitting with 212K in chips. Now you have roughly 35% of the chips in play. So we'll say a 35% chance at first (though should be closer to 40% since he thinks he is best) 60% at second and 5% at 3rd.

40% he calls and loses he's not out, but crippled with 52K in chips or 9% so we'll say he has a 10% chance at 1st (for simplicity) 15% chance at 2nd 55% chance at 3rd and 20% chance of 4th.
So the EV of a call is .6*((.35*154000)+(.6*94000)+(.05* 59000))+ .4*(.1*154000+.15*94000+.55*59000+.2*42000) which equals roughly $105,120

Now let's say he folds and has 112 left in chips or roughly 18%. So we'll say he has 20% chance of finishing 1st 35% chance of finishing 2nd 25% of finishing 3rd and 10% finishing 4th. So without writing it all out that comes to $86,650.

Seems like a clear call to me. Then again my 60% number might be high in terms of the favorite so just for my own amusement I figured out where the break even point would be between call and fold and shockingly it is somewhere around being a 40%/60% dog!!

I'm sure a few of my percentages can be disputed, but you'd have to REALLY tweak them to make this anywhere close to a fold IMO...

[SossMan]

....and jeopardize what surely looks like a minimum 2nd place finish for me...

and

If he calls and wins, great. He now has T212k, which is still less than 55% of the big stack. In other words, winning this pot does not put him in serious contention for winning the tournament.

don't correlate. If you don't want to gamble and risk not getting 2nd place, then you should be more inclined to call here.

This call is easy. I can't believe the this thread is so long.

[Myrtle]

Carlo doesn't want to gamble because he feels that he DOESN'T have to.

If he felt that he was a dog at the table, then I would agree that it's an easy call......but he doesn't feel that way.

I can't (& won't) disagree with the math. There are times in a tournament (and this is one of them) where other factors take priority.

[MLG]

you factor those other priorities into the math of the decision. if he doesn't want to make this call, then he really shouldnt limp to begin with. Limping implies he will take a bigger preflop risk in order to get his money in with the best of it. If he doesnt want to take that risk, then don't lay the trap, just raise.

[Myrtle]

[ QUOTE ]
40% he calls and loses he's not out, but crippled with 52K in chips or 9%


[/ QUOTE ]

I re-checked the chip count....Is it not 34K left in Carlo's stack if he calls and loses? He then gets to post the BB + ante, then SB + ante. In both cases, he is now out of position with few chips, and must get lucky as it is a certainty that he will get played with.

Contrast that with letting the hand go in the name of stack preservation.....NOT to be confused with 'rocking up'.

Regardless of how powerfull AKo is, it is still a drawing hand and figures to be at best a coin flip against an allin re-raise.

Given the payouts, I can't see jeopardizing his potential earn at this spot.

Let the hand go, see another orbit. Let's see if the small stack busts out. If he does, the dynamics of the table completely change, and so would Carlo's play.

[Myrtle]

[ QUOTE ]
Well, if the purpose of the play was to trap seat 4 then that's what happened. I don't understand what the question is. Call.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not quite....The plan went awry, and he ended up trapping himself. A call here ends up compounding what turned out to be a mistake.

Most people would think that it's 'weak' laying down AKo here.....I disagree.....I think a strong player lays the hand down.

[DyessMan89]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
40% he calls and loses he's not out, but crippled with 52K in chips or 9%


[/ QUOTE ]

I re-checked the chip count....Is it not 34K left in Carlo's stack if he calls and loses? He then gets to post the BB + ante, then SB + ante. In both cases, he is now out of position with few chips, and must get lucky as it is a certainty that he will get played with.

Contrast that with letting the hand go in the name of stack preservation.....NOT to be confused with 'rocking up'.

Regardless of how powerfull AKo is, it is still a drawing hand and figures to be at best a coin flip against an allin re-raise.

Given the payouts, I can't see jeopardizing his potential earn at this spot.

Let the hand go, see another orbit. Let's see if the small stack busts out. If he does, the dynamics of the table completely change, and so would Carlo's play.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why does this have to be a coin flip at best? I think he could be doing this with a wide variety of hands, given that he is a very aggressive player, and is in a dog fight for 2nd place. You guys are assuming hes coming in with the goods, when this might not be the case.

Once again, due to the player Im playing against, and the increased payout from 3rd to 2nd and from 2nd to 1st, I make the call here.

But regardless of that, we should all be able to agree that his limp fold against an aggressive player is an awful move.

[Myrtle]

[ QUOTE ]
Why does this have to be a coin flip at best? I think he could be doing this with a wide variety of hands, given that he is a very aggressive player, and is in a dog fight for 2nd place. You guys are assuming hes coming in with the goods, when this might not be the case.

But regardless of that, we should all be able to agree that his limp fold against an aggressive player is an awful move.

[/ QUOTE ]

......fair question. It's just my opinion that, given the tournament situation at that time as described, that the over-aggressive player would not push all his chips in with trash. Why? Well, for one thing, he could simply wait for the blinds to get to the short stack, and move up a rung simply by doing so. The difference in prize money could motivate even an aggressive player to put on the brakes. We cannot assume that an aggressive player is also a stupid player, given that he made it down to the final four.

As far as the limp fold, I hear ya. I don't know if I'd call his UTG limp awful.
I do know that I would more than likely have raised 3x in that situation. The following action would then better define both my hand and the oppositions', whoever that might be. Also, let's not forget that the big stack was still in play.

[sdplayerb]

i agree..it is absolutely ridiculous.
this is such an easy call it eally isn't close.
Impressive making two mistakes in one hand:
1. Not raising in the first place (with the blinds and antes, I'd just as well assume take them without a fight)
2. Even considering not calling.

All you have to do is put AQ, AJ into the equation, and it is an auto call.

If he folds, he is almost in a tie for 2nd..people that say he has 2nd wrapped up are ridiculous.
And if he were to lose, he can still hold on for 3rd most likely.

[MLG]

In a short handed situation AQ, AJ, A10, and KQ are far less trash like than 22-66.

[sdplayerb]

with these blinds and antes, the value of skill goes down a lot.
would you agree then that the limp was terrible?

[Myrtle]

[ QUOTE ]
with these blinds and antes, the value of skill goes down a lot.
would you agree then that the limp was terrible?

[/ QUOTE ]

....the value of skill goes down if you are short stacked vs. the blind structure. Only one of the 4 players was.

As I said earlier, had it been me, I would have probably made a 3x raise. The problem that I have with calling Carlo's play terrible is that I know him fairly well, and have much respect for his play. As I have not had the opportunity to discuss this with him personally, I have no direct knowledge of his motivation for making the play the way that he did. Yes, it would be easy to offhandedly dismiss the limp as terrible, but I want to find out more first. There may have been other factors in play that we are not aware of.

I understand the need for many to 'wrap' this situation up in a simple, neat fashion. I just don't see it that way.

[Mike Gallo]

Very very tough decision.

If I felt like gambling I would call, if I did not I would fold. Very close decision here.

If I lose I flip flop with him I win I knock him out and wait for player 3 to bust out.

Most likely if I thought I played better then the villain I would fold and if he played better then me I call.

[SossMan]

[ QUOTE ]
It's just my opinion that, given the tournament situation at that time as described, that the over-aggressive player would not push all his chips in with trash.

[/ QUOTE ]

AQ-AT, KQ, KJs are not trash 4 handed. Also, he's a good player and has presumably been playing a long time with Carlo in this big tourney. If that's the case, then he probably has an idea that Carlo is playing weak tight and will fold a hand as good as AK.

This question is much more interesting if the hand in question is AJs or TT.

[Mike Gallo]

This call is easy. I can't believe the this thread is so long.

I respectfully disagree.

[Mike Gallo]

I think a strong player lays the hand down.

I totally agree.

[MLG]

No. If a strong player is convinced that if he limps and somebody pushes he will have to lay it down, then he does not limp, he raises.

[Mike Gallo]

....he had a flexible hand. He limped with the intention of reraising a normal raise, meaning 4x the bb. He did not plan on this. Hero had a safety net and used it wisely.

I admire hero for how he played the hand, especially if he plays better then the villian.

[SossMan]

[ QUOTE ]
I admire hero for how he played the hand, especially if he plays better then the villian.

[/ QUOTE ]

based on this hand, i seriously question that.

[MLG]

First AK is not a flexible hand, it is a strong hand, especially 4 handed. Second, we know that the hero didn't limp because he thought AK was a flexible hand, he limped because he thought it was a strong enough hand to trap with. A player who was aggresive enough that our hero knew he could trap him with a strong hand then moves in. By deffinition (since he is aggresive enough to trap against)he could be doing this with a very wide range of hands. If you are not going to call in this situation then you should not limp. Note that I'm not saying a call is the only decision to make here (although I do believe that to be the case), I'm simply saying that if you limp with the intention of trapping, then you must spring the trap.

[Hotrod0823]

If I'm sitting with 78,000 in chips, less than 10BB, and there is a limper ahead of me my only raise is allin.

With 22K in the pot already a pot sized raise is nearly half my stack.

I can't see how anyone would think the SB would come in for a raise any less than allin.

[MLG]

and even if he did raise less than all-in, you certainly wouldnt have any folding equity if you then pushed. really, calling this all-in is the same thing as reraising a normal raise.

[Gramps]

[ QUOTE ]
Regardless of how powerfull AKo is, it is still a drawing hand and figures to be at best a coin flip against an allin re-raise

[/ QUOTE ]

It's a bit of a misnomer to call AKo a "drawing hand" here. We're not talking about seeing a flop and getting a pair/straight 1/3 time. There's at least a few hands the all-in player could be making this play with that are big underdog "drawing hands" against AK. Against a pair in an all-in situation, who cares who starts out ahead. It's a slight dog with 5 cards to come, that's all that matters.

[ QUOTE ]
Given the payouts, I can't see jeopardizing his potential earn at this spot.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think it's quite the opposite given the payout structure. The jump from 4th to 3rd is minimal compared to 3rd to 2nd, and 2nd to 1st, your buddy still outchips the short stack if he loses, and he figures to be at worst a coinflip (more likely a slight favorite) if he calls, getting better than 4:3 on his call.

What range of hands is everyone who says "fold" putting the all-in player on? From the description given, he could be making this play with a wide range of hands.

Plug it into Poker Stove or some other program. Even if you don't eliminate AA/KK from the equation (and their presence seems unlikely), if you had a couple of worse Aces and KQs to the mix (and say any pair), AKo becomes a 5:4 favorite. If you play around with a little more to reflect a more realistic range of what the all-in player could have, AKo becomes even more of a favorite. Even if you err on the side of narrowing the all-in player's range of hands, it's hard to make AKo any worse than a coin flip.

I agree with the general idea that sometimes you don't take risks, and that if you think you can outplay your opponents then you may pass up an all-in situation, but the math just screams call here. And as far as "outplaying the other players if he folds," Hero got outplayed on this hand here with the other player picking up 20,000 chips for free (including 8,000 of Hero's chips that weren't forced into the pot), with what amounted to a coinflip hand at best if called by the limper. That's outplaying your opponents at the end of a tournament...so maybe Hero should reevaluate himself if that's the basis he chose for laying down this hand given all the variables present.

Not a knock on Hero necessarily, just going on the information given in this hand (and the prior hand with Seat 4 raising over Hero's limp and stealing the chips in the pot without a showdown). For those who love to "play fancy poker," the endgame of a tourney with big blinds and the necessity to gamble a little may be distasteful, but passing up clearly +$EV plays is not the solution.

[sdplayerb]

the player in 2nd place has 15x the BB, that is a small stack. Two of the players are push or fold.

He limped hoping to get raised. If the guy makes a 4x raise (pretty standard with a limper), he is potcommitted. You have little folding equity anyway. So if he was coming over the top, this is by and large the same thing.

And for the villian it really is push or fold, anything else is pretty bad.

I am sure Carlo is good. But even very good players make mistakes.

[Ship_it_tome]

Very very tough decision.

I wonder how many of these people play poker. Hopefully, most of them, mostly seem like fish. The way he played the hand was far more pitiful, than the question at hand. LOL, he says he is good player, how can you consider limping at a level like this??
Then fold to an all in reraise, sounds like he was scured of losin the tourney right there. On top of it, most above average poker players can compute the math in there head. Why does any good player argue with math. BTW, i would like to add this great player to my buddy list!!!

[Myrtle]

O please!!!

Another troll who can't speak or spell. How about adding something of value to the thread?

[Toro]

[ QUOTE ]
O please!!!

Another troll who can't speak or spell. How about adding something of value to the thread?

[/ QUOTE ]

Carlo doesn't need defending, so I won't but I had to laugh when I read that guy's post.

[schwza]

[ QUOTE ]
Regardless of how powerfull AKo is, it is still a drawing hand and figures to be at best a coin flip against an allin re-raise.


[/ QUOTE ]

blatantly false. it's against an <10xbb push from an aggro player, not an "allin re-raise". most likely result is that hero is a 3:1 favorite.

[freemont]

You are correct Myrtle awful is not the right word to describe this play, "Helmuthian strong" is much more applicable, as in see Helmuth laying down AK 3 handed to an all-in from a very aggressive Toldo Leonidas (AQ) at the US championship. Tell you friend he played it like Helmuth, that'll make him feel better... Just don't tell him to read what Paul Phillips had to say about that play.

My math was slightly off but it isn't 34K, if he loses the hand he is left with 40K, but that doesn't even come close to changing this from call to fold. And the blinds coming to him don't kill him as much as they will the short stack who sees them right after him, he still has a good shot at waiting him out. Contrast that with the people who think he is in great position to get second by laying it down which maintains a 112-100 "edge" in chips however he sees the BB next and our villian is on the button, so basically they are tied.

In Dan Harrington's book he says never compound one mistake in a hand by trying to make up for it by making another mistake later on in the action. That's what your friend did here. I have no doubt he's a rock lay it down and survive type tournament player, but I have trouble believing he is so good as to outplay this final table as he got outplayed right here! His underlying idea of trapping with AK against an aggressive player is probably wrong, but not ridiculous. As others have pointed out to expect anything less than an all-in reraise is ridiculous the guy has 78K, any raise has to be all in there. I mean a raise of 3xBB as your friend suggested he thought he might make has about zero folding equity, who's not going to put 16K more into a 44K pot with position and the chance to bust someone? And a raise to 4xBB gives him 3 to 1 odds to call your friends all-in reraise, pretty juicy and hard for anyone with half a brain to turn down. He should therefore know he is going to be playing for his entire opponents stack if he's coming over the top, which many people (myself included) would be comfortable doing with AK 4 handed as it is a coinflip AT WORST!!

[imported_stealthcow]

what does your friend do in a cash game when in this situation?


as a limit non-tournament player, i dont see how you can make this laydown. there is some math involved with the odds of moving up to different payouts. but i see the small blind pushing with AA - 22 AKs KQs AQs AJs ATs AKo AQo AJo -and probably some worse hands too. theres so much dead money in the pot right now, he's getting odds with any hand that has around 40% chance of winning.

if opponent is a rock, then i dont know. and well most of us play those big nl tournaments on party which are sliding fests, so i dont nkow how much my 2 cents are worth.

stealthcow-

[Rushmore]

Wow. It's funny to see how differently many different people can see something that looks so simple on its face.

First, if the sb is so aggressive, why does Hero NEED to attempt this preflop play in the first place? It sounds like any hand that's going to come over the top of your limp would also be a calling hand for this type of player if Hero had simply raised to $32K. I don't like the limp.

Second, after he raises allin, this looks like about as easy a call as you'll find in life, especially for two determining factors:

1.) The type of player/amount of his raise. You could easily have him dominated. He sure doesn't have YOU dominated. This is worthy of serious consideration. It's a situation where you are almost certainly a big favorite or a nominal dog.

2.) You have him covered, so you're not eliminating 3rd place from the equation.

FWIW, I don't like the limp, and I don't like the fold.

[Rushmore]

[ QUOTE ]
Most people would think that it's 'weak' laying down AKo here.....I disagree.....I think a strong player lays the hand down.

[/ QUOTE ]

Although I disagree with both the limp and the fold, I certainly don't see the fold as weak. It's a strong, well-rounded, thinking play.

I just think it's wrong.

[Rushmore]

[ QUOTE ]
In a short handed situation AQ, AJ, A10, and KQ are far less trash like than 22-66.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is exactly what makes it a call. I can not understand what it is that so convinces Myrtle that it's a "coin flip at best." No way in hell can you read the situation that way.

And get that KQ off that list. Jeez.

[MLG]

you dont think 4 handed an aggro player would be moving in with KQ there? I thought my range there was conservative.

[Rushmore]

[ QUOTE ]
you dont think 4 handed an aggro player would be moving in with KQ there? I thought my range there was conservative.

[/ QUOTE ]

I did immediately reconsider my position there, and must admit that some folks would actually make that play there, and it should factor into the equation (along, possibly, with KJs, I suppose).

It is, I am told, the mark of a very evolved mind to always allow for the possibility that you were wrong.

[woodguy]

Pokerstove #'s (for some reason pokerstove won't let me copy the results)

Conservative estimate of Villians hand
Villian has AA-TT, AKs-AJs, AKo-AJo
Hero is 54-46 favorite

More Probable Estimate of Villians hand
Adding in 99-77,KQs,KQo, and ATs,ATo
Hero is 57-43 favorite

Taking out AA from the above to assume Villian would play more for a call from Hero with AA
Hero is 59-41 favorite

Adding in KJs and KJo adds 2% for Hero.

Call

Regards,
Woodguy

[SossMan]

so, about a 60-40 by my estimation...with almost zero chance of being worse than 45%.

easy call.

[Myrtle]

[ QUOTE ]
My math was slightly off but it isn't 34K, if he loses the hand he is left with 40K

[/ QUOTE ]

Carlo started the hand with T120k. 120 less his 8k limp is T112k. Less the T78K call (if he makes it is) is T34k left in Carlo's stack.

What did I miss?

[sdplayerb]

wouldn't the call be for 70K more?
The villain started wiht 78K, carlo had 8K in, so 70K more.
Thus 42K left if he calls and loses.

[Myrtle]

duh......!!!

Boy, my kindergarden math teacher would be really pissed at me right about now!!!

thanks for straightening me out......

/images/graemlins/blush.gif

[sdplayerb]

no problem my man.
now if you would just say i straightened you out on this entire issue!!
kidding of course. to a point.

[Deelah]

If hero would have raised 4xbb preflop and called the reraise allin we wouldnt have had this discussion and villain would have been out. Easy! /images/graemlins/smile.gif

A limp here is really ugly in my opinion as ALL other pots are certainly being raised.

[Myrtle]

This kind post is one of the main reasons that I lurk here at 2+2...........................

We have a situation where a number of posters absolutely disagree. I have a great deal of respect for many of the posters in this thread, and am doing my best to clearly understand their point of view, especially when it differs from mine. This is how I learn, and I thank those who have taken the time and effort to post their thoughts on this subject.

IMO, there are numbers of issues (at different levels of play) in this problem.

On the surface, it appears that Carlo made an error with his limp. As I had mentioned in one of my earlier posts in this string, I probably would have made a 3x rr. What I am still not prepared to do (without discussing it with Carlo) is to simply condemn his play as an error. I am not prepared to do that at this time because I believe that an ‘error’ at one level of play might actually be ‘correct’ at another level of play. I’m not 100% convinced of this, but I have seen evidence that leads me to believe that this is possible. For example, much have been said and written regarding differences in strategy & play in ring games vs. tournaments. For that reason alone, I want to discuss this hand with Carlo, as it is entirely possible that there was something else going on that Carlo picked up on that caused him to do what he did. One of the things that I’m attempting to explore in this case is the issue of.......when does a strong ‘read’ cause one to diverge from normally accepted strategy?

Toro says that Carlo had a ‘plan’ to trap the villain because said villain had been ‘very aggressive’. I’d like to know the specifics of ‘very aggressive’? I’d like to know what this ‘trap’ plan was based upon? Was it based upon a previous read that Carlo had made on the player in earlier play? Or, was it based upon a read that Carlo made as this particular hand was in process?

Then, there is the whole issue of ‘going with your reads’. For example.....the “I sense strength (or weakness)” read...... At what point does your read in a situation such as this override ‘conventional’ play? Let’s say your read is correct, you act on it, and the results are good? Is that correct play? Conversely, if your read is wrong, you act on it, and the results are bad....Is that an error? What if your read is correct, and the results are bad? WHERE exactly is the error made in these (and other similar) cases? Does one judge these things simply by results, or are there other criteria by which one can measure these situations?

There is also the issue of “compounding an error”. In this case, IMO, this gets a bit tricky, as I’m not yet convinced that Carlo’s limp was an error. What it speaks to, however, is the ability of a player to adapt to a set of circumstances that has now changed. So, we can get hung up on ‘was it an error, or not’, or we can recognized that that no longer matters anymore, and the MOST important thing to now consider is.....what is the correct play NOW! It seems to me that I see many players digging in their heels, and many times stubbornly sticking with an original strategy that might have been correct at its inception, but, because of changing circumstances, should probably be abandoned. If one is aware of this, how does one describe it? Could this be....... ‘playing at a higher level’?

It’s entirely possible that I am over-thinking this and other such issues, and that this may be ‘fuzzy logic’ on my part, which in turn would end up being a leak in my game.

Engaging in meaningful dialog with experienced, intelligent and thinking posters on 2+2 can do nothing but help my game in the long run.

Thanks again to all for sharing their thoughts......

[sdplayerb]

I think you are over-thinking it. I believe you might be trying to convince yourself that Carlo was right and come up with reasoning that is such.

I do believe in reads..i've made many plays made on reads and usually correctly.
It was never stated in the post that Carlo had a read showing huge strength by the guy.
You are adding this in, one of the reasons I think you are trying to come up with reasons he is corct. Of course he may have told you this later.

As I've stated before, just about any raise by the villain is going to pot commit him. Really the villian should just fold or raise (or call the half bet). Some might raise to 4x, but that really pot commits him anyway.
So what the heck does he want?
Tell me..what does he want? A 3x raise so the guy isn't pot committed so he has some folding equity? Anything else he is unhappy by?

I'd go further but I've said it all before, and you answer this. There is only one play he is happy by, a 3x raise, which is almost impossible.


[ QUOTE ]

It’s entirely possible that I am over-thinking this and other such issues, and that this may be ‘fuzzy logic’ on my part, which in turn would end up being a leak in my game.

gain to all for sharing their thoughts......

[/ QUOTE ]

[SossMan]

[ QUOTE ]
Engaging in meaningful dialog with experienced, intelligent and thinking posters on 2+2 can do nothing but help my game in the long run.

Thanks again to all for sharing their thoughts......

[/ QUOTE ]

yeah, especially on this and some of the other strategy forums. these types of discussions can really help improve ones game.

I do, think, however, that you are overthinking this one. It is entirely possible that there is a higher level thinking at work, or that Carlo had a read that the LAG happened to be strong on this hand, but without that information, on the face of it, as Toro presented the problem, this is really a very easy call (and a bad limp).

-SossMan

[SossMan]

Please notice the time on our posts are at the same time, so don't you go telling people that I copied you...k? /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

[Rushmore]

Nice post, Myrtle.

I don't think that you're overthinking this at all. I think it's possible that you're not 100% objective, but you're definitely thinking the whole thing through thoroughly, and that's good. His play is still bad here, but it's certainly worth examining.

You may need to start posting more and lurking less.

[Myrtle]

.......As I grow older, I think I am getting more in touch with the old saw....

"the more I learn, the less I know"!!

It is absolutely possible that I am getting hung up somewhere in my thought process, and that's why I keep trying to go at this in this string. Please forgive what some may interpret as stubborness on my part. I've run my own succesfull business since 1978, and one of the things that I've learned over the years that works for me is that until I can wrap my hands around the "big picture", I cannot truly understand on how to best deal with all of the details. The goal, of course, is to always make good business decisions......sounds pretty familiar, eh? (poker is all about making correct decisions with incomplete information).

IF somewhere in that process I am injecting a subjective (or, non-logical /incorrect) thought into the food chain, then it is highly likely that I am perverting the whole process and will end up creating some sort of logical fallacy.

In this case, it COULD be that simple.....but I will continue to think about it and look for more opinions here because I believe I have yet to uncover all of the possible 'thinking points' on this one........

[Emperor]

I think Carlo's tactic to trap this guy is a great plan.

Carlo should then assume that this guy can push at anytime, and decide on a range of hands to trap with.

He should also decide on a range of hands to push with and not be too disappointed if Mr. Aggro calls.

I think AK falls into the 2nd category and not the first.

If he pushes here and gets called then it is the same result as if he is forced to call an all-in bet. If he doesn't get called then he has picked up ante's/blinds for another orbit to catch his trapping hand AND the short stack probably gets knocked out.

I would say Carlo made a tactical error here by including AK in his list of trapping hands.

[patrick dicaprio]

despite the payouts if you are playing to win you have to call here.

Pat

[Myrtle]

...any of us that have been around for a while have heard the 'playing to win' mantra many times.

Rather than accept it just because it exists and is generally accepted on it's own face value, I'd like to explore what that statement means.

I have the feeling that it means different things to different people.....

If you're at this stage and you fully embrace the 'playing to win' thought process...................

Does it mean that you should be willing to get involved with marginal coin-flip situations, regardless of any of the other considerations? (Payout structure comes to mind here for me as a primary consideration).

Let's say, for sake of discussion, that the SB moves in on you in this situation, and turns over 77. Now you don't have to wonder about what he's holding. You're a slight dog.......Do you call in this situation? What specific things will YOU be thinking about, when he flips over his cards, that will determine whether you call or fold?

What if he flips over AQo and you have him dominated....what's your play then?

Sure, it's a no-brainer when you have him dominated. It's also a no-brainer for him to push if he wakes up with AA. But, we're not talking about no-brainer decisions here.

We're talking about the math.....plus your relative postiton vs. the other 3 players (chip wise and table position wise)......plus the payouts.

What I'm trying to get to here is that perhaps if you hang you hat on the math only, perhaps that is a level one playing decision? Where if you consider all the other ramifications and put them into proper perspective, one might be raising one's level of play to the next level?

As Joe Walsh once sang...... "I'm just looking for clues at the scene of the crime"......

[Toro]

Hey Myrtle, I'm bumping this thread so it won't get too buried in case Carlo wants to respond when he gets back from Tunica. I just checked results btw and he got a decent cash in the $3000 NLHE event, 11th place for $12,956.