Poker Puzzle

[kurto]

Here's the situation I find most difficult.

You raise preflop with a pocketpair (let's say 10s or Js). The button, who is a tricky player who's shown a variety of plays; he's made bluffs (and shown them for advertising) he's used those bluffs to get calls from people when he has the nuts. He's slowplayed and fastplayed with the nuts. Also the kind of player who is very effective playing position. He will sometimes call/bet a flop with just overcards, varies between betting and calling with various draws, will bluff straight/bluff situations.

He plays a lot of hands and has had some profitable streaks. Hard to read; when you think he's bluffing, he's got a set of kings. When you think he's got the nuts, he's correctly bet on middle pair and still takes it. I'm sure we've all seen it.

Let's say you raise Preflop from middle position with pocket jacks. You are heads up with him.

The flop comes 3 undercards. You bet, he calls.

Let's say the turn brings a Q or a K; both cards he is capable of calling with a missed flop. You know for a fact (as he always does it) that if you check, he will bet and bet strong. If you bet and he's got TP or better, he will definitely call and might raise.

What's your move. Again... check and he will bet regardless of what he has. Do people just cross their fingers in situations like this and keep betting? I consider myself decent and reading hands/people on line but this guy is too unpredictable and very decent (I want to compare him to Gus hanson, though slightly tigher).

I know that this is a good person to get to bet into your sets, but oddly enough, he's been lucky enough to avoid any major losses thus far.

(perhaps the answer is leave the table cause this guy's just kicking butt).

[amoeba]

against this type of opponent, I like check raising the flop better.

if it gets checked through and the turn comes a Q or K, I plan to check raise the turn too.

if he was a good player though, he wouldn't call your flop bet with a missed Ak or AQ.

[DoomSlice]

Will said player slow down when shown aggression? Since you know he's going to bet every time, I would go for a check-raise, since check calling will make you wind up with you facing a giant river bet, and by leading the turn he could take this opportunity to bet you out of the pot. So instead apply the pressure on him... check-raise the turn and then re-evaluate (which is why I asked about his tendencies when shown aggression). But what do I know... /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[fuego527]

wow!
before i saw amoeba's post thats what crossed my mind
bet the flop
c/r the turn
that really should tell you where youre at (generally ahead)
also, if that c/r doesnt work and you dont want to be patient....just leave the table as you said

[kurto]

"if he was a good player though, he wouldn't call your flop bet with a missed Ak or AQ." Isn't this player dependent?

If I'm in a hand with AK/AQ and there a lot of people go to the flop, and I miss, I'm probably folding to any real raises (I say real because PS has these players who, like clockwork, bet a dime with any draw or bottom pair, low pp, etc. 9 out of 10 times an overbet makes them fold)

But when you're playing, there are many players who will raise with nearly any ace, Ax suited, etc. And they will bet autobet the flop. Against these players, I would not fold my AK/AQ to any flop bet.

Setting aside whether it would be good to call with just overcards, a good amount of players at those tables do it regularly. I always take that into account when I'm playing.

The check raise approach is interesting. It may even force a laydown from a better hand. Though if he called with a better hand, you're possibly increasing your losses? And if he checks both times, you're minimizing your winnings?

Perhaps I need to mix it up as much as he seems to mix up his play?

[amoeba]

I think bet the flop, C/R the turn will definitely tell you where you are but you might be paying too much to find out.

With JJ, TT, I aim to play a small pot when I have overpair and I aim to play a big pot with a set.

Lets do an example.

Lets say you are in position because its a bit easier.

somebody raises standard preflop, you call.

flop comes 9 5 2 rainbow. guy bets 2/3 to 3/4 pot standard.

do you call or raise?

if you think he is possible of shooting another bullet on a blank turn with a missed AK/AQ fairly oftenly, I think I would just call here. But often enough, thats not the case, so I think I would raise to see if villain holds AA/KK, possibly push him off QQ and also to win it right there and not risk an A/K/Q coming on the turn.

In your situation, you are out of position.

If I believe that villain is very aggressive, I might even check call all 3 streets.

Lets say same flop. I check the flop. he bets. If I believe that he is likely to bet out again on the turn with AK/AQ if I just call, I will just call. If I feel that he will more likely slow down on the turn and take a free card if I check call, I check raise the flop, fold to reraise.

[amoeba]

[ QUOTE ]
"if he was a good player though, he wouldn't call your flop bet with a missed Ak or AQ." Isn't this player dependent?

If I'm in a hand with AK/AQ and there a lot of people go to the flop, and I miss, I'm probably folding to any real raises (I say real because PS has these players who, like clockwork, bet a dime with any draw or bottom pair, low pp, etc. 9 out of 10 times an overbet makes them fold)

But when you're playing, there are many players who will raise with nearly any ace, Ax suited, etc. And they will bet autobet the flop. Against these players, I would not fold my AK/AQ to any flop bet.

Setting aside whether it would be good to call with just overcards, a good amount of players at those tables do it regularly. I always take that into account when I'm playing.

The check raise approach is interesting. It may even force a laydown from a better hand. Though if he called with a better hand, you're possibly increasing your losses? And if he checks both times, you're minimizing your winnings?

Perhaps I need to mix it up as much as he seems to mix up his play?

[/ QUOTE ]

I just don't see calling a flop bet when you miss with AK/AQ as a good move. In order for it to be a good move, you have to believe that they are bluffing the flop with a worse Ace high fairly oftenly. you don't want to draw to 6 outs to a TPTK hand.

as to the check raise the flop approach. if you think about it, you check raising the flop costs about as much as you betting the flop, then betting the turn. if my flop check raise is called. I am definitely slowing down on the turn (check fold) especially if an over comes.

As to minimizing my winnings, what do you think is more likely to happen, a good player calling my flop bet with a missed AK/AQ or him trying to bluff at it by betting out when I check to him?

[kurto]

Thanks. That's some good tactics to use.

It really makes me appreciate position. So often I'm in a situation where I have TP and top or a great kicker, but I'm out of position. Someone after me is calling my TP bets and I feel that (based on my notes on the person/observations) that he will play with any ace and call any bet with top pair and that 3 out of every 4 times I will have him outkicked. I have been able to make a lot out of these calling stations, precisely because I bet knowing they're playing crappy kickers. But if I don't bet, he will bet... which could mean 2 pair or simply that he thinks I don't have an ace. (and the scary thing with people you know who play crappy kickers, if the board is showing low cards, they're more likely to have 2 pair then you.)

Now I'm babbling...

At these lowlimits, there's plenty of times where there's an ace on the board and 3 people betting with top pair. 1 of them has great Kicker, 1 of them may or may not have 2 pair, and one of them has a 3 kicker (unpaired and no draw) just giving away his money. The problem is all three of them are willing to put money into the pot. I think this is the most common 'crapshoot' I see on PS.

[kurto]

I think the answer seems to obvious now. I've gotten into the habit of autobetting with my overpairs. I don't want to give away free cards to draws/overcards and I want to maximize my earnings from calling stations.

But I shouldn't be treating this guy a normal player. I wasn't adjusting to his style of play.

I wish I could go back in time and try it out with him...

[Skuzzy]

I check and fold to a bet. To hell with trying to beat a player, who has my head this messed up, with a pair of Jacks. I wait him out I let him take me down on the scare cards and I pedal the nuts and little else against him.

I may be weak but I like waiting to bust him when my 67s or 88 hits and he makes this play representing top pair against my two pair or set. I like to know this guy will call. I like to know he will bet. I don't like the tricky twat taking me down over a weak pair of Jacks giggling when he had the set all along or even made it on the turn and I was protecting JJ. Jacks or better? This time I wait for better, much better.

I replied not 'cause I didn't like the other ideas but this is honesty what I'd do. If this is just dumb, tell me why. I prefer amoeba'splay I just don't feel like I could make it with any confidence.

Oh and finding a better game may have been an off hand comment at the end of your post but honestly, why not? If you're playing 1/2, came in PF for 10 he called, you bet 20 on the flop he called, you check the turn he bets the pot, so 60, you raise how much? Calling his 60, puts the pot at 180, but maybe you reckon he'll fold for just another 120? For 120 you can see 400 hands of 1/2 in a 10 handed game, probably with higher EV than this hand. (Again this is probably just dumb.)


Skuzzy

[PokerSlut]

You are missing out on a lot of money by folding your hand every time someone bets into you on the flop after you raised preflop, whether you hit the flop or not.

[amoeba]

I didnt say I fold. I might raise AK/AQ on a missed flop every now and then but calling is definitely the worst move.

[soah]

Calling is often stronger than raising. Not many players will fire the second barrel on the turn. Then you can take the pot away. Lots of players are too stupid to fold when raised, even when they only have overcards or an underpair. Maybe they think it's bad for their image to fold to a raise. Who knows. All I know is that stealing on the turn is more likely to be successful than raising the flop for whatever reason against many bad players.

[fimbulwinter]

"checkraise the flop, fold to a push"?

if he wants to get tricky, hurt him for it. protects future checks too.

fim