can't fold here, right? [Archive] - Two Plus Two Older Archives

View Full Version : can't fold here, right?

Jon34

01-18-2005, 02:26 PM

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $2 BB (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

saw flop|saw showdown

Hero ($268.60)
CO ($183.60)
Button ($320.10)
SB ($103.70)
BB ($204.55)
UTG ($228.40)
UTG+1 ($98.50)
MP1 ($86.60)
MP2 ($97.80)

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif, Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
2 folds, MP1 calls $2, MP2 calls $2, Hero raises to $11, 4 folds, MP1 calls $9, MP2 calls $9.

Flop: ($36) 2/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, T/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif (3 players)
MP1 checks, MP2 checks, Hero bets $30, MP1 raises to $60, MP2 folds, Hero calls $30.

Turn: ($156) 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif (2 players)
MP1 bets $15.6 (All-In), Hero calls $15.60.

River: ($187.20) J/images/graemlins/heart.gif (2 players, 1 all-in)

Final Pot: $187.20

Due to his stack size, him having only 15 left after the check raise, you are basically calling 45 bucks. You can't fold this flop here, right?

Tilt

01-18-2005, 02:47 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Due to his stack size, him having only 15 left after the check raise, you are basically calling 45 bucks. You can't fold this flop here, right?

[/ QUOTE ]

No way to get away from it unless you fold to the c/r. Its read dependent, but I think there are circumstances where you can fold to that c/r from a decent player. Good players are not going to c/r your obvious overpair on a short stack without a better hand. But I would need to have a very good read on my opponent as TAG and not a bluffer to make that fold.

PoBoy321

01-18-2005, 03:38 PM

Short answer: no, you can't.

You're getting 10:1 on your money with a 4 flush on the turn. Assuming that your flush outs are good, you've got 9 spades and 2 Qs to win, so you're about 11:35 or ~ 1:3 to outdraw a set on the river.

Just call and live with the results.

As for calling the check/raise on the flop, that's player dependent, but given his short stack, I might come back over the top because there's now $120 in the pot and he has $16 left. You almost have odds to draw to a set on the next two cards and you could have the best hand at the moment.

amoeba

01-18-2005, 03:43 PM

good players won't rereraise your preflop reraise with AA/KK. they'll make their move on the flop.

sorry ignore what I said about reraising with QQ. didn't realize it was 1/2.

Tilt

01-18-2005, 04:10 PM

I agree with you Berge. I might just fold to that c/r. Sure it is EV to call or raise all-in AK spades here, and very EV to raise against JJ and AT. But against a set its very low EV. And there is still the possibility of KK/AA.

But...its only going to be 46 more for what will be a final pot of 187. So you have to be up against a set ~75% of the time to make folding a good play. A c/r like this against a good player indicates that you are behind that often IMO. I'd say fold if the you have any evidence that he's a good player.

BullChip

01-18-2005, 04:14 PM

I wouldn't fold.

Why not set him all in on the flop? You know you're not going to fold for 15 bucks so price him now for that spade or overcard.

amoeba

01-18-2005, 05:13 PM

I think I would go all in most of the time on that flop too.

The fact that its mp1 and not one of the limpers makes me a bit worried though.

soah

01-18-2005, 05:30 PM

Bad players will always put you on AK when you raise preflop. There are lots of hands that he could have that he thinks are good which you can actually beat. I would never fold this against an unknown getting this price. Even if you're behind you have a couple outs plus runner-runner outs (except against AA/KK with a bigger spade). Without actually doing the math I'd guess that you need to be at least 80% sure that you're behind here in order to make folding correct.

Jon34

01-19-2005, 12:18 AM

Thanks for the replies.

A few things: In my book, raising him allin and calling are the same. The flat call just delays the inevitable, as it felt like a set to me, but I couldn't fold.
The c/minraise screams of set in that spot, but with such short money behind it, I figured AT or JJ was there often enough to make it worth a call at the time.
He ended up having 66, and I lost.
If I had notes on him that he was good, it would have made it easier to fold.

Jon