KenProspero
01-18-2005, 12:21 PM
A situation came up (which is fairly common), that I was wondering about.
Sorry for the length of this, but, I'm taking Lorinda's advice in Rant #6 to heart, I'll post my analysis, then let you all pick me to shreds.
Three left in an SNG. Hero 25% of the chips. Player2 25% of the chips and Big Stack. 50% of the chips.
The only real read on the players is that Big Stack has been trying to aggressively bully Hero and Player2. Not betting ANY hand, but from the number of recent bets, aggressively betting any hand where he has a shot.
Actual Play .
Hero raises to 3x big blind, Player 2 folds, Big Stack bets all-in (effectively meaning Hero has to go all in to call). Hero calls.
(Though not relevant to the analysis) Big Stack shows two overcards (JKo). Big Stack hits a straight on the river and wins -- but it was a coin-flip going in, so this isn't a bad beat story).
After the hand, I thought about the play, and came up with the following.
Analysis .
With 6-6, I'm figuring that I'm probably a coin flip against any other player who bets. (Big underdog if there's an overpair -- slight favorite to two overcards, Big favorite to something like Ax (where x is 5,4,3,2 or to a lesser degree 6). Given that Big Stack is betting loose and agressive, if he bets, chances are greater than average that it's not an overpair.
The most likely player to call is Big Stack. If I beat him, we essentially switch positions and I become Big Stack.
First I determined my expected return here, and assigned the following values for Hero and Player 2 -- Win 20% 2nd 40% 3rd 40% (These percentages were chosen for a specific reason that I will get to later). Big Stack's winning percentages, therefore are Win 60%, 2nd 20%, 3d 20%.
In this case, before the hand, Hero's expected return is 30% of the entire pool (or 30x). Big Stack's expected return is 40x.
Given a coin flip in All in, Hero has a 50% chance of third place (which pays 20x) and a 50% chance of switching places with Big Stack (which would give an expected return of 40x) or an overall expected return of 30x. (This is intentional, the percentages were deliberately chosen to make all-in a break-even proposition).
Now, the question, what should Hero do.
Fold -- This is a -ev move. Either Player2 or Big Stack will pick up the chips already in the pot, which should hurt hero's chances.
Bet -- Yes. First of all, Hero gets folding equity. Secondly, if Big Stack pushes (likely if he bets) Hero is probably 50/50 which is a push. Finally, avoids the -ev of a fold. The amount of the bet -- depends on analysis of players, what bet is the minimum amount that will induce them (esp Big Stack) to fold with a so-so hand.
Check -- No deep analysis, my gut says Yuck, this is weak. Either fold or be prepared to go to the mats on this. Giving free or cheap cards can't be the right thing here.
Conclusion, in the above scenario, bet (be prepared to push) or push has to be right. In the hand, my raise to 3xbig blind was probably weak, Need to bet bigger (maybe push) to drive out other players.
Additional factors. I think my percentages for Big Stack's return are very conservative. Overall, I think his expectation going in is greater than 40x. What this means, is that having a coin flip to exchange positions with him is a better percentage bet.
Final factor -- chances of 3-way all-in. The ev of a 3-way all in for Hero depends on actual chip count. Assuming it's not EXACTLY 25%-25% with Player2, the player in second has a plus ev from a three way all-in (with assumed equal chances of winning) and the player in third has a -ev. I have to run numbers, but this may in fact tilt the analysis of what Hero should do.
Sorry for the length of this, but, I'm taking Lorinda's advice in Rant #6 to heart, I'll post my analysis, then let you all pick me to shreds.
Three left in an SNG. Hero 25% of the chips. Player2 25% of the chips and Big Stack. 50% of the chips.
The only real read on the players is that Big Stack has been trying to aggressively bully Hero and Player2. Not betting ANY hand, but from the number of recent bets, aggressively betting any hand where he has a shot.
Actual Play .
Hero raises to 3x big blind, Player 2 folds, Big Stack bets all-in (effectively meaning Hero has to go all in to call). Hero calls.
(Though not relevant to the analysis) Big Stack shows two overcards (JKo). Big Stack hits a straight on the river and wins -- but it was a coin-flip going in, so this isn't a bad beat story).
After the hand, I thought about the play, and came up with the following.
Analysis .
With 6-6, I'm figuring that I'm probably a coin flip against any other player who bets. (Big underdog if there's an overpair -- slight favorite to two overcards, Big favorite to something like Ax (where x is 5,4,3,2 or to a lesser degree 6). Given that Big Stack is betting loose and agressive, if he bets, chances are greater than average that it's not an overpair.
The most likely player to call is Big Stack. If I beat him, we essentially switch positions and I become Big Stack.
First I determined my expected return here, and assigned the following values for Hero and Player 2 -- Win 20% 2nd 40% 3rd 40% (These percentages were chosen for a specific reason that I will get to later). Big Stack's winning percentages, therefore are Win 60%, 2nd 20%, 3d 20%.
In this case, before the hand, Hero's expected return is 30% of the entire pool (or 30x). Big Stack's expected return is 40x.
Given a coin flip in All in, Hero has a 50% chance of third place (which pays 20x) and a 50% chance of switching places with Big Stack (which would give an expected return of 40x) or an overall expected return of 30x. (This is intentional, the percentages were deliberately chosen to make all-in a break-even proposition).
Now, the question, what should Hero do.
Fold -- This is a -ev move. Either Player2 or Big Stack will pick up the chips already in the pot, which should hurt hero's chances.
Bet -- Yes. First of all, Hero gets folding equity. Secondly, if Big Stack pushes (likely if he bets) Hero is probably 50/50 which is a push. Finally, avoids the -ev of a fold. The amount of the bet -- depends on analysis of players, what bet is the minimum amount that will induce them (esp Big Stack) to fold with a so-so hand.
Check -- No deep analysis, my gut says Yuck, this is weak. Either fold or be prepared to go to the mats on this. Giving free or cheap cards can't be the right thing here.
Conclusion, in the above scenario, bet (be prepared to push) or push has to be right. In the hand, my raise to 3xbig blind was probably weak, Need to bet bigger (maybe push) to drive out other players.
Additional factors. I think my percentages for Big Stack's return are very conservative. Overall, I think his expectation going in is greater than 40x. What this means, is that having a coin flip to exchange positions with him is a better percentage bet.
Final factor -- chances of 3-way all-in. The ev of a 3-way all in for Hero depends on actual chip count. Assuming it's not EXACTLY 25%-25% with Player2, the player in second has a plus ev from a three way all-in (with assumed equal chances of winning) and the player in third has a -ev. I have to run numbers, but this may in fact tilt the analysis of what Hero should do.