a blind defend 10/20

[Alobar]

I have no stats on this opponent. But in the last orbit, I saw him open raise 22 from MP, get 3 bet, and then check/call the entire way to a 569TJ board. I havent seen him do anything overly aggresive post flop in the limited hands I've sat with him.

Party Poker 10/20 Hold'em (6 max, 5 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 4/images/graemlins/spade.gif, A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
UTG folds, MP folds, Button folds, <font color="#CC3333">SB raises</font>, Hero calls.

Flop: (4 SB) Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, A/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, SB calls.

Turn: (3 BB) 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, SB calls.

River: (5 BB) Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
SB checks, Hero checks.

Final Pot: 5 BB

weak river check? When he didnt c/r me on the turn, I put him on either a queen or a ten. So I figured it was 50/50 I just got rivered. (guess he could have had like 88 or something too tho).

[Rubeskies]

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When he didnt c/r me on the turn, I put him on either a queen or a ten.

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Sounds to me like this opponent is capable of having a wide range of hands here based on your read. I would value bet the river.

[bobman0330]

[ QUOTE ]
When he didnt c/r me on the turn, I put him on either a queen or a ten. So I figured it was 50/50 I just got rivered.

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Bayes' Theorem man! 60/40

[MAxx]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
When he didnt c/r me on the turn, I put him on either a queen or a ten.

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Sounds to me like this opponent is capable of having a wide range of hands here based on your read. I would value bet the river.

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i agree... good thoughts.

[Victor]

Bet the river.

Based on your previous read you know your opponent is capable of calling down with any pair.

[spider]

Value bet. A queen would lead the river here most of the time, being afraid you would check behind.

[Gazza]

Yeah, a weak check. If he had a Q there is a good chance that he would bet out so you must take that into account. He could also have a K high draw, a 7 or an underpair and judging from his previous play he would call you with these as well.
Which brings me to an interesting point:

[ QUOTE ]
I have no stats on this opponent. But in the last orbit, I saw him open raise 22 from MP, get 3 bet, and then check/call the entire way to a 569TJ board.

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With 22 I would almost certainly CR this flop but calling down is not as bad as it looks and probably superior to folding.

Let's make a few rough assumptions:

Assume the 3 bet came from the BTN and blinds fold.
There is now 85 dollars in the pot after the BTN bets.

Let's say out of 11 times we win the pot 3 times by calling down, once when we hit a set and twice because the hand is good at the end.

Let's say we win an average of 2 more big bets each time we win.

That means that we will win 125x3 = 375 dollars and lose 50X8 = 400.

So a total loss of 25 dollars which makes it -2.27 dollars per hand (-0.11 BB)

However, if we win 4 times, quite possible with that board then calling down will make a 100 dollar profit, or a 9.09 profit per hand (+0.45BB).

Not to mention the image benefits of such a play!

I know there are many variables not included (we certainly won't win 2 bets every time he doesn't improve, our set might lose or win a lot more than 2 bets and we can also hit lucky flushes and straights, reads on opponent etc) and we could certainly improve this plan by folding if an ace or king hits but I am just trying to show that it is at least quite close. And if the 3 bet came from the SB we would be in much better shape even with slightly less money in the pot.
Obviously it would have been better not to have invested 30 dollars to be in this position , but once there...

Gazza