Monster Draw- Did I misplay it?

[nebben]

Did I misplay a monster? Did I want to get all my chips in the middle? I know its just a draw, but its theoretically favored over top set. Should I have checked, let him bet and then raised? What do you guys think

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t30 (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

CO (t460)
Hero (t1865)
SB (t605)
BB (t610)
UTG (t670)
UTG+1 (t825)
MP1 (t440)
MP2 (t1690)
MP3 (t835)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
UTG folds, UTG+1 calls t30, MP1 folds, MP2 calls t30, MP3 calls t30, CO folds, Hero calls t30, SB folds, BB checks.

Flop: (t165) A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 4/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
BB checks, UTG+1 checks, MP2 checks, MP3 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets t175</font>, BB folds, UTG+1 folds, MP2 folds, MP3 folds.

Final Pot: t340

[J-Lo]

u can't get blood from a turnip... no one else had a hand so u won the pot.... played it fine

[david050173]

You should be happy winning the pot. You are at best a slight coinflip favorite to a decent dog if someone is on the same flush draw with overs. You are not a favorite over a set since it has the quad/house redraw.

[nebben]

Let me recheck my poker stove numbers.

[david050173]

some twodimes numbers
he had pocket aves for top set

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=717785
pokenum -h 5s 6s - ah ac -- ad 4s 7s
Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing 7s 4s Ad
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
6s 5s 417 42.12 573 57.88 0 0.00 0.421
Ac Ah 573 57.88 417 42.12 0 0.00 0.579

He had ace suited of spades
http://twodimes.net/h/?z=717788
pokenum -h 5s 6s - as js -- ad 4s 7s
Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing 7s 4s Ad
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
6s 5s 309 31.21 681 68.79 0 0.00 0.312
As Js 681 68.79 309 31.21 0 0.00 0.688

two spade overs
http://twodimes.net/h/?z=717803
pokenum -h 5s 6s - ks js -- ad 4s 7s
Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing 7s 4s Ad
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
6s 5s 429 43.33 552 55.76 9 0.91 0.438
Ks Js 552 55.76 429 43.33 9 0.91 0.562

He just had an ace
http://twodimes.net/h/?z=717789
pokenum -h 5s 6s - ac jc -- ad 4s 7s
Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing 7s 4s Ad
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
6s 5s 557 56.26 433 43.74 0 0.00 0.563
Ac Jc 433 43.74 557 56.26 0 0.00 0.437

If you think about it you have 50% of making a straight or flush, the other half the time you are going to lose. If they have a redraw against you, the odds drop fro 50. If you didn't have the straight flush draw (the ace was of spades) the odds would be slightly worse.

I definitely bet this flop aggressively but I try not to stake my whole stack on it early in a sng.