Superbowl Equity [Archive] - Two Plus Two Older Archives

BottlesOf

01-17-2005, 07:02 PM

I'd like to hear everyone's thoughts on how much "superbowl equity" the 4 remaining NFL teams hold, i.e. what percntage of the time they win it all. I'd like to try and get 2 sig figs. in the guesses. I don't think anyone can reasonably argue that one team holds that majority of the equity, or that a team has less than 10/15%. I'm not really sure how I feel at this point, but I'd like to hear everyone's thoughts.

The Dude

01-17-2005, 07:05 PM

New England - 38%
Pittsburg - 30%
Philadelphia - 17%
Atlanta - 15%

NLSoldier

01-17-2005, 07:09 PM

Pitt-33%
NE-26%
Philly-17%
Vick-24%

DemonDeac

01-17-2005, 07:12 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Pitt-33%
NE-26%
Philly-17%
Vick-24%

[/ QUOTE ]

BULLSHIT. its a team game. stop Vick, stop the falcons.

Philly 25%
Pitt 35%
NE 30%
ATL 10%

Eagles have a better quity is they have TO

E-A-G-L-E-S EAGLES!!

tolbiny

01-17-2005, 07:12 PM

From the bottom-
EAgles have the lowest ~ 16.67% of the time will they win the super bowl. While i think the Falcons game is a toss up right now, i don't think they beat the AFC team very often- 1/3 tries, so 50/50 for the NFC game, and 1/3 for the super bowl for their number.
Falcons- 50/50 again, but their offense gives many more probelms, especially with the super bowl being played in good weather. they get a 40% chance of knocking off an AFC team for a 20.00% win rate.
Pats i have favored over the Steelers like 54%-46% so they take the prize 34.20% of the time, and that leaves the steelers with a 29.13% win rate.

EDIT: bad math

PhatTBoll

01-17-2005, 07:13 PM

NE - 34%
Philly - 29%
Pitt - 20%
Atlanta - 17%

Sponger15SB

01-17-2005, 07:30 PM

As I said before, and I'll be sticking with it.

80% NE
0% Pitt
12% Phil
8% Atl

Right Clark?

BottlesOf

01-17-2005, 07:36 PM

I'll take the field if you are willing to put some money on NE winning the big one 80%

I'll also wager a penny against your entire bankroll on Pitt. Consider whatvever percentage this awards Pitt as a gift. /images/graemlins/smirk.gif

IggyWH

01-17-2005, 08:56 PM

Some of these answers are quite crazy...

Of course I'm a Steelers fan and I know the offense played bad last week, but they completely dominated Philly & New England both this year. The Steelers should have better %'s than NE and Philly. You might have an opinion that's different, but results on the field give you a good idea how the %'s should go.

daryn

01-18-2005, 12:36 AM

keep clinging to the regular season. i heard manning had a pretty good regular season too.

IggyWH

01-18-2005, 12:40 AM

[ QUOTE ]
keep clinging to the regular season. i heard manning had a pretty good regular season too.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's not the point...

and if you go by regular season, Pats beat Indy in the beginning of the year anyways. So I guess leaving the judgement to the actual games played sort of makes sense doesn't it?

MarkL444

01-18-2005, 12:41 AM

NE is definately above 30%

im going to assume TO never plays
NE:35%
Pitt:23%
Phi:24%
Atl:18%

istewart

01-18-2005, 12:45 AM

New England has as near 50% as you can get. Big Ben is in for a playoff surprise, courtesy of Belichick.

MarkL444

01-18-2005, 12:49 AM

[ QUOTE ]
New England has as near 50% as you can get. Big Ben is in for a playoff surprise, courtesy of Belichick.

[/ QUOTE ]

if it was in NE, pitt would be down around 10% for me.

istewart

01-18-2005, 12:57 AM

Good point.

I really think this is the Eagles year though, to get to the Super Bowl, but the Falcons have myriad ways to beat them. Plus, for the Vikings being as awful as they are, the Eagles were not as convincing as they should have been IMHO.

MarkL444

01-18-2005, 01:00 AM

ya know, there was so much hype about how the AFC is so much better blah blah blah, but i am much more looking forward to the NFC game sunday

kenberman

01-18-2005, 01:00 AM

[ QUOTE ]
The Steelers should have better %'s than NE and Philly.

[/ QUOTE ]
I don't see how this possible when the Steelers are +3 this week.

kenberman

01-18-2005, 01:04 AM

[ QUOTE ]
there was so much hype about how the AFC is so much better blah blah blah

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think it's hype, it's reality

daryn

01-18-2005, 01:10 AM

<blockquote>In risposta di:<hr />
<blockquote>In risposta di:<hr />
keep clinging to the regular season. i heard manning had a pretty good regular season too.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's not the point...

and if you go by regular season, Pats beat Indy in the beginning of the year anyways. So I guess leaving the judgement to the actual games played sort of makes sense doesn't it?

[/ QUOTE ]

i am saying regular season means little.

MarkL444

01-18-2005, 01:19 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
there was so much hype about how the AFC is so much better blah blah blah

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think it's hype, it's reality

[/ QUOTE ]

if youll look at my equity thingy, youll see i like the AFC more than 50%, im just saying i think the NFC game is going to be MUCH better.

kenberman

01-18-2005, 01:34 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
there was so much hype about how the AFC is so much better blah blah blah

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think it's hype, it's reality

[/ QUOTE ]

if youll look at my equity thingy, youll see i like the AFC more than 50%, im just saying i think the NFC game is going to be MUCH better.

[/ QUOTE ]

ok, but I disagree. The 2 best teams in football are playing for the AFC championship. to me, that makes it a better game.

IggyWH

01-18-2005, 01:37 AM

MarkL444

01-18-2005, 01:41 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
keep clinging to the regular season. i heard manning had a pretty good regular season too.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's not the point...

and if you go by regular season, Pats beat Indy in the beginning of the year anyways. So I guess leaving the judgement to the actual games played sort of makes sense doesn't it?

[/ QUOTE ]

i am saying regular season means little.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ahh yes, you're right. Since regular season means little, I guess Miami and San Fran got screwed not making the playoffs.

[/ QUOTE ]

daryn's right, youre wrong. you are being an emotionally involved crybaby because your team is an underdog.

IggyWH

01-18-2005, 01:47 AM

[ QUOTE ]
daryn's right, youre wrong. you are being an emotionally involved crybaby because your team is an underdog.

[/ QUOTE ]

You can't pick and choose when you want the regular season to mean something and when you don't want it to mean something. I could care less if the Steelers are 100 point dogs, doesn't make one bit of difference to me.

The Steelers have been in this same situation before and came away on top. I will continue to have that confidence until the final score tells me otherwise.

MarkL444

01-18-2005, 01:50 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
daryn's right, youre wrong. you are being an emotionally involved crybaby because your team is an underdog.

[/ QUOTE ]

You can't pick and choose when you want the regular season to mean something and when you don't want it to mean something. I could care less if the Steelers are 100 point dogs, doesn't make one bit of difference to me.

The Steelers have been in this same situation before and came away on top. I will continue to have that confidence until the final score tells me otherwise.

[/ QUOTE ]

isnt that what i just said?

Gatts

01-18-2005, 02:23 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
keep clinging to the regular season. i heard manning had a pretty good regular season too.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's not the point...

and if you go by regular season, Pats beat Indy in the beginning of the year anyways. So I guess leaving the judgement to the actual games played sort of makes sense doesn't it?

[/ QUOTE ]

i am saying regular season means little.

[/ QUOTE ]

Of course it means little. We're talking about one game here. In every sport the playoffs end up being close to a crapshoot. Probably the only constant is in football the bye teams do crazy good in the divisional series (HFA + bye + superior talent level). New England's crazy good, but they're not a trillion times better than Pitt or PHI or ATL and anything can happen when you get teams that are this closely matched.

istewart

01-18-2005, 02:41 AM

daryn

01-18-2005, 08:13 AM

<blockquote>In risposta di:<hr />
<blockquote>In risposta di:<hr />
<blockquote>In risposta di:<hr />
<blockquote>In risposta di:<hr />
keep clinging to the regular season. i heard manning had a pretty good regular season too.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's not the point...

and if you go by regular season, Pats beat Indy in the beginning of the year anyways. So I guess leaving the judgement to the actual games played sort of makes sense doesn't it?

[/ QUOTE ]

i am saying regular season means little.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ahh yes, you're right. Since regular season means little, I guess Miami and San Fran got screwed not making the playoffs.

[/ QUOTE ]

amended statement: one game from the regular season means little. miami isn't in the playoffs because they blow donkey schlong.

BUT WAIT! OMG! THEY BEAT THE PATRIOTS! LOL, CAN U BELIEVE IT??? CLEARLY THEY ARE THE BETTER TEAM ROFL!

how dumb. also notice how brady played like crap that game against miami, with uncharacteristic picks-a-plenty. there was one other game where he played like that too... oh snap, against shittsburgh.

like people have said, it's the playoffs baby. dillion is back and strong, secondary is stronger, and brady will man up.

i can already hear iggy's reply:

BUT U STILL HAVEN'T ANSWERED MY QUESTION!!! WHAT WILL "BELI" ACTUALLY DO??? I MEAN WHAT WILL HE PHYSICALLY ACTUALLY DO?????

well i imagine he will wake up that morning. maybe have a cup of coffee and a light breakfast. i don't know, maybe that's not his thing, maybe it is. then he will take a nice shower, head over to heinz field, and coach his team into their 3rd superbowl appearance in 4 years.

daryn

01-18-2005, 08:18 AM

<blockquote>In risposta di:<hr />
The Steelers have been in this same situation before and came away on top.

[/ QUOTE ]

that was awesome that year that the steelers made all those travel plans and hotel plans etc. for the superbowl before the AFC championship game, then the pats layed the smack down and ruined everyone's s[/b]hit

daryn

01-18-2005, 01:48 PM

Mano

01-18-2005, 01:55 PM

I think the both title games are pretty much tossups, and whichever AFC team wins will be like 80%, so:

Pitt - .4
NE - .4
Philly - .1
ATL - .1

sublime

01-18-2005, 02:29 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Some of these answers are quite crazy...

Of course I'm a Steelers fan and I know the offense played bad last week, but they completely dominated Philly & New England both this year. The Steelers should have better %'s than NE and Philly. You might have an opinion that's different, but results on the field give you a good idea how the %'s should go.

[/ QUOTE ]

your posts are aggravating. for the last friggin time, that game in october has VERY LITTLE bearing on this upcoming game. to begin with the patriots didnt have dillon (which you will argue that didnt matter, but you are wrong. it does. at the same time it doesnt mean the pats would have won the game) they also lost matt light (starting left tackle) early in the 3rd quater. ty law fell to injury early in the game and it was the FIRST time they had to play without him and poole. also the emotional factors, the steelers had a LOT to prove. all week they heard about how good the patriots were and the winning streak etc. the steelers came flying out of the gate and pinned the pats to a 21-3 deficit and are a good enough team to hold onto that lead. again, EVERYTHING went wrong for that pats. the "domination" you talk about is not as simple as you point out.

sublime

01-18-2005, 02:43 PM

The Steelers have been in this same situation before and came away on top. I will continue to have that confidence until the final score tells me otherwise.

when? what situation are you referring to?

Tron

01-18-2005, 02:48 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I COULDN'T care less. Pet peeve of mine.

[/ QUOTE ]

Your pet peeve is wrong. It's fairly obvious that when someone says "I could care less" in regards to something that they don't care about at all, they're being sarcastic, because, hey, how could they possibly care less about something they don't care about at all in the first place? Oh yeah, sarcasm. So really, either one is correct.

Oh, and uhm... Patriots 40%, Steelers 20%, Eagles 30%, Atlanta 10%

BottlesOf

01-18-2005, 02:58 PM

I was going to say something similar.