Texas Pete crashes the 200s. Guess the ROI.

[jcm4ccc]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm going to write down 200 lessons I learn from watching $200 SNGs. Then I'm going to play 200 of them. I am currently playing the $30's.

[/ QUOTE ]

Texas Pete made this statement in a previous post. Guess his ROI over his first 200 SnGs. I will mail the winner a gallon jar of Texas Pete hot sauce (seriously).

http://secure.mycart.net/catalogs/catalog.asp?prodid=1097375&showprevnext=1

Negative ROIs are written in parantheses: (0.10)
Positive ROIs are written without parentheses: 0.10

In the case of a tie, I'll mail out half-gallons. In the case of a multi-tie, I'll figure out something else.

[jcm4ccc]

My guess is (0.12)

[citanul]

I'm confused:

has he already played them?
is this your guess for your own contest? or is that the result?

wtf?

[jcm4ccc]

sorry, that's my guess. My guess is (0.12).

[KidPhil]

I'll go with
0

[The Yugoslavian]

Hot damn! A $5.91 gallon of hot sauce, where do I sign up? Oh, I sign up here, well ok then.

My guess is that he doesn't finish 200 215 SNGs. If he ends up playing 200 215 SNGs I'd say he'll have an ROI of (.05).

Yugoslav

[schwza]

no offense, pete, but i'm taking (.17), and seconding the opinion that this will not happen.

[The Yugoslavian]

I almost guessed closer to .17 but in that case he'd be down over 30 buyins and I just can't see him sticking around for that many SNGs if he's losing so much. So, I feel he either doesn't complete (or start) it or he only has a relatively poor negative ROI.

Yugoslav

[schwza]

i mean, just playing average with the field is ~(.07) b/c of the rake. i think the jump from 30 to 200 is going to be huge.

[The Yugoslavian]

Yeah, I think we're basically in agreement -- he won't actually complete the 200 SNGs /images/graemlins/grin.gif.

Anyway, I'm pretty sure my guess is exactly right ( /images/graemlins/wink.gif ) -- I've never been wrong before when competing for hot suace. /images/graemlins/cool.gif

Yugoslav

[adanthar]

This is so mean.













((.20), done after 50)

[lacky]

yes it is








((.23) I say he's rich and stubbern enough to complete. Sounds like a proffesor to me)

[ilya]

I'm just gonna go ahead and guess

0.03

because I *believe*!

[Texas Pete]

Now we're talking! I knew my experiment would provide some entertainment value for the folks following along at home.
I should mention a couple of other things:

(1) I'm going to bankroll 30 buy-ins and keep playing 'till i've played 200 or i've lost it all. So -100% is not an unreasonable guess.

(2) I probably won't be playing the $30's when I finish posting the 200 hands. I currently have ~$1500 and an ROI ~30% at the 30's. (I just played a lot today away from home where I have the stats.) When I reach $2k I'll be moving up to the 50's.

[Texas Pete]

Your contest, but you should have those guess -100% also guess the number of games as a tie-breaker.

P.S. I don't mean to insult the professionalism of the pros with my expriment. It's just something to (a) improve my own play and (b) see where I stand after a period of hard work.

[DonButtons]

Hmmm..This is not a good idea. Specially since your prob. playing with scared money. I can't even imagine how you play after you lose your first 4 buyins if your multi tabling.

Id say stick to the $50s, swings are prob. the size of your bankroll in the $200s.

[UMTerp]

Pete, my cat could do better than -100%. You'd have to play your first 30 tournaments without cashing at all to get that ROI.

[Texas Pete]

I just asked my money if it was scared. It said "no".

[Big Limpin']

It must be in denial.

Seriously though, good luck.

[pooh74]

[ QUOTE ]
Pete, my cat could do better than -100%. You'd have to play your first 30 tournaments without cashing at all to get that ROI.

[/ QUOTE ]

what if he loses all his wad before playing all 200? that's still -100%

[UMTerp]

No it's not. You guys aren't calculating ROI correctly then.

[skipperbob]

O.K. I'll bite!...If you play 1 SnG & finish OTM, then your ITM % = 0 & your R.O.I.= -100%....If you play 10 and fail to finish ITM once then your ITM % = 0 & ROI = -100%...If you play 10 more & take 10 3rd's in a row, now you have a 50% ITM and your ROI = -9%(approx)....Right?

[Myst]

I will venture a guess and say that he'll lose about 20 buyins (.67) ROI.

[lorinda]

+86.05% before he runs back to $33s /images/graemlins/smile.gif

Lori

[pooh74]

[ QUOTE ]
No it's not. You guys aren't calculating ROI correctly then.

[/ QUOTE ]

ur right once again...it amazes me how stupid I am sometimes. I was thinking of his BR as a fixed amount and therefore a bust equaled a -100% return when in fact thats not how it works at all. It WOULD take 30 straight losses to be -100%...sorry terp

[burningyen]

No offense, but (0.5).

[FishBurger]

I'll guess 0.03. However, at some point he will lose 10 straight buyins and may give up at that time if it occurs near the beginning of the experiment.

[dankhank]

my only interest is the hot sauce:

(.15)

[Roman]

(.10)
gl though

[McMelchior]

My guess: (.35)
This coming from someone who has never played higher than $50.

What do I know, maybe the players in the $200s are all LAGgies and pure luck will keep Pete much closer to break-even. I just kinda imagine him winning one and making a third place for every nine or ten played. If he does better I'm definitively moving up myself!

A negative ROI of .35 would of course mean, that Pete would go broke after approximately 80 hands.

Best,

McMelchior (Johan)

[Mouse1949]

The 200s fill too slow. You lose ROI just by waiting (unless you do ring games while in the queue).

Nobody is getting the sauce. This is an covert ad. (to 500 guys, lol)