O/u Pats/Steelers

[tolbiny]

The over under is at 37 right now- and i think if anything the public will bet it down, maybe to -120 or so. I think this will be a good over to take. The pats aren't going to be able to shut down bettis/stayley for the entire game, and they know this. Pittsburghs weakness on the D side is their corners, and if New England can pick up the blitz they should hit severl long passing playes. Overall i see a hard fought 24-17 type of game, maybe even 24-20. Gonna wait and see how the line moves though.

[ttleistdci]

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The pats aren't going to be able to shut down bettis/stayley for the entire game, and they know this.

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That's funny because last week we were hearing the same thing, except replace Bettis/Staley with Manning/James.

Sure about that?

[tolbiny]

Yes- for the record i picked the pats and the under in yesterday's game. The difference between Indy and the Steelers is that Indy is "soft". They had no chance to wear down an injured defense. On the other hand the steelers enjoy a smash mouth game, and the patriots cannot (and will not) bank on holding them to fewer than 14 points, so they will be determined to put up some points of their own.
BTW- i don't mean to imply that bettis and staley will combine for over 200 yards rushing- i would guess in the 140-150 range with 1-2 TD's for them together. Not a monster game, but enough to put together a couple of scoring drives.

[ttleistdci]

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The difference between Indy and the Steelers is that Indy is "soft". They had no chance to wear down an injured defense.

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They didn't have a chance because NE didn't GIVE them a chance. Look at the ball control...38 minutes to 22 minutes...almost a 2-1 difference.

What's the best way to prevent Manning from taking over a game? Not giving him the ball.

[kenberman]

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The difference between Indy and the Steelers is that Indy is "soft". They had no chance to wear down an injured defense.

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They didn't have a chance because NE didn't GIVE them a chance. Look at the ball control...38 minutes to 22 minutes...almost a 2-1 difference.

What's the best way to prevent Manning from taking over a game? Not giving him the ball.

[/ QUOTE ]

The Steelers are a completely different animal than the Colts. I think they're fairly similar - but better - than the Titans last year. They are a tough team who are just as physical - maybe more so - than the Pats. Their defense is quite strong, but may be a bit overrated due to how little they actually were on the field (the least in the league by far).

Just as the Pats kept Manning of the field by pounding the ball, the Steelers have kept their opponents off the field all year long. Pats will have a lot more trouble moving the ball this week than yesterday.

I do think the Pats will win, but you need to look at this a little bit more objectively.

I see something like 20-14, Pats. So, the under.

[buzzbait]

Why do you think the pats will be able to pick up the blitz with how their line handled the rush against the colts? I think the pats know they have to pound Dillon this game as when they didn't have a running game in the first game, they had trouble handling the pitt d. So they have to make pitt respect the run first this time to slow down the rush. So, I think the O/U is pretty accurate. I am still wondering why the steelers are 3 point dogs (I think the line should be a push, maybe 1 point in favor of the pats). Like the pats didn't get respect against the colts, I think the pitt d is not getting the respect they should.

(btw tolbiny, this is jai)

[tolbiny]

What's up Jai-
I think belicheck's game plan needs to include an early score to take the crowd out of the game to some extent. He has to know that close playoff games go toward the home team to often to make this one a nailbiter intentionally. I think the difference between the two teams is going to come down to the pats recievers agaisnt the steelers secondary. You will see a mostly pounding ground game- but with more deep balls to stretch the field, and play action passes to the Pats tight ends.

[Easy E]

We'll see what happens with the snow- if it stays Saturday into Sunday early, the field should be semi-decent. If it shifts, the line might also?

Don't know how much lower it can go, however.

[$DEADSEXE$]

Bilichek could just encahance what the Jets did to stop the run..trust me when I saw all of New England wants to leave it in Big Ben's hands to win the game..the guy has averaged 8-15 throws per game....now he's played damn well but in the end the key thing he did all season was play smart and not throw picks. The wins had more to do with the running game and their D.
-Dillon and Bettis cancel each other out...
-The defense of both teams pretty much cancel each other out with a edge to NE because of Belichek.
-The special teams give an edge to the Pats
The Qb's give a huge edge to the Pats
The kicking game gives an edge to the pats
Homefield advantage and the Pats playoff expiernce cancel each other out.

[Rick Diesel]

[ QUOTE ]
Bilichek could just encahance what the Jets did to stop the run..trust me when I saw all of New England wants to leave it in Big Ben's hands to win the game..the guy has averaged 8-15 throws per game....now he's played damn well but in the end the key thing he did all season was play smart and not throw picks. The wins had more to do with the running game and their D.
-Dillon and Bettis cancel each other out...
-The defense of both teams pretty much cancel each other out with a edge to NE because of Belichek.
-The special teams give an edge to the Pats
The Qb's give a huge edge to the Pats
The kicking game gives an edge to the pats
Homefield advantage and the Pats playoff expiernce cancel each other out.

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- Dillon and Bettis may cancel each other out, but the Steelers o-line is way better than the Patriots, plus the best blocking TEs and WRs in the league give a big advantage to the Steelers

- the WR's give a huge advantage to the Steelers, although that is mitigated slightly by the QB differential

- the defenses don't cancel each other. The Steelers have a better defense, but Belichek makes them cancel out.

- the special teams are weird. Vinatieri is clearly the best kicker in the game, so that Pats have a definite advantage there. the punters are a wash. the return situation is the weird part. Although the Pats have better return and coverage teams, Randle El is way more of a game-breaker than anyone the Pats put out there. Pats still have a definite advantage in special teams.

Overall assessment:
Offenses - wash
Defenses - wash
Special teams - Pats
Coaching - Pats
Experience - Pats
Home Field - Steelers

Overall - I think that the 2.5-3 points the Pats are giving is accurate for this game.

[$DEADSEXE$]

Rookie Qb with a strong running game very good WR's and solid Defense vs. @ time Superbowl MVP Qb with a strong running game and decent WR's and a solid defense with a hall of fame defensive coach.

You give this scenario to any pro-coach and he picks the Later to win strong.

Is Ben Rotheberger a very good QB...yes....if he was on the giants rather than the Steelers would he have done much better than Eli- No.

Big Ben is a smart efficent rookie Qb who is never needed or asked to do much--i'de compare it to Jake Plummers normal role with the bronco's...run/run/run occasional pass/run/run/run.

So all Belichek has to do is stop the run for the steelers anbd the game is over. Thats it.

Stop the run--Pats win end of story.