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View Full Version : the long run?

high007
01-17-2005, 10:33 AM
how long is the long run? if only playing with odds in your favor and a bankroll to back it up how long is this long run (session)?

thanks
JoshuaD
01-17-2005, 10:44 AM
After 20,000 hands, if you've got a winrate of 2BB/100, and a "normal" Standard deviation ( 16BB/100 ), you can be about 95% sure that you're no worse a break even player.

You can be about 60% sure that you're at least a 1BB/100 hand player, and you can be 35% sure that you're a 1.5BB/100 hand player.


After 100,000 hands, same winrate and SD, you can be 95% sure you're at least a 1BB/100 hand player, and you can be 99.99% sure that you're at least break even. You can also be about 70% sure that you're at least a 1.5BB/100 player.

That is, assuming, not much changes over those 100,000 hands.
TStoneMBD
01-17-2005, 11:21 AM
20k hands with a 2BB/100 rate only shows a mathematical expectancy of 60% chance of being a winning player? that seems a little low doesnt it? is that math based on deviation or is it just your estimated number?
dogmeat
01-17-2005, 12:56 PM
That math looks correct. To get to higher expectations, the number of hands grows to hundreds of thousands.

Dogmeat /images/graemlins/spade.gif
jason1990
01-17-2005, 01:05 PM
The first half of this article (http://webpages.charter.net/swanson.jason/stats_poker.pdf) describes in gory detail the process by which these confidence intervals are derived. The second half deals with the issue of standard deviation. For instance, if PT gives you a standard deviation of 16BB/100 after 20,000 hands, what does that tell you about your *true* standard deviation?
JoshuaD
01-17-2005, 01:42 PM
[ QUOTE ]
20k hands with a 2BB/100 rate only shows a mathematical expectancy of 60% chance of being a winning player? that seems a little low doesnt it? is that math based on deviation or is it just your estimated number?

[/ QUOTE ]

It's math, and it wasn't a 60% chance of being a winning player, it's that you can be 60% sure you're at least a 1BB/100 player.

Technically, you can be 92% sure you're a "winning player", but you're only 92% sure that you're at least a 0.01BB/100 player.