Time for an experiment... [Archive] - Two Plus Two Older Archives

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DrGutshot

01-17-2005, 01:08 AM

There are few feelings worse than the dread of 3betting out of the SB with AK, seeing a flop of Q98, and having 4 people to act behind you.

I have been talking with a friend who does not play AK-AQ aggressively at all out of position, so I have been inspired to try an experiment with the following rules:

If I have AK-AJs, 77-99 in the SB or BB and am faced with a raise AFTER a limper, or if there have been 2 limpers, I am not going to 3bet, or even make the first raise.
I will complete, call, or check. I will only play AJs to a raise if the raiser is known to be very aggressive.

If there has only been 1 limper, then I will raise these hands. If the hand only has an open-raiser, then I will 3bet these hands (as long as my read permits it).

I think the value lost by not raising preflop will at least be mostly compensated by the extra action received because of deception.

This is for 10/206max, btw.

All input and major flaming appreciated
-DrG

Trix

01-17-2005, 01:23 AM

I like experiments, but not 3betting AK in a shorthanded game, because the flop may come bad, just seem a little weak-tight, no offence. You sure the problem isnt in your postflop play with these hands ?

"There are few feelings worse than the dread of 3betting out of the SB with AK, seeing a flop of Q98, and having 4 people to act behind you."

You check right?

stonecold

01-17-2005, 01:23 AM

nevermind about what i wrote first, next time i will read it better before i write /images/graemlins/laugh.gif

want to see the results....

DrGutshot

01-17-2005, 01:58 AM

[ QUOTE ]

"There are few feelings worse than the dread of 3betting out of the SB with AK, seeing a flop of Q98, and having 4 people to act behind you."

You check right?

[/ QUOTE ]

yes, but someting feels wrong about check calling, then checkfolding the turn unimproved.

anyways - that was a generalization

-DrG

DrGutshot

01-17-2005, 02:00 AM

[ QUOTE ]

want to see the results....

[/ QUOTE ]

Unfortunatly, to get accurate results I think I'll have to play around half a million hands, because results for this experiment can only be seen in 2 positions instead of all 6.

However, I'll post some hands in this thread as they come up - will be interested to get some feedback.

Preparing for the worst and hoping for the best,
-DrG

balkii

01-17-2005, 03:23 AM

Any argument that does not mention a play's expectation is immediately suspect. When you make any decision, your goal should usually be to maximize your expectation....While many players invent "logical" rationalizations to play passively with strong hands, their real motivation is usually to avoid bad beats. They eschew raising with their premium hands because they fear the emotional pain of losing a big pot.

-Guess who

helpmeout

01-17-2005, 05:58 AM

T9s calls
Ajo raises
55 calls
Ako ?

Which hand has the most equity?

BTW thanks for the great post it is something that has run through my mind a bit but not really enough to take notice of.

I blindly 3bet too many hands out of the blinds.

TStoneMBD

01-17-2005, 05:58 AM

not 3betting these hands preflop simply because you dont want to feel obligated pounding bad flops is poor reasoning. i suppose you want to call in the blinds with AK and cr an A or K flop instead of leading? the question poses, do you really think you will gain more value out of checkraising the flop with AK than leading if you 3bet? i doubt this holds true. simply put, i think you are preferring the flat call against 3betting because you find it easier to fold your hand after the flop. AK has the same value postflop whether you 3betted preflop or not. the only extra reason for chasing AK in a 3betted preflop is because you inflated the pot, but that is somewhat irrelevant. if flat calling out of the blinds with AK so that you can fold a missed flop is your reasoning for this, which i believe it is, then i propose that you avoid the obligation of gunning out pots with AK on missed flops even when you have 3betted it. AK is 3betted preflop for value, i dont think flat calling makes up the value you gain preflop. only mathematical analysis will be able to dispute this. i challenge you to attempt developing sound mathematical evidence that your way is more profitable before attempting it in gameplay.

Alobar

01-17-2005, 06:04 AM

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

7,519,590 games 17.719 secs 424,380 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)

Hand 1: 31.2039 % [ 00.31 00.00 ] { T9s }
Hand 2: 15.4708 % [ 00.15 00.01 ] { AJo }
Hand 3: 26.2852 % [ 00.26 00.00 ] { 55 }
Hand 4: 27.0401 % [ 00.26 00.01 ] { AKo }

helpmeout

01-17-2005, 06:15 AM

And how often is a preflop raiser going to have an Ace or a King giving you less outs?

There are also a lot of players who play any Ace or KT Kxs type hands.

I think with 3-4 players seeing the flop you need to improve. With a preflop raiser and "any ace" callers you have less outs to hit a flop.

Your equity edge is small, if you do have one. Against T9s type hands you arent looking too good.

Your position sucks which is definately -EV.

By limping you gain deception and can make up bets later when Mr AJ thinks he is best.

Against very loose raisers or less players go ahead and 3bet but against typical big Ace or big King raisers with a few limpers just call.

sthief09

01-17-2005, 07:06 AM

I'd be less apt to 3-bet if there was a cold caller in between. if there's a limper, he'll often fold when faced with another 2 bets. also, as for playing in multiway pots, you give up so much by not 3-betting AK. your hand is so far superior to theirs, that you'll be hard pressed to make up postflop what you failed to gain preflop.

however, if there's a raise and it's folded to me in the BB, I just call with AK, ensuring I can get to showdown. if I 3-bet, I'll always bet the flop and often times get raised.

sthief09

01-17-2005, 07:10 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

7,519,590 games 17.719 secs 424,380 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)

Hand 1: 31.2039 % [ 00.31 00.00 ] { T9s }
Hand 2: 15.4708 % [ 00.15 00.01 ] { AJo }
Hand 3: 26.2852 % [ 00.26 00.00 ] { 55 }
Hand 4: 27.0401 % [ 00.26 00.01 ] { AKo }

[/ QUOTE ]

first of all, those are 3 damn good hands. you'll very rarely be against such quality hands. more often, you'll be against hands A3o, Q8s, and QTo. second of all, my poker stove isn't working for some reason, but I think if you changed that AJo to QJo, AKo would have a big edge.

sthief09

01-17-2005, 07:16 AM

[ QUOTE ]
And how often is a preflop raiser going to have an Ace or a King giving you less outs?

There are also a lot of players who play any Ace or KT Kxs type hands.

I think with 3-4 players seeing the flop you need to improve. With a preflop raiser and "any ace" callers you have less outs to hit a flop.

Your equity edge is small, if you do have one. Against T9s type hands you arent looking too good.

Your position sucks which is definately -EV.

By limping you gain deception and can make up bets later when Mr AJ thinks he is best.

Against very loose raisers or less players go ahead and 3bet but against typical big Ace or big King raisers with a few limpers just call.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't really know where you're going with that because some of your points seem to contradict each other. But to say that your equity edge is small against the crap that I see 10/20 6m players playing is just wrong. T9s is a quality hand, as is 55. As I said in my other post, you're going to see dominated, offsuit big cards a lot more often. hands like KJo, KTo, and Ax. the only way I'm not pumping AK preflop is if I'm headsup and going to showdown, and raising won't benefit me much. I don't know for sure, but I really believe that if you made a fair range of a limper, a raiser, and a cold-caller, you'd be at least 30% hot and cold

Guy McSucker

01-17-2005, 08:01 AM

[ QUOTE ]

however, if there's a raise and it's folded to me in the BB, I just call with AK, ensuring I can get to showdown. if I 3-bet, I'll always bet the flop and often times get raised.

[/ QUOTE ]

This piqued my interest.

Are you saying that in this situation you make a preflop decision to see the showdown regardless? And then play the hand to get there cheaply if you completely miss?

Do you change your mind and bail out ever?

Guy.

kiddo

01-17-2005, 08:15 AM

[ QUOTE ]
There are few feelings worse than the dread of 3betting out of the SB with AK, seeing a flop of Q98, and having 4 people to act behind you.

[/ QUOTE ]

With same logic u cant 3bet JJ against a large field because more then half of the times (60%?) you will see a flop with overcards to your pair and that will be tricky to play out of position.

With AK you will hit topppair, topkicker 1/3 and many of those times u will be domnating someone, they are calling for a 3 outer. Easy 3bet.

But on flop u can sometimes check-fold. For example J85hearts and u with no hearts. Or 875 and all players behind u staying in.

sthief09

01-17-2005, 08:17 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Do you change your mind and bail out ever?

[/ QUOTE ]

that's what I've been working on.

Party Poker 10/20 Hold'em (6 max, 6 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is BB with A/images/graemlins/spade.gif, K/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
3 folds, Button raises, 1 fold, Hero calls.

Flop: (4.50 SB) 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets, Hero calls.

Turn: (3.25 BB) J/images/graemlins/spade.gif (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets, Hero calls.

River: (5.25 BB) K/images/graemlins/spade.gif (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets, Hero raises, Button folds.

Final Pot: 8.25 BB

Party Poker 10/20 Hold'em (6 max, 4 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is BB with A/images/graemlins/heart.gif, K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
1 fold, Button raises, 1 fold, Hero calls.

Flop: (4.50 SB) 2/images/graemlins/club.gif, 5/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets, Hero calls.

Turn: (3.25 BB) J/images/graemlins/spade.gif (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets, Hero calls.

River: (5.25 BB) 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets, Hero calls.

I thought this river decision was pretty tough

Final Pot: 7.25 BB

Party Poker 10/20 Hold'em (6 max, 5 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is BB with A/images/graemlins/heart.gif, K/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
UTG raises, 2 folds, Hero calls.

Flop: (4.50 SB) 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif, T/images/graemlins/heart.gif (3 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets, Hero raises, UTG 3-bets, Hero caps, UTG calls.

Turn: (6.25 BB) A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (3 players)
Hero bets, UTG calls.

River: (8.25 BB) 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif (3 players)
Hero checks, UTG checks.

Final Pot: 8.25 BB

Party Poker 10/20 Hold'em (6 max, 6 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is BB with K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, A/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
1 fold, MP raises, 3 folds, Hero calls.

Flop: (4.50 SB) 3/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 8/images/graemlins/club.gif (2 players)
Hero checks, MP bets, Hero calls.

Turn: (3.25 BB) T/images/graemlins/spade.gif (2 players)
Hero checks, MP bets, Hero calls.

River: (5.25 BB) J/images/graemlins/spade.gif (2 players)
Hero checks, MP checks.

Final Pot: 5.25 BB

and one where I didn't just call

Party Poker 10/20 Hold'em (6 max, 6 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is BB with K/images/graemlins/club.gif, A/images/graemlins/club.gif.
2 folds, CO raises, 2 folds, Hero 3-bets, CO calls.

Flop: (6.50 SB) 8/images/graemlins/club.gif, T/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif (2 players)
Hero bets, CO calls.

Turn: (4.25 BB) J/images/graemlins/spade.gif (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets, Hero calls.

River: (6.25 BB) 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets, Hero folds.

Final Pot: 7.25 BB

Alobar

01-17-2005, 08:38 AM

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

5,665,972 games 10.578 secs 535,637 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)

Hand 1: 23.5439 % [ 00.23 00.00 ] { T9s }
Hand 2: 22.4031 % [ 00.22 00.00 ] { QJs, QJo }
Hand 3: 22.2185 % [ 00.22 00.00 ] { 55 }
Hand 4: 31.8346 % [ 00.32 00.00 ] { AKo }

---

Trix

01-17-2005, 09:03 AM

Atleast 3bet the steals...I can see calling against a tight UTG raiser HU, but against the others you are just throwing away money.

The CR attempt with AhKh was was pretty optimistic /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

sthief09

01-17-2005, 09:04 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Atleast 3bet the steals...I can see calling against a tight UTG raiser HU, but against the others you are just throwing away money.

The CR attempt with AhKh was was pretty optimistic /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

my opponent there was Chris Daddy Cool. I wanted to embarrass him

DrGutshot

01-17-2005, 01:58 PM

seems like it can't possibly take into account all the variables of postflop play.

I for one give it 0% credibility.

(I feel like an old person ranting against modern technology)

-DrG

Rubeskies

01-17-2005, 02:07 PM

[ QUOTE ]
but I think if you changed that AJo to QJo, AKo would have a big edge.

[/ QUOTE ]

Doesn't AKo have a higher edge against AJo than against QJo?

TStoneMBD

01-17-2005, 02:19 PM

Ts 9s 363598 33.48 720177 66.31 2233 0.21 0.335
5d 5h 271163 24.97 812612 74.83 2233 0.21 0.250
Kc Ad 281910 25.96 788377 72.59 15721 1.45 0.266
Jc Ah 153616 14.15 916671 84.41 15721 1.45 0.148

Ts 9s 284490 26.20 799790 73.64 1728 0.16 0.262
5d 5h 228419 21.03 855861 78.81 1728 0.16 0.211
Kc Ad 342758 31.56 741522 68.28 1728 0.16 0.316
Jc Qh 228613 21.05 855667 78.79 1728 0.16 0.211

AK may be a better hand against AJ heads up, but in multiway you don't want one of your outs shared as you need to improve to win the pot, as when heads up you dont.

sthief09

01-17-2005, 02:27 PM

it's better than nothing