Too weak?

[Muisyle]

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (8 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

BB ($68.75)
UTG ($93.75)
UTG+1 ($48)
Hero ($46.5)
MP2 ($42.5)
CO ($18.85)
Button ($61.92)
SB ($34.05)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with J/images/graemlins/club.gif, J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif. UTG+1 posts a blind of $1. SB posts a blind of $0.5.
UTG folds, UTG+1 (poster) checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $5</font>, MP2 folds, CO folds, Button folds, SB (poster) folds, BB folds, UTG+1 calls $4.

Flop: ($11.50) 3/images/graemlins/heart.gif, T/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 6/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 bets $4</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $10</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 raises to $20</font>, Hero folds.

[Raven]

I would put him all-in if he is not a tight conservative player who would only do it with 2 pair or a set. AT, a flush draw or a flush draw with a pair are all possible hands. There is already 30 $ in the pot and you have about 30 $ left, you need to win 1/3 of the time to be correct. Even if he have 2 pair you win 25.5 % of the time. Push.

[TheWorstPlayer]

If he's decent, you are drawing to 2 outs.

[Muisyle]

He is posting out of position. This is the first hand.

[tommo]

Its hard to tell if he's decent. Unless I'm confused about something, I think an important point of this post was that the person just joined the table. (maybe I'm wrong, but is that why he posted pf?)

Anyway, given that he posted preflop and we don't really know him I think he could have looked down at QQ and thought, cool beans I'll check and hope somebody tries to pull a steal. He could also easily have A10 or 1010. However, it is more likely that he would pull the reraise on the flop with 1010 JJ QQ or one of the other sets (66 and I can't remember the other card, 88?) than with A10.

In response to the first reply, he most certainly does not have flush draw + pair as I don't think he could be holding A6s, although 67 or 56 hearts is a possibilty but still this is awfully aggressive for the average player with hearts and a pair (not to mention that this is only 2 possibilities whereas with a set he could have made it with 6 different pf hands).

I also feel that its a rare player who will play a flush draw semi-bluff this way. Not to mention, a player is more likely to bet AKs or AQs preflop than 1010 JJ or QQ (especially given that he posted preflop and its just so easy to hit that check button).

Basically, the main element that him being a new player brings in is that when we measure what we put him on we have to guess what the average player would do (something like using bayes theorem to calculate the probability that a random player with a random hand would make these moves to guess what hand he has)

Maybe I'm wrong here. But I feel like folding is the correct answer. My guess on what happened is he hit a set (maybe 10s maybe something else) bet small hoping you would raise and then came over the top. I would fold.

[soah]

[ QUOTE ]
If he's decent, you are drawing to 2 outs.

[/ QUOTE ]

But what if he's a partypoker player?

[Raven]

I have to agree with you that a flush draw is not much likely here. I tend to give people on party not much credit for their hand, and I'm often amaze on their calls. But without knowing him a fold is correct.

[TheWorstPlayer]

Then obviously he has TPTK, the best hand to min-raise with!

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (6 max, 6 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

saw flop|<font color="#C00000">saw showdown</font>

<font color="#C00000">Button ($38.14)</font>
SB ($66.2)
BB ($28.24)
UTG ($25)
MP ($38.85)
<font color="#C00000">Hero ($27.65)</font>

Preflop: Hero is CO with 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif. SB posts a blind of $0.25. UTG posts a blind of $0.5.
UTG (poster) checks, MP calls $0.50, Hero calls $0.50, Button calls $0.50, SB (poster) completes, BB checks.

Flop: ($3) 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 5/images/graemlins/club.gif, 4/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(6 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, UTG checks, MP checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $3</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises to $6</font>, SB folds, BB folds, UTG folds, MP folds, Hero calls $24.15 (All-In), Button calls $21.15.

Turn: ($57.30) 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players, 1 all-in)</font>

River: ($57.30) Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players, 1 all-in)</font>

Final Pot: $57.30

Results in white below: <font color="#FFFFFF">
Hero has 5d 5s (flush, queen high).
Button has 8c As (flush, ace high).
Outcome: Button wins $57.30. </font>

[tommo]

what was the point of that post? just to explain that people can have a set when they come over the top?

[TheWorstPlayer]

Umm...no. I was replying to Soah. I said that if he was a decent player he probably had a set. Soah asked "But what if he was a Party Player?" I then was (tongue-in-cheek) responding that Party players often like to min-raise with TPTK and then gave a (funny?) example where I got min-raised by someone with TPTK.

[tommo]

hey, sorry. I didn't mean to be sarcastic I just read my post and it came off that way. I was just missing the point of the post (stupidly I guess) and was wondering if there was something important I was misunderstanding.

[TheWorstPlayer]

No worries. I try to give people the benefit of the doubt (especially when they are relatively new) so I didn't read your post as sarcastic. That's why I explained. /images/graemlins/smile.gif