Falcons/Eagles

[ttleistdci]

Call it jumping the gun, but I can't wait to see the Falcons - Eagles game next week. The way the Philly D is playing today, it'll be interesting to see what solutions they come up with to stop Vick.

Minnesota never had a chance. Even with a couple Philly mistakes, the Vikes were just never in it. It's only a 17 point game in the 3rd, but IMHO the game isn't as close as the score says.

[mr pink]

this wasnt even close - eagles left a lot of points on the field. that field goal at the end of the first half and freddie mitchell's dropped td

go birds!!!!!!

peace - jeff

p.s. next week's game is gonna be nasti

[RunDownHouse]

The line is already up at Pinnacle, Phil -4. I really like the iggles in that spot, as much as I hate playing favorites, because I see the situation as very analagous to the Philly/Minny game today: a poor team overperforms the week before, then returns to form the next week.

Just have to wait and see where the money goes.

[CCx]

Yah, just got home a few minutes ago (posted from the bar earlier, free wireless, what?? who brings a laptop to the bar??? apparently quite a few people had one /images/graemlins/grin.gif)

I see it's already going to -4.5/-5 in spots, get it quick before it gets up near 6 or a TD....

[ttleistdci]

[ QUOTE ]
Yah, just got home a few minutes ago (posted from the bar earlier, free wireless, what?? who brings a laptop to the bar??? apparently quite a few people had one /images/graemlins/grin.gif)

I see it's already going to -4.5/-5 in spots, get it quick before it gets up near 6 or a TD....

[/ QUOTE ]

Line has already dropped from -5 to -4.5 Should I grab it now or wait for it to drop a little more?

[Victor]

[ QUOTE ]
a poor team overperforms the week before, then returns to form the next week.



[/ QUOTE ]

OK...please explain. How is atlanta a poor team?

[holeplug]

Should be a good game next week. Jim Mora Jr. can actually coach and gameplan for a team, which scares me alittle bit from the Eagles standpoint. The Eagles defense is playing so good right now and the one problem they had (stopping the run) was fixed when Trotter started to play at MLB. Other than a few Vick 25-30 yard 'Vick' plays I really don't think the Falcons can do alot against the Eagles defense.

[RunDownHouse]

I think that Atlanta is overvalued this year. Its more of a gut feeling than anything else, but as evidence I could point to games like the Chiefs earlier this year.

Yes, I know they have played well above that level as well. However, I think they suck, and I'm very happy that they blew out another sucky team (the Rams, who are my favorite team) so that the line is a bit inflated.

[CCx]

This line should be up around a touchdown, but is helped by Atlanta absolutely destroying a pathetic Rams team this weekend. Won't happen against the Eagles though....we'll see what the public has to say, but I'm already locked in at -4.5, expecting to lock in more during the week as the number stabilizes....

[craig r]

I think the money will come down on ATL. I would have waited if I was you (but you are betting as a fan I am sure /images/graemlins/cool.gif). Vick is this weeks Manning. He is a very good QB, but people will only remember him lighting up STL. Just like people remember Manning lighting up DEN. Plus everybody will discuss PHI "choking" the last 3 years in this exact game. I truly think the money will come in on ATL.

craig

[CCx]

[ QUOTE ]
I truly think the money will come in on ATL.

[/ QUOTE ]

I definitely agree here, but I dont think the line will go below 4 at all, even with all of the public vick-sucking....plenty of money to put on the game this week, just wanted to lock in early in case those with a ton of money push it the other way (as well they should, anyone picking the Falcons this week is throwing away their money, similar to the Vikings bettors this week)

[tolbiny]

"Other than a few Vick 25-30 yard 'Vick' plays I really don't think the Falcons can do alot against the Eagles defense"

The Falcons have the best rushing offense in football for more than ust vick. Dunn is also a very good back- and the falcons have two things the vikings were missing- a defense- and a tough running back (Mo williams could have fit the bill) In Duckett to get them the tough yards, and prevent teams from teeing off on vick and dunn. Should be a good game.

[dlk9s]

[ QUOTE ]
"Other than a few Vick 25-30 yard 'Vick' plays I really don't think the Falcons can do alot against the Eagles defense"

The Falcons have the best rushing offense in football for more than ust vick. Dunn is also a very good back- and the falcons have two things the vikings were missing- a defense- and a tough running back (Mo williams could have fit the bill) In Duckett to get them the tough yards, and prevent teams from teeing off on vick and dunn. Should be a good game.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree. I'm not a Falcons fan, but I was at the game this weekend, and it really wasn't all about Vick. He did have that long run on the first drive, but that was about it. With them, it's a ridiculous running game and tough D. Sure, the STL defense is pretty bad, but ATL put up over 300 YARDS on the ground. That's insane.

Plus, the Falcons have heart, unlike the Vikings.

I don't know who's going to win, but to say that the Falcons are bad is underestimating them. If anything, I see the Falcons as last year's Panthers.

[junkmail3]

[ QUOTE ]
Sure, the STL defense is pretty bad, but ATL put up over 300 YARDS on the ground. That's insane.

[/ QUOTE ]

Saying the Rams rushing D is bad is an understatement. (http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/statistics?stat=team&sort=rypg&pos=def&league=nfl& season=2&year=2004)

It's easy to make a gameplan against a weak rushing D when you're good at rushing.

When you can't run like you did last week and you have a rushing game plan, you're in trouble.

[dlk9s]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Sure, the STL defense is pretty bad, but ATL put up over 300 YARDS on the ground. That's insane.

[/ QUOTE ]

Saying the Rams rushing D is bad is an understatement. (http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/statistics?stat=team&sort=rypg&pos=def&league=nfl& season=2&year=2004)

It's easy to make a gameplan against a weak rushing D when you're good at rushing.

When you can't run like you did last week and you have a rushing game plan, you're in trouble.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm just sayin'. I'm just sayin'.

Keep in mind that the Falcons led the NFL in rushing (by 13 yards per game) and they didn't play the Rams every week. I know, you'll say that they have Vick and that skews the stats. Fine.

It won't be a blowout either way. I'm just sayin'. /images/graemlins/crazy.gif

[CCx]

[ QUOTE ]
It won't be a blowout either way. I'm just sayin'. /images/graemlins/crazy.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

Depends what you consider a blowout - I think the Eagles win by at least 7, more than likely double digits. If you define a blowout as 20+, I'll concede that I think you're right, it wont be a blowout....

[bball904]

[ QUOTE ]
anyone picking the Falcons this week is throwing away their money

[/ QUOTE ]

This thread is crazy. There's no way I'd lay over 3 points in this game. Let's really look at what these 2 teams did this weekend.

Atlanta crushes a hot (though admitedly not very good) St. Louis team indoors. Shutting the Rams down to 17 points in a dome says a lot about the Atlanta D. They will be very tough for Philadelphia to move on.

Philly, on the other hand, squanders opportunity after opportunity and scores on a very lucky fumble play. They were playing one of the worst playoff teams in history outdoors where the Vi-queens are even more horrible. On top of that, the Vikings best player was jogging around lame and dropping balls and yet they were still in the game. I think the iggles were somewhat flat and will be sharper this week, but they will need to be against a legitimate opponent.

I think this game is very close to a toss up and shouldn't be more than a 3 point line because it's in Philly.

I'm all over the 4.5 points.

[junkmail3]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
anyone picking the Falcons this week is throwing away their money

[/ QUOTE ]

Let's really look at what these 2 teams did this weekend.

...

Atlanta crushes a hot (though admitedly not very good) St. Louis team indoors.



[/ QUOTE ]

And by 'hot' you mean ...

Beating the Jets in overtime by 3.

And escaping at home against a team using it's second and third string?

Yeah, I guess I call that hot.


[ QUOTE ]

On top of that, the Vikings best player was jogging around lame and dropping balls and yet they were still in the game.


[/ QUOTE ]

These past two weeks have made me relize that I would never want Moss on my team. He may be great, but he's such an [censored] in every aspect of the word, it's just not worth it.

I don't think he prepared well enough for this game. He's just an asshat.

The eagles missed opportunities are what kept the Vikings around.


[ QUOTE ]

I think the iggles were somewhat flat and will be sharper this week, but they will need to be against a legitimate opponent.


[/ QUOTE ]

Yes. They were. But even that 'rust' was good. Now they have an edge back ... scary.

With their heads more in the game (i.e. not fumbling into the endzone, twice and not missing 3 points at the end of the half) Eagles will put up many points.


[ QUOTE ]

I think this game is very close to a toss up and shouldn't be more than a 3 point line because it's in Philly.


[/ QUOTE ]

Not gonna be close.

Once the Vicks get down (by two TDs) they'll need to start passing. Then it'll be 3 TDs, then 24 points, then Eagles rest and the score gets closer.

[ QUOTE ]

I'm all over the 4.5 points.


[/ QUOTE ]

Me too.

[Sluss]

The Falcons are the team that matches up best against the Eagles. I solid defense with good fast sure tackling linebackers (all adjectives that don't apply to the Vikings linebackers)to slow down Westbrook. Solid corners that can shut down Fred X and Todd "Please Don't Hurt Me" Stinkston. Look for a big game this week from Lewis.

Offensively the Falcons have two of the Eagles biggest problems. A Tiki Barber like running back in Warrick Dunn. Plus, the Falcons run a lot of bootlegs behind those runs. This slows down the Eagles, because one of their biggest strengths is that there are several guys in on every tackle.

I'm also interested to see how the Eagles will do against that Alex Gibbs Broncos blocking scheme. I don't remember a Denver Philly game in the past few years (CCx?). This might be what I base my pick on this game on. If the Falcons center keeps getting out to Trotter it could be a long day for the Eagles.

[CCx]

Sluss,

They have not played the Denver Broncos under Andy Reid - the last time they played the Broncos was in 1998, the last season under Ray Rhodes when they went 3-13. The game was in Denver, and the Eagles lost 41-16.

I certainly wouldnt base your opinion of this game on anything from that game - in fact, only four Eagles from that team are on the current roster (all on defense, surprise) - Dawkins, Douglas, Thomas, and Mayberry. Errr, also Koy Detmer /images/graemlins/grin.gif - The Eagles scored 161 points that year while giving up 344, wow! Thankfully, the next year was the beginning of the Andy Reid era.

[Zoltri]

I was going over the Falcons season....take note how easy their schedule was. I know many cappers put alot of emphasis on schedule strength in college football for good reason and I feel you cannot discount that angle for the Falcons either.

Sep 12 @San Francisco Won 21-19
Sep 19 St. Louis Won 34-17
Sep 26 Arizona Won 6-3
Oct 3 @Carolina Won 27-10
Oct 10 Detroit Lost 10-17
Oct 17 San Diego Won 21-20
Oct 24 @Kansas City Lost 10-56
Oct 31 @Denver Won 41-28
Week 9 BYE
Nov 14 Tampa Bay Won 24-14
Nov 21 @N.Y. Giants Won 14-10
Nov 28 New Orleans Won 24-21
Dec 5 @Tampa Bay Lost 0-27
Dec 12 Oakland Won 35-10
Dec 18 Carolina Won 34-31
Dec 26 @New Orleans Lost 13-26
Jan 2 @ Seattle Lost 26-28
Jan 15 St. Louis Won 47-17
Jan 23 @Philadelphia 3:00pm

[CCx]

I bleed Eagles green, but their schedule this year was pretty awful too - anyone who plays in the NFC had a pretty awful schedule this year.

[Zoltri]

Your right. I didnt check the Eagles.
That is what you get when you try to cap and play poker at the same time. /images/graemlins/blush.gif

[Sluss]

[ QUOTE ]
the last time they played the Broncos was in 1998

[/ QUOTE ]

Doh!!! Too bad. That was a pretty big tell for me. I wanted to hear like 2001. I still think this is going to be a tight game. I don't think the Eagles can blow out a team like the Falcons.

[craig r]

[ QUOTE ]
I think the money will come down on ATL. I would have waited if I was you (but you are betting as a fan I am sure /images/graemlins/cool.gif). Vick is this weeks Manning. He is a very good QB, but people will only remember him lighting up STL. Just like people remember Manning lighting up DEN. Plus everybody will discuss PHI "choking" the last 3 years in this exact game. I truly think the money will come in on ATL.

craig

[/ QUOTE ]

I guess I was wrong about this line movement. What is weird is most people are on ATL. So either a lot of pro money came down on PHI or the weather has forced the books to move their lines.

craig

[tolbiny]

No, the public has very short memory- the last team that they saw win was Philly, so they bet on Philly.
I was Hoping to get Atlanta +6, but it looks like the line is stuck at 5.5, probably be betting it early tomorrow along with the NE over.

[scott8]

Atlanta +6 at Bodog

[CCx]

leaving for the bar, just wanted to give one last

E-A-G-L-E-S EAGLES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

good luck today everyone! /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[Bacchus]

Sportsbook is offering half priced juice on NFL games until noon--ATL is still at +5.5.

[ttleistdci]

[ QUOTE ]

I guess I was wrong about this line movement. What is weird is most people are on ATL. So either a lot of pro money came down on PHI or the weather has forced the books to move their lines.

craig

[/ QUOTE ]

Not true...most people are on PHI for this game. That is one of the reasons the line has moved from -4.5 to where it's at now...-6.
Over/Under is now down to 36...6 point swing in 6 days.

[peachy]

Atlanta is far from a poor team. And for those of u who think they dont stand a chance obviously uve never followed this team let alone watched them. And we just dont have Vick and Dunn....we have Duckett, Brooking, and Peerless...our team isnt just ONE person and quite frankly Ty Detmer was a great addition to the team. I put my money on the Falcons, partilly b/c I believe they will win and partily b/c they r my home team and i despise the egales. It will be a close game bottom line and a very good game as well.

The only thing im worried about is the weather /images/graemlins/frown.gif
BUT!! then again who was it that beat GB in the freezing horrid weather making it the PACKERS 1st playoff loss AT HOME and IN those conditions....GO FALCONS!!!

[Peter_rus]

I just grabbed the over at 36. The field on tv looks great, and there's no snow. The only weather factor apparently will be the cold. I can see the Eagles easily putting up 28 and the Falcons 10.

[Homer]

[ QUOTE ]
I just grabbed the over at 36. The field on tv looks great, and there's no snow. The only weather factor apparently will be the cold. I can see the Eagles easily putting up 28 and the Falcons 10.

[/ QUOTE ]

20-30 mph wind, gusts to 40.

[asb165]

That's what they're saying, but I am in Philly now, and it is really not that windy. I just picked up the over to go for the middle. I had under 41.5 from last Sunday.

[CCx]

WOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

i'm at broad and jackson right now, the whole place is going crazy, this is unbelieveable!!!

[Homer]

[ QUOTE ]
WOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

i'm at broad and jackson right now, the whole place is going crazy, this is unbelieveable!!!

[/ QUOTE ]

How many blocks down Broad is that from the stadium? Are you posting from someone's apartment or something?

[CCx]

it's about 7 blocks from where the stadium area begins, i'm at my friend's house who lives at broad and jackson, everyone is outside going absolutely nuts right now - cars cant get passed anything, people everywhere in the streets, snow blowing everywhere - i just came in for a beer and to say GO EAGLES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[CCx]

wow, just got home, i'll try and post crappy camera phone pics tonite, that whole scene was just out of control - WOW ...real shot against the pats too, T.O. *WILL be playing the game - memorable night in philly tonight

[dlk9s]

Ok, so I was wrong about the NFC game being close. Well, it was close for the first half, at least.

That said, I made a goofy sweetheart teaser bet for kicks and won. My insane lines:

Atlanta +19 (phew)
Pats +10
ATL/PHI over 24
NE/PIT over 22

Crappy odds, but hey, it made the games interesting.

[ttleistdci]

[ QUOTE ]
Ok, so I was wrong about the NFC game being close. Well, it was close for the first half, at least.

That said, I made a goofy sweetheart teaser bet for kicks and won. My insane lines:

Atlanta +19 (phew)
Pats +10
ATL/PHI over 24
NE/PIT over 22

Crappy odds, but hey, it made the games interesting.

[/ QUOTE ]

Wow you're not kidding crappy odds /images/graemlins/grin.gif
What'd you move the lines, 13 points? Who offers you teasers like that?

[Peter_rus]

[ QUOTE ]
I just grabbed the over at 36. The field on tv looks great, and there's no snow. The only weather factor apparently will be the cold. I can see the Eagles easily putting up 28 and the Falcons 10.

[/ QUOTE ]
Wow! What a game! If only my predictions were always this close...

I think the Patriots are due for a letdown. This is the Eagles year.

[CCx]

[ QUOTE ]
wow, just got home, i'll try and post crappy camera phone pics

[/ QUOTE ]

Wow, I was real drunk, this picture appears to be the only one that turned out semi-okay....crappy phone pic from last night on South Broad Street:

http://home.comcast.net/~ccxspam/broadstreet1.jpg

[dlk9s]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Ok, so I was wrong about the NFC game being close. Well, it was close for the first half, at least.

That said, I made a goofy sweetheart teaser bet for kicks and won. My insane lines:

Atlanta +19 (phew)
Pats +10
ATL/PHI over 24
NE/PIT over 22

Crappy odds, but hey, it made the games interesting.

[/ QUOTE ]

Wow you're not kidding crappy odds /images/graemlins/grin.gif
What'd you move the lines, 13 points? Who offers you teasers like that?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yup - 13 points, from Bodog. It was called a "sweatheart" teaser. You get to move the line 13 points, but you lose the whole thing if there are any pushes. And I believe you have to do at least a 3-way teaser. The odds were 5/6, I think.

So, no big money involved, bad odds, but it was fun to move the lines like that. And it turned out I needed to for the ATL/PHI game. /images/graemlins/smile.gif