Dealing With A Chaser: Theory Question

[DavidC]

You're in a pot with one opponent on the flop. You're first to act. He's predictable:

*He plays about 40% of his hands, and he called your EP raise pre-flop, vs. an EP raise he might tighten up to like 35% of hands, but not much lowwr than that.*

1) He will call your flop bet with almost any two cards, up to 1.5x the pot.

2) He will call your turn bet, up to 1x pot with anything better than an OESD, including any piece of the board.

3) If at any given time he hits two pair or better he will raise.

You and he both have infinite stacks.

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You have A /images/graemlins/spade.gifK /images/graemlins/diamond.gif

The flop is K /images/graemlins/heart.gif7 /images/graemlins/heart.gif5 /images/graemlins/club.gif

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What do you do?

[DavidC]

The key is, what do you bet if the turn card is a flush card, how about if it's a straight card, how about if it's a brick?

Do you check?

Obviously if at any time your opponent raises your bet, you can fold.

However, if you check the turn we don't know what he will do, he could bluff it.

Hopefully that helps.
--Dave.

[jtr]

If statement 1) is literally true, that he will call a flop bet of up to 1.5 times the pot with any two cards, then surely we bet 1.5 times the pot as we have excellent equity at that point, and we want him to call.

On the turn, again taking your rules literally, bet the pot again. I think a good estimate is that we still have at least 60% equity even when the turn card is about as scary as it gets, e.g., 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif. I guess if the scare card comes and you're feeling in a weak-tight state of mind, you could make the most modest blocking bet you can get away with, but I don't think that's maximizing EV.

So if the guy is literally as predictable as you say, I think betting until raised is the best strategy. What can go wrong? When he hits, he lets you know, and on the many occasions when he misses you will manage to milk him of a large number of chips.

What about his river standards? Can we bet for value or is he going to lay down all worse hands to a big bet on the river? Will he call down all the way with king weak kicker, or some low pair?

[DavidC]

One quick bump.

I'll post my thought process here soon.

[DavidC]

By almost anything, I mean either a lone ace, or a gutshot, or a straight or flush draw, or basically anything that has a better chance of winning than 72o (excepting that may pair on this board). /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[DavidC]

Okay...

So you said:
-Bet 1.5x pot rather than 1x the pot, because of your chance at capitalizing on your equity (if he's got two pair, he'll let you know with a raise and you're golden if he doesn't).

You also say bet the pot again even if it's the scariest possible card.

Edit: (see my next question) You mentioned something about a blocking bet if I were feeling weak-tight on a scary turn: but I'm asking you, and I assume you say bet the pot (because you did). Correct me now or forever hold your peace. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

Out of curiosity, what's a blocking bet? I don't know enough about NL to know just yet... What is its purpose, how big is it in relation to the pot, on the turn, and when roughly would you use one?

It's tough to say about the river standards...

I'm sorry but I can't fill you in on that, for this exercise.

--Dave.

[DavidC]

Firstly, you made a wonderful point about "average equity" (not exactly, but that's what I took out of it).

Basically, before we bet the flop, it's possible that he could have a better hand than us, but since he often won't, we bet, right? Pretty intuitive, but in my own analysis, I'd forgotten it. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

Because of this point, I've changed my analysis of this situation, depending on what the turn card is.

I'd originally been trying to figure out if reverse-implied odds were killing me (in other words, was I giving these guys correct implied odds to chase).

Anyhow, the hands that he could have:

FF: 4.2:1
OESD: 4.875:1

(These are what I assumed for my initial analysis.)

A pair (if not matching our kicker): 8.4:1
Gutshot: 10.75:1
Pair matching our kicker: ~0
Top pair with a worse kicker: ~0
A lone ace: ~0.
*His equity with a pair does not take into account our redraw to a higher two pair or trips, because he can make the odds bad enough on the turn that we must fold and do not get to use that equity.

(Thanks JTR for pointing out these hands!)

What to bet:

1) Potting it down: (1+1+3):1 = 5:1
2) 1.5x flop 1x turn: (1+1.5+4):1 = 6.5:1.5 = 4.33:1
3) 1.5x flop, 1.5x turn: (1+1.5+6):1 = 8.5:1.5 = 5.66:1
4) 1.5x f, 0.75x t: (1+1.5+3):1.5 = 5.5:1.5 = 3.66
5) 1x flop, 0.75x turn: (1+1+2.25):1 = 4.25:1
6) 0.5x f, 1x t: (1+0.5+2):0.5 = 7:1
7) 0.5x f, 0.5x t: (1+0.5+1):0.5 = 5:1

*I'm pretty sure that it's the relationship between the flop and turn bet sizes that create the largest effect on implied odds for the caller.

Based on this information, I believe that it's best to bet 1.5x the flop all the time (because of average equity), and to bet 0.75x the turn if the card is scary, but to bet the pot if it's not scary.

Scary cards are those which could make a flush or an OESD, other cards aren't as scary.

If you do this, you avoid giving correct implied odds for them to chase, and you should make a bundle.

Any thoughts?

--Dave.

[boondockst]

I wish people at my level ($10 NL) paid attention to that stuff so i could move them off their draws...or if i'm having a really good night, i'm glad they don't pay attention to that stuff...

good info though...thought-provoking

[DavidC]

Well...

The reason I wrote this is to show you that you don't have to drive them off their draws.

Betting 0.75x turn doesn't give them odds to chase to the river, nor implied odds to chase to the turn.

The exceptions would occur when they have a short stack. I don't really know too much about how that would affect this situation, though I would guess, "adversely". /images/graemlins/smile.gif

Also, I haven't got a bloody clue as to what to do on the river. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[Sephus]

[ QUOTE ]
I wish people at my level ($10 NL) paid attention to that stuff so i could move them off their draws...or if i'm having a really good night, i'm glad they don't pay attention to that stuff...

good info though...thought-provoking

[/ QUOTE ]

when people say they wish their opponents paid more attention, it's like fingernails on a chalkboard.

you should always be glad you are playing with people who can't fold draws, whether they are hitting them or not.