Variance and 30 buy-ins

[IMTheWalrus8]

My recent run is just really, really bad. I keep telling myself it happens but I know some of the bad beats have affected my play. If I see another two- or five-outer hit on the river to beat me, I may just ... OK I won't do anything. But it's really unnerving. I am consistently getting all-in at crucial times with the best of it. And losing.

I'm on a run where I've lost 30 buy-ins at the $10 SnGs at Stars and Party. I've read here that 30 buy-ins is recommended, which makes me think that my play is well, frankly, not so good lately. Until three weeks ago I was a 4-month, consistent winning player at the SnGs.

A typical example: My KK against JJ, flop comes Q T 2 rainbow. I bet pot, he goes all-in, and I call. J comes on the river. I pretty much expect this anymore.

My question: What's the worst run any of you have had?

And when you're feeling like I do right now, do you take a break or persist, thinking that the cards will eventually turn for the better? The problem is that my confidence is totally shaken.

And is anyone willing to sweat a frustrated $10 player for an hour or so?

[Irieguy]

I dropped 30 buy-ins from Jan 1-Jan 7. But unless that happens again this week it looks like I'm going to have one of my best months yet.

It's completely routine, in my opinion. This is why statistical understanding is important. It helps with the confidence problem you are talking about. You are either a winner or a loser, and if you're a winner you will win.

It sounds like you need a break, because of your mindset. But if you can get your head straight, the answer is just to keep playing winning poker. Play 1000 SNGs and you should make at least $1000. That should help your confidence and your bankroll.

Irieguy

[Shorty35]

I had a similar horrible run and did the following:

1. dropped down from $30 to $20. I dont think the play is that much different; but I looked at it as the opportunity to play more buyins to stabilize my game.

2. Added a "routine" that I go though before each all-in move. I found that I was frequently well positioned and then made one big blunder that rendered my stack average or crippled.

3. I focused my play at Stars rather than Party since I figured that the slower blind progression would help my game.

The rsults were amazing. I quickly made back my bankroll and then took the $30s by storm. I have an unsustainable 68% ROI over my last 40 tourneys at this level. And, most important, I feel like I am back in the groove.

[stupidsucker]

Been there done that, and got real depressed about it too.

It happens.

However I still recomend taking a good look at your game if you dont already have over 1k tourneys under your belt. Leaks always increase variance.

[PrayingMantis]

[ QUOTE ]
2. Added a "routine" that I go though before each all-in move.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is one golden piece of advice, IMO, especially for players who are going through tough bad streaks, and generally working on their game. I've seen so many insta-push mistakes by all kinds of players, at any level, it's simply coting so much money to people. Whether it's an all-in bet or a call, a few more seconds of thinking about the situation (unless it's really an automatic one), can really improve your over-all game.

That's my expirience, at least. As an aggressive player (I assume all strong players here are basically like that), there's a price for being TOO-aggressive at certain circumstances. The short "thinking-breakes" I've started taking before putting all my chips in the middle, have really helped me.

Of course, you must know what to consider, what to look at, in those few more seconds of thinking, otherwise it doesn't mean much, I guess.