should i have read his hand and folded

i as playing in a 6/12 game. I new player sits down after i have been playing for three hours. I have no idea how he plays. I am in middle position with pocket jacks. three player see the flop. The flop 568 rainbow. I bet the flop and two callers. The is 10. I bet the new person sitting in late middle position raises. I don't think he has the straight but i failed to put him to a set of 8s. i call. I river the jack and check and then call. i win with a set. Should i have folded when he raised knowing that it was possible he now had the straight and i only had two outs that would not have been strong enough to win.


thanks for your help

For good or ill, if YOU figured he either had a straight or a set then, obviously, you should have folded. Well, I guess depending on how confident you were.


But lets say he for sure has 2 pair or better and will play 1-gapers (86) but not 1-gappers (74). He can have 65(9), 86(9) or T8(9) for 27 2-pair hands. If can have 55(3), 66(3), 88(3), or TT(3) or 12 sets. He can have 97(16) straights; for 55 total hands.


If he has 2-pair you have 8 outs; if he has a set you have 2 outs; if he has a straight you are drawing dead. With 44 unseen cards and 8 outs you are a 36:8 or 4.5:1 dog. Since this accounts for about half the situations you appear to be about a 9:1 dog overall. The pot appears to have about 8 bets.


So if you know you are beat you should fold. But things change drastically if he may be raising with a flush draw or a pair+draw like 98.


- Louie