87h pf. What are the odds I flop two pair, trips, flush, or straight?

[Grisgra]

Not sure how to calculate this using twodimes or pokerstove . . . I'd guess around 12:1 or so, but I'm really not sure. Note I'm not interested in OESD or four-flushes here.

Basically, I was in a home game where someone called a huge raise pf with 87h, and insisted it was good play because if he hit the flop hard he could bust me. He was only getting 7:1 odds on the call, though, making me think it was a fishy play. But I might as well check to make sure -- maybe I'm the fish!

I know that 78h beats AcAh 21% of the time, but that's seeing the whole board . . . not just the flop.

TIA!

[Grisgra]

Gotta bump this -- SOMEONE has to have the answer . . .

[PE101]

I wouldn't bet that my calculations are right, but...

According to Mike Caro's Web site (http://www.poker1.com/mcu/mculib_odds.asp):
The odds of the two pair flopping: 2.02%
The straight: 1.31%
The flush: .84%
That sums to 4.17% -> 22.9:1 against.

[PE101]

Don't forget the 0.02% of flopping the Straigh Flush...
(4999:1 against)
/images/graemlins/grin.gif

[Lost Wages]

Given any 2 starting cards there are C(50,3) = 19,600 possible flops.
With a max-stretch suited connector (JTs-54s) you can have the following flops:

Straight Flush
By inspection, 4 flops.
Probability = 4/19,600 = 0.0204%

Quads
By inspection, 2 flops.

Full House
With cards XY you need flops of XXY or XYY.
2*C(3,2)*3 = 18 flops.

Flush
C(11,3) minus the 4 straight flushes = 161 flops.

Straight
Max stretch connectors can make four different straight. Again, subtract the straight flushes.
4*4^3-4 = 252 flops.
(4*C(3,2) = 12 of those flops you will also have a flush draw)

Trips
With cards XY you need flops of XXZ or YYZ where Z is not X or Y.
2*C(3,2)*44 = 264 flops.

2 Pair
With cards XY you need flops of XYZ where Z is not X or Y.
3*3*44 = 396 flops.



<font class="small">Code:</font><hr /><pre> Flop Gives You # of Flops %Probability
-----------------------------------------------------------
Straight Flush 4 0.0204%
Quads 2 0.0102%
Full House 18 0.0918%
Flush 161 0.8214%
Straight 252 1.2857%
Trips 264 1.3469%
2 Pair 396 2.0204%
-----------------------------------------------------------
Total 1097 5.60%
</pre><hr />

Lost Wages

[Grisgra]

Thanks much! Youdaman!