Common A2 situation in Omaha High Low

[Ms 45]

What is the normal play for when you hold A2xx and the flop comes with only 1 low card. How about when you can add a backdoor flush draw and/or a backdoor straight draw to your hand? Or how about when your backdoor low is unlikely to be counterfeited if you flop low cards (like when you hold A23x and the flop comes with another low card).

I realize that pot odds should influence the decision, but I'm not sure how to properly adjust my outs for the number of times I'll get counterfeited or my backdoor high draws are no good.

For the more literal minded, I have an example of this sort of hand below, but I'm more interested in learning the general principles of what to do here... Thank you very much for your time and help.


loose/passive 2/4 game

4 players call, I raise from small blind with A /images/graemlins/diamond.gif K /images/graemlins/diamond.gif Q /images/graemlins/diamond.gif 2 /images/graemlins/heart.gif, BB and everyone else calls.

Flop J /images/graemlins/club.gif 3 /images/graemlins/heart.gif 3 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif

I check, checked to button who bets, I ???

[JRegs]

I don't know how much this helps, but if you have a naked A2 you have a 16% chance of making the backdoor nut low. I really don't know enough about the game to answer your question.

However, in general, I would consider raising in that situation. The button will often bet simply because it was checked around to him/her. Raising could isolate you with the button, see what develops on the turn.

[Poker Broker]

Fold. Fast. To be honest, that flop is a disaster for your hand. There are 24 cards out and the high has already gone. You have to ask yourself what you want to hit on the turn. You are out of position, and have to hit two perfect low cards to get quartered - maybe.

I'd forget about a back-door flush too, as there is already a pair on board and you have an extra diamond. If someone has as little as a single 3, you're in a lot of trouble. Playing a hand like this past the flop will cost you a lot of money.

[Matt Ruff]

[ QUOTE ]
4 players call, I raise from small blind with A /images/graemlins/diamond.gif K /images/graemlins/diamond.gif Q /images/graemlins/diamond.gif 2 /images/graemlins/heart.gif, BB and everyone else calls.

Flop J /images/graemlins/club.gif 3 /images/graemlins/heart.gif 3 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif

I check, checked to button who bets, I ???

[/ QUOTE ]

Fold, and save your money for a real hand.

-- M. Ruff

[johnnybeef]

Everyone who said fold in this situation is totally wrong. There is a decent sized pot in this situation. It is possible that the guy is holding jj, but it is much more likely that this is a steal attempt. Check raise him while it is still cheap and see the next card The only time(s) i would fold is if the pot is small (at 9 bets it is not) or if i had a read that this guy only bets the nuts. Folding in this situation has zero expectation, check raising has positive expectation when you add up all of the possibilities.

johnny

[Poker Broker]

I agree with what Matt Ruff posted. That hand looks far sexier than it really is pre-flop, and after the flop it's a complete dud. In fact, it is one of the worst flops you could have seen with your hand. Don't forget you still have 4 players to act who could be trapping you, and you don't even have 2 pair.

IF it were heads-up, I'd probably play the hand differently though.

[Matt Ruff]

[ QUOTE ]
Everyone who said fold in this situation is totally wrong. There is a decent sized pot in this situation. It is possible that the guy is holding jj, but it is much more likely that this is a steal attempt.

[/ QUOTE ]

JJ isn't the only holding you have to worry about. Even a single jack -- or a pocket pair -- puts you behind, but the big threat is A3.

Also, because this is a loose low-limit game, you can't count on your raise driving out the other three players. Anyone with an ace-low, particularly an A2, is liable to tag along to the turn here, to see if they've got a shot at grabbing half the pot.

[ QUOTE ]
Check raise him while it is still cheap and see the next card The only time(s) i would fold is if the pot is small (at 9 bets it is not)

[/ QUOTE ]

It's 11 bets (five players in hand, pre-flop raise, and now one more bet to you), but you only get all of it if you scoop. That's possible if one of your backdoor draws come in, but there a lot of ways the hand can go wrong, and someone still learning the ropes in Omaha is probably better off passing.

-- M. Ruff

[Matt Ruff]

[ QUOTE ]
IF it were heads-up, I'd probably play the hand differently though.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, heads-up would be a different story -- and if you knew the check-raise would get it heads-up, then I'd say go for it. But at a loose low-limit table I wouldn't be surprised to see multiple callers.

-- M. Ruff

[Matt Ruff]

[ QUOTE ]
What is the normal play for when you hold A2xx and the flop comes with only 1 low card. How about when you can add a backdoor flush draw and/or a backdoor straight draw to your hand? Or how about when your backdoor low is unlikely to be counterfeited if you flop low cards (like when you hold A23x and the flop comes with another low card).

[/ QUOTE ]

To answer your broader question: if all you've got after the flop is a backdoor low draw -- even a nut low draw with counterfeit protection -- check and fold. Backdoor flush and (particularly) straight draws add very little value in my opinion -- the main thing they do is increase the odds that the turn will improve your hand just enough to cost you a lot of money. And if the board is paired, as it is in your example, assume you are drawing against a full house -- it's possible you aren't, but you'll save a lot of money, especially when you are first learning Omaha, if you act as though you are.

-- M. Ruff

[Poker Broker]

I put IF in capitals because it looked as if johnnybeef had assumed that it was heads/up by his anwswer. However, it wasn't folded to the button, it was checked to the button. But I think we agree that the hand is a big money loser past the flop.

[johnnybeef]

[ QUOTE ]
and someone still learning the ropes in Omaha is probably better off passing.


[/ QUOTE ]

i didnt take that into account, for someone still learning it would probably be best to fold. however, for a player with some experience, my original asseessment would still be correct.

[Buzz]

[ QUOTE ]
What is the normal play for when you hold A2xx and the flop comes with only 1 low card.

[/ QUOTE ]

MS 45 - Assuming the XX part of your hand does not connect with some part of the flop, fold.

[ QUOTE ]
How about when you can add a backdoor flush draw and/or a backdoor straight draw to your hand?

[/ QUOTE ]

These normally do not add enough value. Figure a back-door nut flush draw as worth about one out. A backdoor straight draw is worth less.

[ QUOTE ]
Or how about when your backdoor low is unlikely to be counterfeited if you flop low cards (like when you hold A23x and the flop comes with another low card).

[/ QUOTE ]

Still not enough.

[ QUOTE ]
I realize that pot odds should influence the decision,.....

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes. Correct.

[ QUOTE ]
.....but I'm not sure how to properly adjust my outs for the number of times I'll get counterfeited or my backdoor high draws are no good.

[/ QUOTE ]

It can get complicated.

If there has been a pre-flop raise, and if there will be not be a raise on the second betting round, you might be getting good odds to see the turn. This is even truer if there have been multiple pre-flop raises but there will not be a second-betting-round raise.

Knowing if there will be a second betting round raise or not is a reason why you like to have position (act last). Obviously if you are on the button, the player in first position bets, and no one in-between raises, then you know there will be no second round raise. Of course, if the first position player checks and someone else bets, then even though you're on the button you're still not sure what it will cost you on the second betting round (because the first position better may check-raise). But you're usually better off if you're on the button. In any event, you might have to kind of play it by ear, but sometimes when there has been a pre-flop raise you're getting very favorable odds to call a single bet on the second betting round and see the turn.

But although you may have very favorable odds to call a single bet on the second betting round, if there were two bets on the first betting round, you don't have any better odds to call two bets on the second betting round, assuming a single raise on the first betting round, than you do to call a single bet on the second betting round, assuming no raise on the first betting round. In other words, one bet on the second betting round after one bet on the first betting round is roughly equivlalent to a two bets on the second betting round after two bets on the first betting round.

[ QUOTE ]
For the more literal minded, .....

[/ QUOTE ]

It's not as much being "literal minded" as knowing specificaly what we're dealing with. There are a lot of different possibilities when you consider all four of your cards. An ace plus a deuce in a starting hand might be good enough, as a general rule, to meet gluidelines established to qualify hands to see the flop, but after the flop we need to know what XX are.

[ QUOTE ]
.....I check, checked to button who bets, I ???

[/ QUOTE ]

If I counted correctly, there are 12 small bets in the pot from the first betting round. If all you have to call is a single bet, then you have 13 to 1 pot odds to call (plus implied pot odds). If everyone else is going to call this bet, then you'll have 17 to 1 pot odds These are very good odds, even if you are only playing for half the pot. But if the player behind you is going to raise, then the button re-raises, and then the player behind you caps it, you'll only be getting 5 to 1 odds for half the pot, and it looks a lot like you'll get quartered or sixthed for the low half.

And it doesn't have to be the player immediately behind you. Any of the checkers could suddenly come alive. That's a reason why the small blind is not a very good positional place to be.

So the answer is, "It depends."

That written, I'd normally not expect a check-raise from anyone, and I'd normally call a single bet.

I can't resist noting that you trapped yourself here by raising before the flop from the small blind with A2XX. Without the pre-flop raise, you clearly wouldn't have odds to continue after the flop. Now, anyone who is thinking about it puts you on A2XX (rightly or wrongly) and is playing accordingly. The betting on the second betting round, after your first round raise, is often typically likely to go just as it has, with everyone checking and then the button betting.

Looking ahead to a series of checks and then a bet by the button, if you were going to play here, you might have done better by betting yourself from your first position. In that case, you might have been more likely to have people limping behind you on the second betting round. (Of course you wouldn't like to see a raise here).

So we're back to "It depends." What it depends on is how your opponents who have already checked are going to act if you call the single bet. If you raised yourself, you might get one-on-one with the button, but with this flop and holding your hand, I wouldn't like to be one-on-one with the button.

Just my opinion.

Buzz

[gergery]

It's an extremely easy fold.

Your low will happen ~16% of the time, combining the turn & river cards. That's the same odds as hitting a gutshot in holdem. Except that A2 is for only half the pot, so instead of 4 outs like the gutshot, you should figure on 2 scoop outs, or about 10:1 odds against. And if it hits, you might still split or get 3/4.

Those outs are also for money you put in on the turn AND river. So if there are 10 small bets in the pot now, and you must put in one small bet on the flop and one big bet on the turn (say with two callers), that's 3 small bets risked to win 19(10+3+3+3), or ~6:1 odds.

So based just on your hand, with A2xx and the xx not helping you for hi, playing on for even 1 small bet is almost never correct.

In the example you listed, it might be correct to bet out, but only because you are representing a A3xx and hoping they all fold, not because your hand value justifies it. Figure your opponents will not have a 3 or JJ maybe 35%-50% of the time or so, so 1 small bet could win you 10 just 1 time in 3 and be profitable. But in a low limit loose game, i doubt it will happen very often.

--Greg

[Buzz]

[ QUOTE ]
Figure your opponents will not have a 3 or JJ maybe 35%-50% of the time or so, so 1 small bet could win you 10 just 1 time in 3 and be profitable. But in a low limit loose game, i doubt it will happen very often.

[/ QUOTE ]

Greg - I think 35%-50% is low. And I agree with you that you won’t be able to win 10 small bets one time in three.

If eight opponents were dealt cards, the probability of no three amongst the thirty two cards they were dealt is about 92%.
C(43,32)/C(45,32).

If four opponents saw the flop, and they have sixteen random cards between them, the probability of no three amongst the sixteen cards they hold is about 41%.
C(43,16)/C(45,16)

The best estimate of the probability of encountering an opponent with a three is clearly somewhere between 41% and 92%. It’s higher than 41% because people are more likely to play hands with threes. Aces are the favorite cards, and then (I think) come deuces, threes and kings. But it’s lower than 92%, because if four opponents have folded, one (or two) of them might have had no match in their hand for their three.

I think 56% to 80% is closer to the truth. 67% to 75% does not seem an unreasonable estimate, and if so, the odds of encountering an opponent with at least a set of treys seems about two to one or three to one. Hard to say exactly, but it’s high enough to be of genuine concern if you don’t have it.

Trouble is, even if the odds are only two to one, in a loose low limit game, MS45 is not even going to be able to buy the pot the one time in three when nobody has at least a set of treys.

I can almost guarantee several callers in a typical loose low limit game.

[ QUOTE ]
In the example you listed, it might be correct to bet out, but only because you are representing a A3xx and hoping they all fold, not because your hand value justifies it.

[/ QUOTE ]

The hand value doesn’t justify the bet. We're in agreement on that point. But I think there’s more to betting here than just stealing the pot.

Sometimes if you bet this flop (3-3-J), someone with a three will put you on the case three or a pair of jacks and might not bet the turn. Ironically, by betting the flop yourself, even though you’re not in position to make the standard hold ‘em free card play, you’ll get the free card anyway. Won't work all the time, but it will work sometimes. And in the meanwhile, you get a free look at the river. Well... not free, but by betting this flop you might get a peek at the next two cards for one small bet. (I’m assuming you don’t have whacko opponents). 16% of the time (about one time out of six) you'll get two favorable low cards and make the nut low. And then you can bet the hand and might scoop from a weak/tight opponent. If you can do that for one small bet, it's worth the investment.

That together with the slight chance of stealing makes betting the flop a better play than check/calling. In addition, by betting, you get a better idea of what you’re up against.

[ QUOTE ]
It's an extremely easy fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

That would be true if the pot had not been raised before the flop. However, as it is MS45 is getting some pretty juicy odds to play.

Even so, folding doesn't seem a bad play. But with certain opponents I can also see betting.

At any rate, if you do play the hand after this flop, I believe it is much better to bet yourself than check and call.

Just my opinion.

Buzz

[gergery]

[ QUOTE ]
I think 35%-50% is low. If eight opponents were dealt cards, the probability of a three amongst the thirty two cards they were dealt is about 92%. If four opponents saw the flop, and they have sixteen random cards between them, the probability of no three amongst the sixteen cards they hold is about 41%. I think 56% to 80% is closer to the truth. 67% to 75% does not seem an unreasonable estimate

[/ QUOTE ]

I said they will NOT have a 3 or JJ 35-50% of the time, which means that 50-65% of the time they WILL have a 3 or JJ. If you are saying they’ll have 3xxx 67-75% of the time, then add the times someone has JJxx on top of that, and you’re looking at 70-75% of the time one of your opponents will have 3xxx or JJxx.

[ QUOTE ]
Ironically, by betting the flop yourself, even though you’re not in position to make the standard hold ‘em free card play, you’ll get the free card anyway. Won't work all the time, but it will work sometimes.

[/ QUOTE ]
In this scenario you bet out…someone with a 3 doesn’t raise, but just calls, then you check the turn, and they put you on a 3 and check also? I think it’s much more likely that they’ll put you on a missed AAxx/A2xx hand and figure you were making a continuation bet on the flop. If you did have a 3 here yourself, would you check the turn? No, never, unless up against very LAG opponents you want to checkraise. I think its pretty unlikely an opponent would not bet a 3 in that scenario. Yes, it’s possible it might happen, but we’re dealing with probability and I don’t think its at all close to happening enough to make that correct.
[ QUOTE ]
then you can bet the hand and might scoop from a weak/tight opponent. If you can do that for one small bet, it's worth the investment..

[/ QUOTE ]
I don’t think anyone who sticks to the river will fold if you hit your low after seeing you check the turn. Either they’ve got some high, or they’re drawing to low –either way they won’t fold very often.
[ QUOTE ]
That would be true if the pot had not been raised before the flop. However, as it is MS45 is getting some pretty juicy odds to play.

[/ QUOTE ]
There are 10 small bets in the pot. Let’s say you bet and two of the four opponents call, and let’s say you get very lucky and even tho its ~70% likely someone has you beat, they decide not to raise fearing your represented 3, so you see the river for your 1 small bet. 10+3 = 13 small bets, and you get half the pot or 6.5 small bets. You hit the low 1 time in 6 as you said. So this is almost exactly an even money proposition. If no one raises on flop or turn. If no one else has A2xx.
By contrast, if your opponents fold say 15% of the time, then 1 time you’ll win 10 bets and 7 times you’ll lose 1 bet, meaning your 1 bet has an expectation of 3 bets over time.
Net, I still think this a very clear fold. But if your opponents are fairly tight, betting might be correct. But if it is, it is almost entirely because of the hand’s folding equity and has very little to due with the backdoor low’s marginal value.
--My two cents,
Greg

[Buzz]

[ QUOTE ]
I said they will NOT have a 3 or JJ 35-50% of the time

[/ QUOTE ]

Greg - Indeed you did. Sorry. My error. I just mis-read what you wrote.

[ QUOTE ]
In this scenario you bet out…someone with a 3 doesn’t raise, but just calls, then you check the turn, and they put you on a 3 and check also? I think it’s much more likely that they’ll put you on a missed AAxx/A2xx hand and figure you were making a continuation bet on the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

Possible.

[ QUOTE ]
If you did have a 3 here yourself, would you check the turn?

[/ QUOTE ]

No. I'd bet. But all of my opponents wouldn't.

[ QUOTE ]
I think its pretty unlikely an opponent would not bet a 3 in that scenario.

[/ QUOTE ]

Maybe so. Might depend on your table image. I sometimes have opponents seem to back away after I bet a flop.

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Yes, it’s possible it might happen, but we’re dealing with probability and I don’t think its at all close to happening enough to make that correct.

[/ QUOTE ]

Maybe not.

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I don’t think anyone who sticks to the river will fold if you hit your low after seeing you check the turn. Either they’ve got some high, or they’re drawing to low –either way they won’t fold very often.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree it's not likely, but it does happen. Honest. Throw that last bet in the pot and sometimes the whole pot is yours by default. (My opponents don't all play as well as you probably do).

[ QUOTE ]
Net, I still think this a very clear fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't like a call much. I prefer either betting this flop or check/folding.

[ QUOTE ]
There are 10 small bets in the pot. Let’s say you bet and two of the four opponents call, and let’s say you get very lucky and even tho its ~70% likely someone has you beat, they decide not to raise fearing your represented 3

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, that happens, but not necessarily a because they fear a three. It also happens that opponents will not raise here because they are slow-playing a big hand on the second betting round - but of course if that's the case they'll generally want to pump it on the next betting round. It also happens that after a bet opponents put the bettor on the monster under the bed, in this case a pair of jacks. But yeah, someone with an integrated hand containing a three and no high kicker (maybe something like 2345) might be wary of betting.

[ QUOTE ]
So this is almost exactly an even money proposition. If no one raises on flop or turn. If no one else has A2xx.
By contrast, if your opponents fold say 15% of the time, then 1 time you’ll win 10 bets and 7 times you’ll lose 1 bet, meaning your 1 bet has an expectation of 3 bets over time.

[/ QUOTE ]

And someone will have A2XX sometimes and you'll only get 1/4, even though we're agreed you don't want to continue with A2XX after this flop (except I'm still thinking you might want to play because of the size of the pot, but if so, I think you want to bet the flop).

I'm putting the chance of your opponents folding together with the chance of ending up making a low (and maybe even a scoop against a "weak" opponent) to justify the bet on this flop.

[ QUOTE ]
Net, I still think this a very clear fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

And you make a very good case for folding. Still it seems like it might be fun to try to get something here - and against the right group of opponents, seems like it might work. Be satisfying if it did work. I might try it under some circumstances, in spite of the excellent case you make for folding.

[ QUOTE ]
But if your opponents are fairly tight,

[/ QUOTE ]

They're not all consistently tight. Some opponents are loose before the flop and then tight after it. Or some opponents tighten up when the betting gets steeper. Some opponents are evidently so engrossed in their own hands that when they miss their draws they fold without consideration of pot size. Or some opponents are tight before the flop, but then loosen up to the extent of overplaying their starting hands after a missed flop.

(Not folding here might amount to just that).

Enough.

Buzz