Playing only the top 10% of hands.......

[protoverus]

Has anyone ever tried playing only the top 10% of hands(cume-wise) only? I recently moved up to 2/4 after a very long stint at .50/1. I decided to really play VERY tightly until I had the lay of the land scoped out...roughly 88's, A10s, K9s etc as the bottom limit in LP.

I've been astounded by my results over ~6000 hands with ~4/BB/100. Further, I'm a learning player not what I consider a good one.

I remember a line from one 2+2 book (TOP I think) where it was said theoretically it would be right to wait for the nuts every time, but that your opponents would quickly catch on and not pay off. What I've seen though is that people are very willing to pay off. If you add the fact that I rarely see the same people at my tables..what would make this idea incorrect? I know 6000 hands is a tiny, but the question revolves more around the strategy/theory than the result.

I know 2+2'ers are generally going to kill this if they notice it, but frankly I think we are a minority in the vast ocean of Party skin players and most everyone else is going to be oblivious.

Any thoughts?

Thank you,

Proto

[BottlesOf]

Try playing the top 18%. I think you'll do even better.

[brassnuts]

You're right about being paid off because most players do have their heads up their collective asses too deep to notice. However, while you most likely won't lose money playing this style, by limiting yourself to those range of hands, you're missing out on a lot of +EV situations. Unless you're absolutely horrible postflop, I think this is a bad idea.

[Schizo]

[ QUOTE ]
Try playing the top 18%. I think you'll do even better.

[/ QUOTE ]

Even better than 4/BB/100?

Guessing he didn't read the post...

[Rubeskies]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Try playing the top 18%. I think you'll do even better.

[/ QUOTE ]

Even better than 4/BB/100?

Guessing he didn't read the post...

[/ QUOTE ]

I'll wager my bankroll that 4BB/100 isn't his true winrate.

[Schizo]

6,000 hands isn't that much. I've seen weirder things happen over 6,000 hands, and I'm a noob.

[Rubeskies]

By true winrate I mean his actual winrate over hundreds of thousands of hands. His theoretical true winrate.

[BottlesOf]

heh, no I didn't, not really.

6,000 hands, is he kidding? I wipe my ass with 6,000 hands. See where you are after 60,000 hands, and then you'll have an idea, but not much more.

[belloc]

[ QUOTE ]
heh, no I didn't, not really.

6,000 hands, is he kidding? I wipe my ass with 6,000 hands. See where you are after 60,000 hands, and then you'll have an idea, but not much more.

[/ QUOTE ]

And if you've had chili?

[kpux]

[ QUOTE ]
I remember a line from one 2+2 book (TOP I think) where it was said theoretically it would be right to wait for the nuts every time, but that your opponents would quickly catch on and not pay off.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is in the chapter about the ante structure, I believe. Sklansky says that you could wait for the nuts every time if there was no ante at all. However, since there are blinds in 2/4, this doesn't apply.

You'll do much better if you play around 16% of your hands; I think JBB already said this. You're giving up way too much +EV just to avoid some variance.

[wuwei]

[ QUOTE ]
You're right about being paid off because most players do have their heads up their collective asses too deep to notice. However, while you most likely won't lose money playing this style, by limiting yourself to those range of hands, you're missing out on a lot of +EV situations. Unless you're absolutely horrible postflop, I think this is a bad idea.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is correct. As others have said, voluntarily playing 16-18% of your hands preflop is much closer to optimal. Start adding hands, which will give you a chance to improve your postflop play. Begin with hands in late position, where you have an advantage over others after the flop.

[27offsooot]

Since when is K9s in the top 10% of hands?

[amulet]

i find that on the days i do not get cards, or am in a very aggressive game and play 11% to 12% of my hands i do well. i think you are probably plaing slightly too tight if that is possible :-). a few additionaly hands probably have a positive ev. i think if you went to 15% you might make more $, but have bigger fluctations. those who suggest 18% to 20% are losing.

[sthief09]

how does one wipe one's ass with 6000 hands?

[BaronVonCP]

[ QUOTE ]
those who suggest 18% to 20% are losing.

[/ QUOTE ]

or they play well postflop and make lots of money

[7ontheline]

I think it's presumptuous to say that 18-20% VPIP is a losing strategy. Clearly, you will be playing more marginal hands and be put in more questionable situations, but that is why there is post-flop play. Certainly beginning players should play tighter, so they can stay in situations where their better hand selection gives them an initial advantage over their bad opponents. However, better players and players at higher limits should be able to play more hands. It also keeps them from becoming too predictable.

[protoverus]

hey,

Thanks for the replies...

I get the picture!

A few things: I'm not venturing 4 BB/hr as any kind of true winrate. In fact, it's unusual for me to be running that high. It's just where I'm at right know after a piddly amount of hands. Qualitatively, I'm finding it easier to make postflop decisions which has helped alot though.

K9s is near the 10% line when considering how it fares in a multiway pot (the kind I typically encounter at .5/1 and surprisingly more so far at 2/4). There's no ACTUAL 10% line that I can come up with since various factors influence hand strength (# of players, reads, etc). Sorry if I came across as dogmatic there.

Lastly, my postflop play isn't all that great. I think that I've had more success because the decisions have been easier as was pointed out. I fully intend to let the VP$IP creep up, but was simply trying to understand if staying super-tight would be wrong. I think I've seen enough of 2/4 to loosen up, though I have been surprised that the tables I've been at are overall looser preflop than .5/1. The postflop play has been more difficult though with LOTS more raising and re-raising going on.

Thanks guys. I hope to post a few hands soon as some of the play at 2/4 has me mystified.

Be well.

[jason_t]

Lots and lots of hot girls with soft hands.

[protoverus]

7ontheline,

I guess that's what I'm getting at in some sense...

Better and higher level players need to play more unpredictably. In my considerable .5/1 and limited 2/4 play I have yet to see the need to vary much because people just call away with abandon. There have been specific instances where it became necessary but overall has anyone really had to mix it up at 2/4?

[Piers]

Assuming a full ten handed game.

If you are good enough post flop, I think you loose more by going from 18% to 10% than from 18% to 26%.

I think there is a steady downwards slope in return as you tighten up from the optimal pre flop tightness level, while there is however a plateau in the early twenties if you loosen up.

So I think tightening up is likely to have a more detrimental result than loosening up by a similar amount. As long as we are looking at number less than 10%. Once you are donating to over 30% of the flops there’s no recovery.

Oh I also don’t think it is clear what you mean by “only playing the top 10% of hands”. I was referring to VPIP above.

[protoverus]

You are right Piers. The 10% thing is unclear. I guess I meant it similarly as VPIP since the top 10% of hands would vary according to the table situation.

That's why I appreciate all the replies because they help point out some unclear thinking and force me to examine my thoughts more critically.

be well

[Trix]

[ QUOTE ]
I've been astounded by my results over ~6000 hands with ~4/BB/100

[/ QUOTE ]

You are the master.

[ZeeBee]

I'm guessing Johnny has a huuuuuuuge ass.

ZB

[TheMetetron]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
heh, no I didn't, not really.

6,000 hands, is he kidding? I wipe my ass with 6,000 hands. See where you are after 60,000 hands, and then you'll have an idea, but not much more.

[/ QUOTE ]

And if you've had chili?

[/ QUOTE ]

Obviously 7,000 hands in that case. I'm just curious who wants to use their hand to wipe JBB's bum?

[Cerril]

Just a comment or two on this, since the other stuff has been covered pretty quickly.

I would suggest not tightening up substantially from .5/1 to 2/4, but improving your postflop game at .5/1 until you're capable of winning with the 10% or so of preflop situations you're missing by sticking to a 10% VP$IP.

The skills needed to do well at .5/1 transfer highly - in both cases you're basically working on abusing people who play very, very poorly.

Incidentally the comment in ToP was right that you'd never make much money against observant opponents if you only waited for the nuts, but it's also right that you'd never make money against unobsevant opponents if you only waited for the nuts in a game with blinds and a rake.

I also don't think you'll improve your postflop play with the 11-20% hands (up to about 22% is possible at some tables) nearly as fast if you only move up slowly.

Some recommendations for unraised pots I would make though until you feel more comfortable -

Don't play small pairs through 77 from EP even in loose/passive games, drop the low suited aces as well, and KJ/AT.

In MP you can probably discard many of those same hands in any game, though extend your suited aces by a few notches and play AT. Instead of raising with middle pairs first in, go ahead and fold them.

In LP you can go ahead and discard the lowest pairs and the lowest suited aces. The bottom end of Kxs can be an autofold as well. Also don't try to steal with hands you'd otherwise fold. Stealing can account for a couple bets here and there but if you misplay them postflop you'll lose more than you'll gain when the blinds fold.

All of these situations are potentially profitable and you should look to add them in as soon as you start feeling comfortable with the texture. If you take my advice and stay at .5/1 (I went through each limit from .5/1 to 3/6, even though I'd played a lot of 5/10 before deciding I needed practice), play all the hands from the beginning and make sure you do your research (reading and posting) actively. Better to get a good game going out the gate than to have to make adjustments to a (marginally) successful game that actually hurt your winrate at first.

[arkady]

7,000 hands if Johnny had chili.

[HajiShirazu]

I think this would be correct if it were not for the relatively high rake in these games. There are a lot of hands that are right around neutral or slight losers in that 18-26% range that would be winners in a rakeless game.

[protoverus]

>>>>>>>you are the master<<<<<<<<<<

And you are a little punk.

The 4 BB thing was 'astounding' to me because it was considerably higher than I had experienced before and I was posting to get opinions on whether that was directly related to playing super tight. It was 'astounding' PRECISELY because I'm really not that good. I obviously rarely post, don't need affirmation from the community, and wonder why you had to waste 2 seconds of your time making such an inane comment when I made it clear that it was NOT the thrust of my post.

Silly rabbit... :shaking head sadly:

[protoverus]

Awesome Cerril. You make sense. I have been playing more hands(17ish%)at .5/1 but have wondered if I'm actually learning the postflop skills needed to move on... You've been there, done that and say, 'yes.' I'll respect that and consider giving it more time.

Thank you.