Do you and when do you raise? [Archive] - Two Plus Two Older Archives

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RED_RAIN

01-15-2005, 06:15 AM

Opponent has description of

VP$IP: 15 PFR: 4.5 AGG: 0.64
WSD: 32 W$SD: 50 W$SD-BR: 100
FSB: 0 FBB: 0 FBB-HU: 0
STEAL: 0 CR: 3.77 Fold-RB: 20
PFR w/: KQs(1) AJs(1)}}

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is SB with A/images/graemlins/heart.gif, A/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
UTG calls, UTG+1 folds, MP1 calls, MP2 folds, MP3 calls, CO folds, Button raises, Hero 3-bets, BB folds, UTG calls, MP1 calls, MP3 calls, Button calls.

Flop: (16 SB) Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 5/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 2/images/graemlins/spade.gif (5 players)
Hero bets, UTG calls, MP1 folds, MP3 folds, Button raises, Hero calls, UTG calls.

Do we give him credit of a set?

Turn: (11 BB) 2/images/graemlins/club.gif (3 players)
Hero checks, UTG checks, Button bets, Hero calls, UTG calls.

River: (14 BB) 7/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (3 players)
Hero checks, UTG checks, Button bets, Hero calls, UTG calls.

I was thinking of raising here, but I thought maybe that I could get an overcall on the river by UTG and be happy with that.

Final Pot: 17 BB

WillMagic

01-15-2005, 06:25 AM

Are you really giving him credit for a set after a single flop raise? That's a ton of credit, and more than he deserves. I think your best course of action is to call the flop raise and go for a check-raise on the turn, because that's the only way you are going to protect your hand here.

Will

MCS

01-15-2005, 06:31 AM

Raise the flop. It'd be nice to get UTG out of there. Bet the turn.

I need more evidence before I believe a set, even from a rock. Why can't he have KK or AQ?

DeeJ

01-15-2005, 06:35 AM

From the button AQ or KQ or even KK will raise and probably call a river raise. But since the overcall exists, you may prefer to bank that.

I think you're best, and since the pot is big I think a raise may be slightly more +EV. Not a huge problem either way.

MCS

01-15-2005, 06:38 AM

I meant to say I think the river is a close call. I really think you're best and I think it's read-dependent which way you go.

RED_RAIN

01-15-2005, 06:43 AM

With these stats, he doesn't have AQ, or KQ. He has As, Ks, Qs, that's all. I think that's pretty easy to see.

The reason I gave him insane amounts of credit is he would have capped with As more than likely.

He raises me when I 3 bet him leaning me more towards Qs than Ks. He has a 100% wins when bets or raises in combination of his showdown and win at showdown.

So I believe he has either Qs or Ks here.

Now with that deduction, is a raise somewhere warranted?, where?, why?

SamIAm

01-16-2005, 05:58 PM

How many hands do you have on this guy? You're putting a LOT of faith in these numbers, especially stats that have a smaller sample size. (You've only seen him on the flop 1/6 of the time. You've only seen him BET the flop even smaller than that. This makes for small sample-sizes.)

Anyway, I'd definitely 3-bet that flop. You want to kick-out UTG. You don't get to assume the guy has a set just because he raised you on the turn.
-Sam

RED_RAIN

01-16-2005, 10:20 PM

I have over 1000 hands on this guy.

He actually raised on the flop.

He ended up with Ks and my hand is good. I think the extra person on the river allows me to just call.