Too tight of a fold on the river? [Archive] - Two Plus Two Older Archives

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dauler

01-15-2005, 06:03 AM

I think I had been at this table for like 1 orbit or so when this hand came up, so I don't have any reads yet. My main concern is that I may be in the habit of folding strong hands to bets and raises on the river when a scare card comes, how would you change my play? Suggestions on all streets appreciated.

Party Poker 0.5/1 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 7/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, K/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
UTG folds, UTG+1 folds, UTG+2 folds, MP1 calls, MP2 folds, MP3 folds, CO calls, Button folds, Hero completes, BB checks.

Flop: (4 SB) 3/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (4 players)
Hero bets, BB calls, MP1 calls, CO calls.

Turn: (4 BB) 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif (4 players)
Hero bets, BB raises, MP1 folds, CO calls, Hero 3-bets, BB calls, CO calls.

River: (13 BB) T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (3 players)
Hero checks, BB bets, CO raises, Hero folds, BB calls.

Final Pot: 17 BB

Shillx

01-15-2005, 06:09 AM

I'm checking and calling one on this river. I don't want to tell people that folding questionable rivers is a good thing, but a fold is prudent in this spot. Any kind of decent hand reading skill will tell you that CO has a frush.

Brad

Reef

01-15-2005, 06:17 AM

next time check/call the river. CO just cold called and came along for the ride. This says either slowplayed monster or flush draw.

CWsports

01-15-2005, 06:35 AM

fold preflop

siccjay

01-15-2005, 09:35 AM

[ QUOTE ]
fold preflop

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree, it makes situations like this one MUCH easier haha

Wario

01-15-2005, 09:36 AM

Fold preflop, your hand is weak.

Flop and turn are good.

I really don't like the check/call river suggestions. 3 sevens is the best hand often here and by checking we are just missing bets all those times we are ahead. CO's coldcalling doesn't mean he had a flush draw, it means he had two cards!

I like bet/call on this river card.

Since you checked you should call the two bets, BB is probably just betting because you checked and he showed aggression earlier. CO will have something like a ten often enough.

dauler

01-15-2005, 08:45 PM

Results in white below: 
BB has Kh 3h (two pair, sevens and threes).
CO has 6d Ad (flush, ace high).
Outcome: CO wins 17 BB. 

I know that K7o isn't that strong of a hand, but on the one orbit that I had seen VPIP had been in the range of 45 percent and these were two of the looser players at the table who had limped, isn't it good enough that I can call for half a bet on the small blind and expect to win the maximum from them when I'm ahead and lose the minimum when I'm behind? I'm confident that my postflop play is far better than theirs.

As far as folding, I was thinking about it later and if I had been the button on that hand with T9s, I would have probably played it in much the same manner as this guy had. Check it out.

Party Poker 0.5/1 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is CO with T/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
UTG folds, UTG+1 folds, UTG+2 folds, MP1 calls, MP2 folds, MP3 folds, Hero calls, Button folds, SB completes, BB checks.

T9s on the button against no raise, a pretty standard call.

Flop: (4 SB) 3/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (4 players)
SB bets, BB calls, MP1 calls, Hero calls.

I've got 2 overcards and an open ended straight draw, it's possible I'm against a flush draw but I still think that a call is warranted here since I'm more than likely against some type of pair.

Turn: (4 BB) 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif (4 players)
SB bets, BB raises, MP1 folds, Hero calls, SB 3-bets, BB calls, Hero calls.

Calling two cold is somewhat questionable here, but I think that it's the best play. I'll say I'm calling 2.5 cold because I expect SB to sometimes reraise, but other times call, so my effective pot odds on this street would be 9 to 2.5. You can also expect to get paid 1.5 more bets from each player on the river if you make your straight, so make that 12 to 2.5 on a draw with about 8 outs, possibly more if I'm just up against an overplayed 8, possibly less if I'm against a boat or a card that makes me makes their boat. From the way that this has played out a flush draw is very unlikely for our opponents, I'll add to this the information that the BB is a habitual bluffer because I would have been sitting down long enough to know that by now, and SB wouldn't have played a flush draw like this unless perhaps he had T9, 45, 56, 67 of diamonds. So add to our effective odds the possibility of a profitable bluffing opportunity on the river and I think that calling is the best play.

River: (13 BB) T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (3 players)
SB checks, BB bets, Hero raises, SB folds, BB calls.

SB has checked, so either he's too lag and overplayed an 8 and finally decided that the board looked sufficiently threatening, or he's tight and realized that the diamond may have screwed him since the button(me) has been looking like he's drawing the whole way. BB raises when he sees the weakness and the scare card on board, and since I know that he's a habitual bluffer I'm likely to have the better hand. I'm not sure whether I have a better hand than SB, but from previous actions he has either overplayed an 8 and wouldn't have the willpower to lay it down, or he's a tight and thinking player and it's quite possible he would lay down 3 7s to an "obvious" flush draw, so raising both for value and as a bluff at the same time becomes far and away the best play in my opinion.

Final Pot: 17 BB

Results in white below: 
BB has Kh 3h (two pair, sevens and threes).
Hero has Ts 9s (two pair, tens and sevens).
Outcome: Hero wins 17 BB. 

Now clearly this sophisticated thinking won't be something I'm up against often, it will be something more like "T9s, call. Strong draw, call. Still got an open ender, call. I backed into top pair, raise". I think a flush draw is more common in this spot than T9, but the pot is laying 8.5 to 1 odds, do you think I'll be dragging this pot less than 12 percent of the time? Unfortunately what was going through my mind is "I'm probably beaten, I don't want to invest more money in this pot", not what percentage of the time I'm beaten. Do you still think that folding was the right call?

Entity

01-15-2005, 08:52 PM

[ QUOTE ]
isn't it good enough that I can call for half a bet on the small blind and expect to win the maximum from them when I'm ahead and lose the minimum when I'm behind?

[/ QUOTE ]
No. This is an asbolutely clear fold preflop.

I think your river fold for two cold is fine.

Rob

davelin

01-15-2005, 08:57 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I know that K7o isn't that strong of a hand...isn't it good enough that I can call for half a bet on the small blind and expect to win the maximum from them when I'm ahead and lose the minimum when I'm behind?

[/ QUOTE ]

Losing 4BB isn't a minimum.

dauler

01-15-2005, 09:54 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Losing 4BB isn't a minimum.

[/ QUOTE ]

I was winning 10BBs 83 percent of the time and losing 4BBs 16 percent of the time with that turn, I think that qualifies as winning the maximum and losing the minimum.

davelin

01-16-2005, 01:47 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Losing 4BB isn't a minimum.

[/ QUOTE ]

I was winning 10BBs 83 percent of the time and losing 4BBs 16 percent of the time with that turn, I think that qualifies as winning the maximum and losing the minimum.

[/ QUOTE ]

*shrug* Why lose any more with this trashy hand?

dauler

01-16-2005, 02:00 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Losing 4BB isn't a minimum.

[/ QUOTE ]

I was winning 10BBs 83 percent of the time and losing 4BBs 16 percent of the time with that turn, I think that qualifies as winning the maximum and losing the minimum.

[/ QUOTE ]

*shrug* Why lose any more with this trashy hand?

[/ QUOTE ]

I might be inclined to take your advice seriously if you were to provide some type of reasoning with it. Simply calling a hand trash even at a time where it had clear value is irrational, I thought that we were in the business of finding edges and investing heavily when we have them? In this game I had seen that people were in the habit of going too far with their hands, so if I happened to make a hand that was favored to win I'd be likely to be paid off by worse hands, yet I wouldn't give much up when I was losing. If you have an actual explanation for why this is a trash hand that can't make a profit except that SSH hasn't included it in their recommendation charts, such as it won't make a winning hand often enough even against these weak players for the extra half a small bet, please let me know, because right now you sound dogmatic and nuts.

ArturiusX

01-16-2005, 03:41 AM

dauler, you're never going to win money with K7o in micro limits. You're dominated, plenty of overcard, and you can't make any big hands without a miracle.

But feel free to play it and record your results.

Freudian

01-16-2005, 04:11 AM

[ QUOTE ]

I might be inclined to take your advice seriously if you were to provide some type of reasoning with it. Simply calling a hand trash even at a time where it had clear value is irrational, I thought that we were in the business of finding edges and investing heavily when we have them? In this game I had seen that people were in the habit of going too far with their hands, so if I happened to make a hand that was favored to win I'd be likely to be paid off by worse hands, yet I wouldn't give much up when I was losing. If you have an actual explanation for why this is a trash hand that can't make a profit except that SSH hasn't included it in their recommendation charts, such as it won't make a winning hand often enough even against these weak players for the extra half a small bet, please let me know, because right now you sound dogmatic and nuts.

[/ QUOTE ]

You aren't in the business of finding edges when you play K7o. Not even out of SB. So when people say you should dump it preflop it is because it is a hand that will lose you money in the long run. They aren't saying you can't win a pot with it. People aren't giving advice for this specific hand, but general advice. It is a dog because it rarely makes the best hand, and when you make a hand it will often be the second best hand costing you a lot of money.

You are of course free to ignore what everyone else is saying if you think you can squeeze some +EV out of this hand.

If you want some empirical evidence that it is a dog, feel free to check out the stats from Pokerroom. http://www.pokerroom.com/games/evstats/totalStats.php?order=value

bottomset

01-16-2005, 04:25 AM

you aren't gonna turn trips with K7o very often, that and you only make 2pair what 2% of the time on the flop ... you are often dominated make a good hand less than 3% of the time

what more evidence do you need .. check your stats you won't make money even at discounted price

dauler

01-16-2005, 05:11 AM

Thanks for the stats, I'm sorry if I sounded stubborn about K7o having profitability, it just sounded like people had it labeled as trash under normal circumstances and weren't taking into account different situations where it could become profitable. I still believe that it can be profitable when the only people who have entered the pot are liable to have called with even worse hands and whose postflop play is equally abysmal, especially considering it's only half a bet. Thanks for the general advice though, 2+2 has already done wonders for improving my play.

Jaran

01-16-2005, 05:19 AM

[ QUOTE ]
...isn't it good enough that I can call for half a bet on the small blind and expect to win the maximum from them when I'm ahead and lose the minimum when I'm behind?

[/ QUOTE ]

Offsuit trash for 1/2 a sb is still offsuit trash. Fold pf.

-Jaran

Kenrick

01-16-2005, 07:03 AM

I'm folding preflop without a thought and then thinking about calling the river but then folding to the two-bet. With a bigger pot, I might call, but not be happy about it. I'd be more inclined to bet the river after 3-betting and folding to aggression. It's a tough decision the way the turn and river was played.

Ks is trash enough, Ko is for garbage day.