AKs River Decision [Archive] - Two Plus Two Older Archives

The Dude

01-15-2005, 05:35 AM

Party Poker 15-30, 9 Handed.

SB in this hand is a 25/9'er with 1.8/1.5/1.5 numbers postflop.

Preflop:
MP limps, Hero raises in the CO w/ A/images/graemlins/spade.gif K/images/graemlins/spade.gif. Button calls cold, SB 3-bets, MP calls, Hero caps, everyone calls.

Flop: (13 SBs) K/images/graemlins/heart.gif T/images/graemlins/heart.gif 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif (4 Players)
Checked to Hero who bets, button calls, SB raises, MP folds. Hero 3-bets, button calls, SB calls.

Turn: (11 BBs) 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif (3 Players)
SB checks, Hero bets, button folds, SB calls.

River: (13 BBs) A/images/graemlins/heart.gif (2 Players)
SB bets out...

Evan

01-15-2005, 05:38 AM

This looks like a clear call to me. I don't see a whole lot of room for debate.

MCS

01-15-2005, 05:46 AM

I'd call because I'm not good enough to be 99.6% sure I'm beat. I don't raise for obvious reasons.

I'm not sure I'm totally happy with the flop action. I don't know the SB, but in my games (i.e., the smaller ones usually discussed in this forum /images/graemlins/smile.gif ), 3-bets from the small blind are often AA, KK, or AK. Then you get checkraised on that flop after you capped preflop. Are you sure the 3-bet is right?

Shillx

01-15-2005, 05:53 AM

Curse and call. The other 2 options look much worse then calling here. Even if you win 10% you need to call.

Brad

Did SB has AK as well?

The Dude

01-15-2005, 05:57 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I'm not sure I'm totally happy with the flop action. ... Are you sure the 3-bet is right?

[/ QUOTE ]
3-betting is VASTLY superior to just calling down, especially in the 15-30 that plays much more aggro than the games you refer to.

MCS

01-15-2005, 06:00 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I'm not sure I'm totally happy with the flop action. ... Are you sure the 3-bet is right?

[/ QUOTE ]
3-betting is VASTLY superior to just calling down.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why is that? Because calling surrenders control of the hand to the SB, or what? I'm not disagreeing, I'm just trying to figure out why. What hands could the SB have that make this a good play? I guess plenty in an aggressive midlimit game.

The Dude

01-15-2005, 06:06 AM

Hi MCS,
I'm going to resist the temptation to discuss that here, because I don't want to distract the discussion from the river. (PM me if you really want to hear my thoughts.)

chesspain

01-15-2005, 09:15 AM

[ QUOTE ]
3-betting is VASTLY superior to just calling down, especially in the 15-30 that plays much more aggro than the games you refer to.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why is 3-betting the preferred play? Unless your opponent is a retard, it should be obvious to both of you that neither of you has a heart, unless he went WAY overboard w/QQ or AQo. Consequently, I think you're probably up against AA/KK/AK. And since I can't see your opponent folding any of these hands here (or will he?), then what's the point of the raise?

Evan

01-15-2005, 03:35 PM

[This is a general response to everyone with doubts about 3 betting the flop]

In aggressive games you are going to get check-raised on this flop by worse hands all the time. You will have the best hand more than enough to make 3 betting the right play. I've never played 15/30 but in 10/20 6m a preflop cap represents a much wider range of hands than AA/KK/AK. You'll see things like AQ/TT/even worse capping pretty regularly. You need to learn to exploit this when you do have a monster hand.

GuyOnTilt

01-15-2005, 03:48 PM

Hey guys,

Still haven't heard anybody put the SB on a range of hands.

GoT

GuyOnTilt

01-15-2005, 03:50 PM

I've never played 15/30 but in 10/20 6m a preflop cap represents a much wider range of hands than AA/KK/AK.

This is true in the 15 game when the pot is opened from MP or later. Of course, occassionally there are players who are just maniacal for the sake of being maniacal, but whatev. It should be noted that the SB did not cap in this hand though, only 3-bet.

GoT

Evan

01-15-2005, 04:24 PM

[ QUOTE ]
It should be noted that the SB did not cap in this hand though, only 3-bet.

[/ QUOTE ]
I said that more for the sake of explaining that the SB would check-raise with hands that could not beat AA/KK/AK since in his mind The Dude wouldn't need to have those hands.

Chris Daddy Cool

01-15-2005, 04:29 PM

i call this down

GuyOnTilt

01-15-2005, 04:34 PM

i call this down

Why?

GoT

slydeni

01-15-2005, 04:34 PM

Nice hand- curious as to result.
My conjecture:

Smells like about a coinflip that he has a heart. If he does it is prolly the A, Q, or J of hearts.

The guys does slow down a bit as the hand develops (according to your numbers). Here are the hands I put hime on:

AK with one heart or no heart is quite likely.
QQ with one or no hearts is also likely.
I also have an itch that he may have flopped a set of 10's.
JJ is also a possibility.

AA,KK is possible but less likey(obvioulsly).

Final answer::>> prolly AK, QQ, or set of 10's is what we are up against and good chance of one heart.

A CALL is a definite. If we lose...we lose.
I'd love to know the VPIP on this guy prior to these decisions...it would tip scales on putting him on a hand.

sly

BottlesOf

01-15-2005, 04:35 PM

Why?

Because there are 14 BBs in the pot and you're closing the action.

slydeni

01-15-2005, 04:39 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Why?

Because there are 14 BBs in the pot and you're closing the action.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think what GuyonTILt is trying to do is instigate intelligent discussion on these decisions rather than just "I call this." Its obvious to call cuz of the pot odds and such-- but a good analysis is food for us gluttonous poker thinkers. good luck

sly

BottlesOf

01-15-2005, 04:41 PM

Huh?

I'm trying to pull some of that out of GoT right now...I think.

GuyOnTilt

01-15-2005, 04:45 PM

Because there are 14 BBs in the pot and you're closing the action.

Since nobody seems to care to, I'll put SB on a range of hands:

A worse hand that wouldn't call a raise : ~10%
A worse hand that wouldn't fold to a raise : ~0%
A better hand that wouldn't call a raise :~0%
A better hand that wouldn't fold to a raise : ~50%
A chopping hand that wouldn't call a raise : ~30%
A chopping hand that wouldn't fold to a raise : ~10%

Given the above numbers, why should I call?

PS. I played this hand, not The Dude.

GoT

BottlesOf

01-15-2005, 04:48 PM

I think I'd need to see some specific hands/ranges from where those numbers came from, as that's a little much to process.

However, I think the second figure being 0% is off. As you admitted there are some nuts on party 15, and unless you have a read to the contrary, I think it's possible he would bet, call a rase to a look you up, and lose. Not likely, but >0, no?

GuyOnTilt

01-15-2005, 04:58 PM

Okay,

Hands that beat me:

My opponent does not have a full house unless it's AA, as the board paired on the turn and there was no action. AA still isn't all that likely, as opponents with his numbers will usually go one more bet on the flop and bet the turn. It is still a possibility though. KQo for the nut flush won't be 3-bet from the SB very often here by a guy with his numbers. So that's possible, but not likely. QQ or JJ with a heart is a possibility, but his c/r on the flop brings that possibility down. They're both still likely hands though. The flop was actually KJ8 though, which makes only helps me since he can no longer have JJ, and TT won't be c/r'ing that flop. Chance of AQo with a heart.

Hands that I beat:

A bluff with something like KQo without the heart or QQ with a heart. Outside shot of something like AQ without a heart.

Hands that I chop with:

Obviously AK, which I actually think is the most likely of any specific hand he will have here.

So yes, the two categories I put as ~0% are both above 0%, but I feel are below 5%, and I just wanted to give a general feel for my opponent's range rather than be super exact. To be honest, I think the numbers I gave give too much weight to him having a hand that beats me and not enough to a hand that chops with me. Those numbers err very much of the bleak side for me. More accurate numbers would be:

Hands I beat that fold to a raise : 10%
Hands I beat that call a raise : ~0%
Hands that beat me that fold to a raise : ~0%
Hands that beat me that don't fold to a raise : 30%
Hands that chop that fold to a raise : 50%
Hands that chop that call a raise : 10%

GoT

GuyOnTilt

01-15-2005, 05:00 PM

Just to be clear, the flop was K /images/graemlins/heart.gifJ /images/graemlins/heart.gif8 /images/graemlins/spade.gif

Turn: 8 /images/graemlins/heart.gif

River A /images/graemlins/heart.gif

GoT

chesspain

01-15-2005, 05:21 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
3-betting is VASTLY superior to just calling down, especially in the 15-30 that plays much more aggro than the games you refer to.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why is 3-betting the preferred play? Unless your opponent is a retard, it should be obvious to both of you that neither of you has a heart, unless he went WAY overboard w/QQ or AQo. Consequently, I think you're probably up against AA/KK/AK. And since I can't see your opponent folding any of these hands here (or will he?), then what's the point of the raise?

[/ QUOTE ]

DOH...I just realized that the initial quote referred to the flop play, whereas I was referring to the river, where I believe that Hero should only call, rather than raise.

arkady

01-15-2005, 05:31 PM

why even bother creating permutations of SB's holdings when you are holding top 2 pair in a 15 BB pot.

wuwei

01-15-2005, 05:35 PM

[ QUOTE ]
The guys does slow down a bit as the hand develops (according to your numbers). Here are the hands I put him on:

AK with one heart or no heart is quite likely.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree AK is a likely hand, but he can't have a heart - both those are on the board.

[ QUOTE ]
QQ with one or no hearts is also likely.
I also have an itch that he may have flopped a set of 10's.
JJ is also a possibility.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree on QQ and JJ. TT seems very unlikely based on the turn action.

QQ with a heart would be the most likely hand I'd put him on, with AK second. In this pot, I'm calling for 1 bet on the river closing the action.

Also, VP$IP was given in the first post. That's the 25/9 (25 VP$IP, 9PFR).

GuyOnTilt

01-15-2005, 05:37 PM

whereas I was referring to the river, where I believe that Hero should only call, rather than raise.

Why is this though? Let's say I make his range of hands, respective to my above orders: 5%, 0%, 0%, 60%, 25%, 10%. That's much worse than either of the above, and much worse than the actual situation, imo. Yet raising is still the preferred play. If I make it even worse and say 5%, 0%, 0%, 70%, 20%, 5%, I should still raise.

GoT

GuyOnTilt

01-15-2005, 05:40 PM

why even bother creating permutations of SB's holdings when you are holding top 2 pair in a 15 BB pot.

C'mon guys. Are you serious? If this is seriously the kind of crap I get when I take the effort to try and help out around here, I should just forget about it. Maybe the reason I do it is because the 2+2 dogma isn't always right. If nobody cares to discuss using actual facts and numbers and would rather just make statements like the above, I'll quit wasting my time and yours. Just let me know.

GoT

Schizo

01-15-2005, 05:41 PM

I heard Barry Tanenbaum talk about a very good player he knew that "INVARIABLY" bet out if a 4 suited card came and he was first to act. Apparently it worked pretty well for him.

*noob gets his face out of where it doesn't belong*

GuyOnTilt

01-15-2005, 05:54 PM

Okay, I decided to try and find the point where calling is better than raising. Here's an extremely unrealistic handset, tipped way in my opponents favor:

I'm ahead and he won't call a raise : 0%
I'm ahead and he will call a raise : 0%
I'm behind and he won't call a raise : 0%
I'm behind and he will call/reraise a raise : 80%
I'm chopping and he won't call a raise : 15%
I'm chopping and he will call a raise : 5%

EV of folding : +0.00 BB's
EV of calling : +0.70 BB's
EV of raising : +0.85 BB's

This is obviously weighted hugely in his advantage, beyond the point of reasonability for this hand. He never has a hand that beats mine, he has AA or KQo with the heart or QQ with the heart 80% of the time, calls my raise with AK 25% of the time he has it and bets it (which indicates he's ready to fold it), yet raising is still the preferred play.

GoT

wuwei

01-15-2005, 05:56 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I heard Barry Tanenbaum talk about a very good player he knew that "INVARIABLY" bet out if a 4 suited card came and he was first to act. Apparently it worked pretty well for him.

[/ QUOTE ]

Around here this is known as Clarkmeister's theorem.

The Dude

01-15-2005, 05:58 PM

[ QUOTE ]
why even bother creating permutations of SB's holdings when you are holding top 2 pair in a 15 BB pot.

[/ QUOTE ]
This is exactly the type of thinking that will prevent players from ever moving up into higher games.

BottlesOf

01-15-2005, 05:58 PM

I thought you were pushing for a fold. I like a raise.

wuwei

01-15-2005, 06:05 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Okay, I decided to try and find the point where calling is better than raising. Here's an extremely unrealistic handset, tipped way in my opponents favor:

I'm ahead and he won't call a raise : 0%
I'm ahead and he will call a raise : 0%
I'm behind and he won't call a raise : 0%
I'm behind and he will call/reraise a raise : 80%
I'm chopping and he won't call a raise : 15%
I'm chopping and he will call a raise : 5%

EV of folding : +0.00 BB's
EV of calling : +0.25 BB's
EV of raising : +0.45 BB's

This is obviously weighted hugely in his advantage, beyond the point of reasonability for this hand. Yet raising is still the preferred play.

GoT

[/ QUOTE ]

I thought your initial 50% chopping but folds to a reraise was a little high, but I'm convinced with those numbers. Raise it up.

slydeni

01-15-2005, 06:06 PM

well i tried above to comment on specific thoughts i had... i dunno if anyone saw them and/or had any thoughts on it or even saw my permutations. have a look - its about 5-7 posts prior to this one.

sly

Rudbaeck

01-15-2005, 06:19 PM

This is very good. Now applying this without me managing to misapply it will be harder, but atleast you got me convinced that raising is the right play in this hand.

Tosh

01-15-2005, 06:20 PM

Your opponent must be putting you on AK/AA/KK by the river, no? He's not an aggressive player according to those stats, and I'm not sure he'd expect you to bin AK so does he really bet and fold AK 15% of the time here? I feel he has a bluff with KQ or something or a very big hand.

GuyOnTilt

01-15-2005, 06:27 PM

I thought you were pushing for a fold. I like a raise.

I was just pointing out that everybody thinks this is a calling situation just because they have a good two pair in a large pot. People have gotten lazy with just making plays based on what "feels" right or rules of thumb they've been taught from these boards. These type of situations come up pretty frequently. Not this exact four flush one, but hands where the rule of thumb is bucked and a play that may "feel" wrong is actual preferred. Think of your winrate, or the winrates of the higher-tier SS'ers and MHS posters, playing relatively ABC 2+2 poker. It can get better than that, but skepticism is necessary.

GoT

The Dude

01-15-2005, 08:28 PM

[ QUOTE ]
If this is seriously the kind of crap I get when I take the effort to try and help out around here, I should just forget about it.

[/ QUOTE ]
Calm down, you're being very un-Dude. Nothing is fu**ed, they're a bunch of fu**ing amateurs.

BottlesOf

01-15-2005, 08:41 PM

I think this is a great point, I try not to fall into ruts, and posts like yours help me stay sharp.

bernie

01-15-2005, 08:46 PM

This is one of those hands that bothers me, where I'd probably puss and call instead of raising. /images/graemlins/frown.gif

I don't know what the stats mean, so Ill wing it a bit.

He doesn't likely have AA or KK. You'd have heard more from him on ealier streets with a likely cap on the flop with AA. If he'd go into a shell fearing Hero has KK, he could have TT. He has to be putting hero on something.

Could he be smoothcalling the turn with a FH?

I think a raise and fold to a 3 bet. Hero has represented a huge hand all the way through. I think any 3 bet has 2 pair beat.

Now if I can just do it when it comes up. /images/graemlins/mad.gif

Interesting hand.

b

The Dude

01-15-2005, 09:16 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I think any 3 bet has 2 pair beat.

[/ QUOTE ]
Agreed.

bicyclekick

01-15-2005, 09:19 PM

I don't like the 3 bet all that much on the flop. I 3 bet less and less when the board is so draw heavy. A lot of times it gives me more opportunities to pop the turn if a safe card comes. You have position, the turn isn't getting checked through either.

As for the river I play bad so I just call and cry about it.

The Dude

01-15-2005, 10:52 PM

[ QUOTE ]
As for the river... I just call and cry about it.

[/ QUOTE ]
Are you saying that after reading through this post, you still think calling is correct, or are you just saying that that's what you would have done at the time?

sthief09

01-15-2005, 11:40 PM

What are we putting SB on? he's basically a TAG but plays too many hands. his numbers look pretty solid other than limping a bit too much. When he 3-bets, he's got AA-TT, AK, or AQ. he obviously can't have the A/images/graemlins/heart.gif or the K/images/graemlins/heart.gif. from a strictly, "what beats you" perspective, AA, KK, TT have you beat, AK is chopping, and AQ or QQ are good if they have the Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif. starting witht he flop, I don't think his check-raise really narrows his hand too much. I'd say KK, QQ, JJ have to be discounted though, because of the presence of the A. since we now know the flop had the A on it, AQ is a possibility.

now on the turn, he checks and calls. that would be an odd place to slowplay since he knows he's going to get called if he check-raises, so I think AA and TT are pretty much out of the picture. So we're looking at AQ, AK, and a discounted KK, QQ, JJ.

the river is tough. I tend to think that the nut flush would bet, something weak would bet, but something in between, like AK or AQ would check and call, fearing a raise. people like to get to showdown cheaply when they have a mediocre hand, so you'll rarely see this as an AK value bet IMO. however, at the same time, it's possible that he just though "oooh, 2 pair, I bet" but I really think that 4th heart is a deterrent. as for AQ, I think it might be weak enough that he'd occasionally take a stab at it thinking he might be ahead anyway, but I don't think so. as for KK-JJ, he could have KK, betting out to avoid giving a free showdown. but going back to the flop, would he really check-raise 2 people with the A out? I've seen it but I don't think it's likely. same for QQ-JJ. so I think you're looking at AxQ/images/graemlins/heart.gif, but there seems like an awful lot of doubt given the size of the pot. there are only 3 combinations of AxQ/images/graemlins/heart.gif.

without looking at specific hands, we can go through a similar process. what's he thinking and representing? on the flop, he seems to be representing a hand that's not afraid of an A, which would most likely mean he has one. on the turn he's just checking and calling, so I assume he doesn't have anything big. the river could mean he has a hand, but he could also think you're tight and he can push you off a hand. however, given the presence of the A and K and all the action you put in already, that would be a tough spot to bluff.

in summary, I think in order to fold this, you really have to "trust" this guy not to pull anything and to have what he's representing, which is probably the nut flush.

EDIT: Tosh mentioned KQ. that's an interesting possibility, check-raising the flop to push you over a pocket pair, calling with a gut shot, then betting a K as a kind of bluff

sthief09

01-15-2005, 11:45 PM

GoT-

I feel like AK might tend to value bet less just so he won't have to pay off that raise. I see players get weak with mediocre holdings on the river all the time. They want to get to showdown as cheaply as possible to see if they're good. they don't want to have to deal with a raise.

arkady

01-16-2005, 02:59 AM

Actually both you and GoT need to relax, since based on one particular post of his, it seemed like he was arguing for a fold.

" i call this down

Why?"

Raising is def. interesting, in fact I would most often raise and fold to a 3 bet. But going against you guys is dangerous, so since no one suggested fold - I decided to keep my mouth shut. Perhaps if GoT stated his idea initially and not replied in the most ambigious way ever, this thread would be shorter and less insults would be thrown around from the elitists.

But you want to go ahead and call us all amateurs, go right ahead - i mean thats not at all snobby and actually quite helpful in a multitude of ways.

P.S. Yes if I had read EVERY post, I might have inferred his point faster. I sincerely apologize and will now go back to my .5/1 games....humbly.

brassnuts

01-16-2005, 03:04 AM

He was quoting a movie.

arkady

01-16-2005, 03:07 AM

I am an uncultured ignoramus, silly me for missing that one.

bicyclekick

01-16-2005, 03:41 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
As for the river... I just call and cry about it.

[/ QUOTE ]
Are you saying that after reading through this post, you still think calling is correct, or are you just saying that that's what you would have done at the time?

[/ QUOTE ]

You left out the most important part - the "I play bad"

I play bad and make these calls because I'm not good enough at telling the situations where a fold is in order from those where it's not, as I've shown in the past by posting hands where I tried a fold on the river and I got blasted for it. I think in these situations it's often less of a mistake to call when you should fold than fold when you should call, so what i'm saying is i'm not a good enough player to make a judgement if i'm good one in 15 or whatever it is but damn i have a decent hand so I'll show it down.

<--- sux at poker.

The Dude

01-16-2005, 05:28 AM

[ QUOTE ]

Calm down, you're being very un-Dude. Nothing is fu**ed, they're a bunch of fu**ing amateurs.

[/ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
But you want to go ahead and call us all amateurs, go right ahead - i mean thats not at all snobby and actually quite helpful in a multitude of ways.

[/ QUOTE ]
I should apologize to those that didn't get the reference. I was, in fact, quoting a movie. Not just any movie, but the one I got my screen name from (my avatar is a still shot of "The Dude").

When I read GoT's "and this is the crap I get" post, I thought it sounded like he was taking something personally, and that he was being a bit snooty. My post was meant to be a joke to lighten up his mood, but I guess it's pretty easy to misunderstand if you've never seen the movie. To those that misunderstood me, I apologize. (Oh yeah, and go rent The Big Lebowski.)

Chris Daddy Cool

01-16-2005, 05:49 AM

[ QUOTE ]
i call this down

Why?

GoT

[/ QUOTE ]

when i had originally read this hand, i knew folding was out of the question and i knew you guys were putting the raise or call test to see how far we want to push our EV. problem is i wasn't quite sure how close it was between each one so i went for the default line.

also, i played hand similiarly to this hand the other day on pp 15/30 and raised the river only to get pure 3-bet bluffed and i folded. maybe playing on 15 has made me soft...

Tosh

01-16-2005, 06:01 AM

[ QUOTE ]

I was just pointing out that everybody thinks this is a calling situation just because they have a good two pair in a large pot.

[/ QUOTE ]

Actually I think this is a calling situation because, having read the arguments, I am still not convinced. Throughout the whole thread I have seen no reasons given for why an apparently TAGish player bets this river with AK - and that is the only hand we want to raise against.

Tosh

01-16-2005, 01:40 PM

arkady

01-16-2005, 01:49 PM

seen it so long ago that the reference did indeed slip be my. all cool dude!

The Dude

01-16-2005, 04:46 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Throughout the whole thread I have seen no reasons given for why an apparently TAGish player bets this river with AK - and that is the only hand we want to raise against.

[/ QUOTE ]
Even though the A really can't help villian's hand against Hero, it sure looks to him like it does. And there are a lot of players in Party's 15-30 game that would be willing to bet it and fold to a raise - after all, AK can't possibly raise this river right?

When you look at the numbers GoT broke down, he doesn't have to make this fold very often at all to make the raise correct. Obviously Hero is not folding his hand, so the question is whether or not raising is better than folding.

The way his action went down looks a lot like AK to me - with other hands being possible as well. But, again, if you look at the numbers GoT broke down, he doesn't have to fold very often at all to make raising more profitable than calling.

Justin A

01-16-2005, 05:12 PM

Very interesting hand. I see how you put villain's most likely hand as AK, but I don't see why you don't give more likelyhood to AA. I don't think the lack of a flop cap makes AA very unlikely.

On another note, this would be a check if the SB had checked, right?

Justin A

GuyOnTilt

01-16-2005, 05:40 PM

so the question is whether or not raising is better than folding.

Um, no, it's really not. As for Tosh's question, as The Dude mentioned, it appeared the A /images/graemlins/heart.gif helped him. There really aren't that many hands he has here where that card helps. If it didn't and he's on a pure bluff, there's no difference between a call and a raise, so those instances have no bearing on my decision. The only hands an A /images/graemlins/heart.gif helps really are QQ with a heart, AQ with the Q of hearts, KQ with the Q of hearts, AA, and AK.

QQ is a possibility. Not a huge one given him flop c/r after my PF cap, flop bet, and most importantly, the caller between us on the flop. AQ with one heart is also possible, but again not a huge liklihood for the same reasons. A player with his numbers doesn't 3-bet KQo from the blinds. It's still a possibility 'cause maybe the 1-2k hands I hands I had on him were a cold run of starting hands or maybe he's slightly tilting. It didn't seem like it from his play thus far in the session though, so I'm not putting a whole lot of weight into KQo. So those three are slight possibilities, and AA and AK make up the rest of the time he's not on a pure bluff. Yes, maybe once in a blue moon he'll have a set that he check-called with on the turn, but basically no. BTW, I don't think he's on a bluff here very often at all, just 'cause there's not a whole lot of hands that he can have after the turn that allow for him to just have a bluff.

So back to AA and AK. If both those hands will always play the same up to this point, he's four times as likely to have AK, ala Bayesian principles. So keeping that in mind, if we give him AA or one of the other hands that beats me that isn't folding 80% of the time, AK that is folding to a raise 15% of the time, and AK that isn't folding 5% of the time, which I think it a gross overstatement of his hand range, I should still raise. It's a .15 BB difference. The range of hands that I believe is more realistic given my opponent puts the difference at 1.15 BB's, which makes the decision clear cut for me.

GoT

me454555

01-16-2005, 06:21 PM

I wish I could think like this....Maybe one day w/a whole lot more practice. Nice job GoT

cnfuzzd

01-16-2005, 06:43 PM

[ QUOTE ]
so the question is whether or not raising is better than folding.

Um, no, it's really not.

[/ QUOTE ]

I would never want to speak for The Dude, but im 98% sure this is a typo, especially given how the rest of the post is deliberating between calling and raising. Also, arent you two roommates? Couldnt you just like, reach over and smack him or something....

Dude?

peace

john nickle

The Dude

01-16-2005, 07:15 PM

[ QUOTE ]
so the question is whether or not raising is better than folding.
im 98% sure this is a typo

[/ QUOTE ]
It was.

Tosh

01-16-2005, 07:22 PM

[ QUOTE ]
so the question is whether or not raising is better than folding.

Um, no, it's really not. As for Tosh's question, as The Dude mentioned, it appeared the A /images/graemlins/heart.gif helped him. There really aren't that many hands he has here where that card helps. If it didn't and he's on a pure bluff, there's no difference between a call and a raise, so those instances have no bearing on my decision. The only hands an A /images/graemlins/heart.gif helps really are QQ with a heart, AQ with the Q of hearts, KQ with the Q of hearts, AA, and AK.

QQ is a possibility. Not a huge one given him flop c/r after my PF cap, flop bet, and most importantly, the caller between us on the flop. AQ with one heart is also possible, but again not a huge liklihood for the same reasons. A player with his numbers doesn't 3-bet KQo from the blinds. It's still a possibility 'cause maybe the 1-2k hands I hands I had on him were a cold run of starting hands or maybe he's slightly tilting. It didn't seem like it from his play thus far in the session though, so I'm not putting a whole lot of weight into KQo. So those three are slight possibilities, and AA and AK make up the rest of the time he's not on a pure bluff. Yes, maybe once in a blue moon he'll have a set that he check-called with on the turn, but basically no. BTW, I don't think he's on a bluff here very often at all, just 'cause there's not a whole lot of hands that he can have after the turn that allow for him to just have a bluff.

So back to AA and AK. If both those hands will always play the same up to this point, he's four times as likely to have AK, ala Bayesian principles. So keeping that in mind, if we give him AA or one of the other hands that beats me that isn't folding 80% of the time, AK that is folding to a raise 15% of the time, and AK that isn't folding 5% of the time, which I think it a gross overstatement of his hand range, I should still raise. It's a .15 BB difference. The range of hands that I believe is more realistic given my opponent puts the difference at 1.15 BB's, which makes the decision clear cut for me.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't doubt your numbers or your logic as to what he could have pre river, just why he bets AK if he's a predictable player (is that your general feeling?).

He needs a reason to bet AK, and if has bothered to put you on a range of hands by now it has to be pretty narrow, I don't think he puts you on anything worse than AK anyway. Don't players like this just check call? Or at least never fold, maybe I'm giving him too little credit, or maybe even too much I'm just finding it hard to actually believe 15% of the time his bet here is AK that he is prepared to fold.