Home game question.

[phixxx]

Had a recent hand in which I was playing a friendly home game. My buddy made what I thought at the time was a HORRIBLE call. We were playing 3 handed, and I started with Qc3c and he called my opening raise on the button from the BB with Ac Ks. The flop came down 2c 4s 5c. I check-raised him all in (stack sizes here are irrelavant) and he instacalled with his AKo (very agressive player). It turns out that his AK holds up after two blanks hit. When I first looked at the hand, I saw myself as a huge favorite, with a straight/flush draw and his ace being dead due to it completing my straight. However, when I looked it up on an odds simulator, I am only a slight favorite. How can this be? If someone can go over the numbers or explain how I am only a slight favorite with this holding it would be appreciated.

[pzhon]

First, even if there were no redraws, your 17 outs twice would only hit 1-(28/45)(27/44) = 61.8% of the time. I wouldn't call that a huge favorite.

Second, that your opponent has the ace of clubs makes a significant difference, leaving you a 56.8:43.2 favorite rather than 59.5:40.5 if your opponent had AKo with no club. That might not look like a lot, but it takes 30% off your advantage.

The redraws are significant. Although you have 17 outs, the 8 flush outs give your opponent 6-7 outs to a higher flush. The 6 straight outs give your opponent 3 outs (the 3s) to tie. If a queen comes, your opponent has 5 outs to win with a king or 3.

[gaming_mouse]

pzhon,

nice analysis. i would also add, for clarity, that the main source of the AK's equity is high card value: when the OP does not improve, he loses.

on a different note, why are you raising Q3s? Unless your oppo's are incredibly weak (they are likely to fold right off) or incredibly strong (in which case it has deceptive value), I think it's a pretty poor play.

gm

[phixxx]

It was three handed, I thought I mentioned that. I guess not. My play in the hand wasn't really important so I thought I'd leave that out.