Win Rate if I Double Up on the First Hand

[TomCollins]

Suppose my win breakdown is the following-

12% 12% 12%. ROI = 10%.

I also can play the big stack fairly well.
Suppose I knock out an opponent on the first hand, and double my stack. So I have 2x as many chips as everyone else, and one fewer player at the table.

My win % for each place is now x, y, z%

What is x,y,z?

There are no equations to exactly figure this out, but roughly, what would you say it is?

[Tosh]

At a guess I'd say 20% for each.

[Big Limpin']

Undoubtedly you will increase 1sts. For doubling early, i'd expect it to more than double winrate. IMO, competant players should take it all down at least 1 time in 4.

2nd and 3rd places increase, on basis of having more chips for the bubble...you can survive an all-in loss. Also, add the lost heads up matches...

My best guess would be X-Y-Z = 30-20-15 %pct
Yup, 65% ITM...thats 2 out of 3 times you money.

Close? More/Less?

Does anyone have stats on this over the long haul? (%ITM when doubled up in level 1)

[Tosh]

You're saying that he more than doubles his chance of coming first by doubling his chips. I would say you are wrong here.

[Jman28]

He did state that he plays a big stack well. If the game unfolds in certain ways, having a big stack can be rediculously advantageous. Limpin's numbers seem a little high, but I think that if you can play the big stack well, doubling up early will more than double your % of 1sts.

-Jman28

[TomCollins]

Remember, I still only have twice as many chips, which is below average 4 handed.

I think its a bit more balanced between 1-2-3.

[Jman28]

True, but having twice as many chips in level 1 makes it more probable that you'll have the chip lead 4 handed than if you didn't double up.

[byronkincaid]

I'm sure this doesn't apply to you but varients of this question seem to come up quite often. I wonder how many of them are thinking about chip dumping/collusion.

As far as I have read here there isn't any profit in getting someone to dump their chips to you first hand, is that right? Perhaps someone cleverer than me could work out a definative answer.

[MrMon]

Not that I have any info on how you play, but as a general observation I have found that most players who double up in the first few hands of $5, $10 or $20 SnGs at Paradise don't finish in the money. Counterintuitive, yes, but I think there's an obvious reason - anyone who goes all-in in the first round generally plays way too loose. They don't play the big stack well and wind up burning it off. A big stack means you have a big stack, it doesn't make you bulletproof.

When I make notes on people, going all-in early is a note I make, especially if they do it more than once. You might be better than that, but I find it an almost universal sign of a bad player.

If someone wants to make a study of their databases, I think this is the query to make - What is the ITM% for a player that has 2x the starting chips with less that 10 hands played. Maybe my observation is wrong, but I've noticed the trend for awhile and sure would be curious what the real answer is.

[Big Limpin']

[ QUOTE ]
You're saying that he more than doubles his chance of coming first by doubling his chips. I would say you are wrong here.

[/ QUOTE ]

Maybe. But i felt pretty confident in saying MORE than double winrate when i first posted. And i still do.

Its all based on bringing more chips than usual into the bubble. Sure, thats 30,40,50 hands from now. But if you keep playing your normal tight-passive rock style until then, as opposed to becoming table policeman, you should probably bring twice your average stack to the bubble. Give or take. But likely close.

Now, where the bonus comes is then you have a big(ish) stack for high blinds. People try fewer steals against you, you're raises are respected 'cause you outstack the callers. You can get all-in and lose without busting...etc. Thats off-topic, you all know big stack has advantage late.

So, I'm saying that a GOOD bubble player / bigstack player, should have such an advantage, that his 1st place finishes should double, and more.

Just my gut-feeling though, i have no data on this. I admit i could be wrong.