Preflop Question: Being the Second to Call Three Cold

[fsuplayer]

I am starting to play the party 15 games more now, and was unsure of this situation, as it rarely if ever came up in the 6 max games.:


Party Poker 15/30 Hold'em (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 8/images/graemlins/club.gif.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 3-bets</font>, MP2 calls, Hero ???


first raiser was like 35/13, second raiser was slightly tighter, like 24/10. the MP calling really threw me off, as i figure that I can play more hands bc of him, but which ones?


with one 50vpip blind, if you dont call here, what range of hands do you call or cap with here?

thanks guys,


fsuplayer

[PinkyRingo]

I would cap with AA, KK, QQ, AKs, and fold everything else. And then throw up when an 8 flops.

I think calling would be a small mistake, but with MP2 in there already, it wouldn't be a huge one. If BB comes along you'd be getting 4:1. And if the vpip50 is the SB, it could be even better.

Hopefully someone who actually knows what they're talking about will correct me if I'm wrong.

[Levi King]

Without a read on your opponents, this is an easy fold.

[fsuplayer]

bump

[stoxtrader]

you need to flop a set to win here, (im guessing) 95% of the time?

for simplicity sake can we say the times you lose with a set are canceled out by the times you win without hitting one?

so paying 3SB to try and hit a 7.5:1 shot means you need to make 22.5SB on average when you hit to make the call correct.

there is still a lot of preflop action, but there is going to be at least 10.5SB in this pot, oftentimes more, which means you need to make 6BB post-flop when you hit, I think easy to do.

problem with my logic here possibly is that it supports calling with any pair, and i think many would disagree with that...

anyone disagree?

[La Brujita]

I have been calling with many pairs in this situation if I expect there is a likelihood one or more might jump in.

I am trying to figure out if it is a leak in my game but I am frankly not sure.


[ QUOTE ]
for simplicity sake can we say the times you lose with a set are canceled out by the times you win without hitting one?

[/ QUOTE ]

I think the above statement might not be true enough to assume even for simplicity. I think you will lose with a set a decent bit more often than you will win unimproved. Would you/others disagree?

[fsuplayer]

problem with my logic here possibly is that it supports calling with any pair, and i think many would disagree with that...

this is exactly the point I was curious about after playing this hand.

any other comments about this guys?

[DeeJ]

I think you are definitely "no set no bet". The problem is that you can spew many many chips with set over set or under-boats with the low pairs, though you will usually win when you flop a set it can all go horribly wrong when the flop comes AK2 turn K river Q and you have zilch against an JT, an AK and a QQ /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[Kaz The Original]

I'm only calling in this situation if the first or second player is a maniac.

[amulet]

clear fold. you are 7.5 to 1 against flopping a set, you need 5 to 1 to call preflop (because of implied odds can make up for the difference). not only are you NOT getting the 5 to 1 to hit your set, you have 2 earlier players who have shown power (even if one is too loose), and many to act behind you. if one 4 bets it, your odds ae even worse. this is a clear fold. calling has a negitive expectation.

[DrGutshot]

the problem i see here is when the flop comes 259r, it's a bet + call to you. turn is a 3, bet+call to you. river is a J bet + fold to you.

I know this exact betting sequence will very rarely happen, but don't you think there are many boards that could be tough to get away from, especially if your opponents are fairly aggressive postflop?

-DrG

[roy_miami]

[ QUOTE ]
the problem i see here is when the flop comes 259r, it's a bet + call to you. turn is a 3, bet+call to you. river is a J bet + fold to you.

I know this exact betting sequence will very rarely happen, but don't you think there are many boards that could be tough to get away from, especially if your opponents are fairly aggressive postflop?

-DrG

[/ QUOTE ]

This is exactly what my problem has been when I call in these situations, especially with hands like 99 or TT. Its too hard to fold 99 on a flop of 268. I need to be getting a really sweet price to call multiple bets with medium to low PP's to overcome my inability to fold when I miss.

[BottlesOf]

YES!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[BarronVangorToth]

[ QUOTE ]
I would cap with AA, KK, QQ, AKs, and fold everything else.

[/ QUOTE ]

Agreed. DEPENDING on the players, and only in VERY slim circumstances, I might get in there with with another notch down of hands. But it wouldn't drop down to 8's. Fold and don't look at the flop.

Barron Vangor Toth
www.BarronVangorToth.com (http://www.BarronVangorToth.com)

[DougL]

At some point in one of these games, you look around the table in wonder at the LAG maniacs. If you are playing a medium pocket pair for 3 cold, aren't you in danger of being one? You can look at this from pot odds POV and ignore a likely cap from someone.

At this point live I might say, "It will be really cool to see their faces if I hit this one." I'd need this in addition to implied odds to call. As it is, I think there are 3 or 4 hands that I play here, and I'm capping at least two of them. If AKo vs. AJs vs. 55 bluffs me off of my 88, I'll have to live with it. I think you're 2-3 callers short here, and I might pass even then.

[jogger08152]

Assume the following:

+) There are no callers behind you and UTG+1 plays (and caps half the time).
+) You never win unimproved.
+) You always win if you flop a set.

Given these conditions, you'll need the remaining players to put in a hair under 8 big bets after the flop to break even. Even this is a little optimistic, since sometimes you will lose when you set up. (I also think that, even with position, it will tend to be more expensive when you play on without improving and lose, than it will be profitable when you play on without improving and win.) I'd generally fold here.

What to play? Depends on the table, but I'd like AA, KK, QQ, AKs and AK, and maybe JJ &amp; TT. I'd muck anything else.

[phifediggy]

[ QUOTE ]
This is exactly what my problem has been when I call in these situations, especially with hands like 99 or TT. Its too hard to fold 99 on a flop of 268. I need to be getting a really sweet price to call multiple bets with medium to low PP's to overcome my inability to fold when I miss.

[/ QUOTE ]

this is why i would prefer to have suited connectors in a large multiway pot rather than a mid pair. if the flop comes unders you'll have trouble letting go of a mid pair, but if you have suited connectors and you don't hit a huge OESFD you can let it go with ease and save money.

[TStoneMBD]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
This is exactly what my problem has been when I call in these situations, especially with hands like 99 or TT. Its too hard to fold 99 on a flop of 268. I need to be getting a really sweet price to call multiple bets with medium to low PP's to overcome my inability to fold when I miss.

[/ QUOTE ]

this is why i would prefer to have suited connectors in a large multiway pot rather than a mid pair. if the flop comes unders you'll have trouble letting go of a mid pair, but if you have suited connectors and you don't hit a huge OESFD you can let it go with ease and save money.

[/ QUOTE ]


this is just bad poker.

[Kenrick]

Unless my psychic abilites tell me an 8 is going to flop, I don't know why I'd call 3 bets cold with 88. Most people won't even call JJ here.