Colts @ Pats (what makes this game a bad bet?)

[slogger]

Hey guys, this is my first post in the SB forum. Huge sports fan, facinated with sports betting, but have never gotten into because I think I would enjoy it too much and go overboard with it.

Anyway, despite rarely putting money on a game outside of stupid Super Bowl bets with friends and the NCAA tourney, I enjoy reading about and discussing point spreads, moneylines, etc. I remain a complete novice though.

For what it's worth, if I had to bet every game this week, I take the favorites in every single one (not sure about the value of playing the money line or laying the points on each game).

It seems to me that everyone's facination with the Colts is even further reason to think that the Pats are a good bet this week. However, I've a number of you say things like "the smart money will stay away from this game."

I have two questions:
1. What characteristics make a game one that the "smart money" would avoid?
2. Which of these apply to the Colts-Pats game?

Thanks for the input!

[ttleistdci]

"Smart money" is probably staying away from this game because it really could go either way...there is no edge here.

Both teams looked really good all year, and they both have some things working against them (Colts - streak vs. Pats at home, weather, etc.) (Pats - injury-depleted defense).

I think others here would agree with me that this game might be one of the best this year, and as a Pats' fan, I would much rather sit back and enjoy the game rather than worry about Troy Brown costing me a Pats' cover because he was playing too loose on defense.

[sublime]

"Smart money" is probably staying away from this game because it really could go either way...there is no edge here.

i disagree. i bet the pats yesterday at -1 (not widely available) i think the line will continue to drop, then the "smart" money will bet the patriots back up to -2/-2.5.

[Big Al]

The smart money is betting one of the other games this weekend. This is not a spot where you one team, from a betting standpoint, is a way better play than the other. Anyone who thinks it is, is an idiot.--Big Al--

[tech]

[ QUOTE ]
1. What characteristics make a game one that the "smart money" would avoid?

[/ QUOTE ]

Smart money avoids games where there is no edge. If a line is correct (also called solid), both sides of the bet are -EV because neither side wins more than the 53% or so necessary to overcome the vig. The only time a bet becomes worthwhile is when the line is wrong, usually by a couple of points or more. This usually happens in one of the following ways (paraphrased from Sklansky's book):

(1) The linesmakers were simply wrong and set a bad line. This doesn't happen often in NFL games. It is much more common in basketball, baseball, and hockey.

(2) The linesmakers were right but shaded the line against the side they knew the public would take. This happens often in the NFL.

(3) The linesmakers were right but public betting moved the line so much that the opposite side is now +EV.

[ QUOTE ]
2. Which of these apply to the Colts-Pats game?

[/ QUOTE ]

This is the tricky part. In my opinion, Pats -3 was the right line. The public has moved it to Pats -1. Pats -1 is probably EV-neutral or slightly +EV. Pats at pk or better is certainly +EV. Basically that is why I am staying away from the game for now.

[sublime]

The smart money is betting one of the other games this weekend. This is not a spot where you one team, from a betting standpoint, is a way better play than the other. Anyone who thinks it is, is an idiot.--Big Al--

is that so?

thanks for your insight al /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[Parnish]

The game looks like a 50-50 proposition, so if you're looking for value and you can get a moneyline with either team getting a better then +100 price, then I'd go with that.
I personally think the colts have a slight edge going into this game...they seem like the hungrier team.

I think New England is a much better play than Indianapolis.

Love and kisses,

The Idiot.

[pshreck]

Is there any site that would let me bet on Vinateri kicking the winning field goal?

Just feels like this is gonna happen.

[slogger]

This is exactly what I was looking for.

Thanks to everyone else who chimed in as well.

[kyro]

[ QUOTE ]
I personally think the colts have a slight edge going into this game...they seem like the hungrier team.

[/ QUOTE ]

hungrier team? i'm not sure what evidence you have to back this, but in my most humble and uneducated opinion, this is the dumbest comment i've read in a week. and i've been in the OOT forum as well. /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[Waterproof]

There is smart money on this game, and I believe it's on the Pats.

Anyway, I'm laying off. I've been trying all day to pull the trigger and just can't. To me, that's what makes this a bad bet.

I could give you a lot of reasons to play the Pats, just I'm not willing to myself.

By the way, people cap games differently. Some see edges where others don't. This could be some guys play of the year... GL.

[judgesmails]

This is surely no revelation (my being an idiot) to those who have followed my recent picks.

That being said, I really like Indy in this game. The passing game matchups heavily favor the Colts. Additionally, the Pats missing Seymour and Law are significant losses. I bet Indy +1 +108.

Does my wager have overwhelming +EV? Probably not, but it is enough +EV for me.