8-handed online 20/40: shaky protection

[astroglide]

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with A/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, MP1 calls, Hero calls, MP3 calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB 3-bets</font>, BB calls, MP1 calls, Hero calls, MP3 folds, <font color="#CC3333">Button caps</font>, SB calls, BB calls, MP1 calls, Hero calls.

overlimp is simple for me here, no line on the limper and the table doesn't seem crazy. bb calling the 3bet is enough for me to make a "colorful" call here. i'm not necessarily expecting a cap because it was a button raise.

Flop: (21 SB) 6/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 4/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 7/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, MP1 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, Button calls, <font color="#CC3333">SB raises</font>, BB folds, MP1 folds, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, Button folds, <font color="#CC3333">SB caps</font>, Hero calls.

backdoor and gutshot. i'm expecting to call something back to me, but ideally i'd like to get a fold out of somebody with an ace to turn my 4-outer with a backdoor flush into a 6-outer with a backdoor flush. i'm sure queens or kings are out there.

[mmcd]

What's MP1's story? I'll usually only limp along w/ a hand like A8s if the open limp came from EP or if there is more than limper in front of me. When faced with an open limp from MP or later, I'll almost always raise in an attempt to isolate, and/or get the button.

edit: I just reread your post and saw that you had no read on the open limper, but generally speaking, I think the types of players who open limp in MP are the types you won't mind isolating w/ A8s.

Postflop looks fine to me. The pots gigantic and getting hands like AQ/AJ to fold is well worth an extra sb or 2 IMO.

[skp]

Well, all that italicized stuff leaves us nothing more to talk about...well, almost nothing as mmcd may have a good point about the preflop raise but I too slightly prefer the overlimp but it depends...

Anyway, well played.

[lil feller]

The pre-flop play seems like a coin toss to me. Sometimes I'll raise this sort of player with this sort of hand, sometimes I'll overlimp, depends on some other variables. I really like your flop play, as you surely got A-Big in the button to fold. I might be concerned that the SB has AA, given the flop cap and the action pre-flop, but KK or QQ isn't certainly more likely. I'm assuming you go into "call unless I hit mode" on the turn, and muck the river?

[astroglide]

yes, call unless i hit. if i turned an ace, i'd raise the river and fold to a threebet. if i rivered an ace, i'd raise and fold to a threebet.

[disjunction]

I'm going to try to take a stab at the flop with some math, which I'm sure will be ignored:

There are ~25 small bets in the pot, you're definitely calling, and raising costs you an extra 1.5 (assuming a 50% chance of a cap), so you need around 16:1 odds. How often is the Button on a better ace? Assuming 50%, you're buying 2 outs half the time, equivalently 1 out. Assuming you'll stay to the river, you have a 1/25 chance of hitting your out. On that math I'd say calling is best, but raising isn't terrible considering we're only talking of a couple %, and lots of other good stuff (free cards, etc) can happen.

But if you think you could find a way where SB could be checkraising top pair only (I can't, unless he calls preflop with connectors), your 8 might be good, and then I'd say raise.

These seem to be the issues, to me.

[skp]

Let's say that you hit an Ace on the turn and you are up against KK. Curious as to why you would want to wait until the river to raise? The pot is huge. That dude with the Kk will not fold the turn if you raise. He will call and pay off on the river to boot. But if you just call the turn, he may not bet the river given teh Ace on board. Also, a scare card (like a 3,5 or 8) might show up giving him another reason not to bet.

I suppose the one ad of waiting to raise the river is that he is less likely to 3 bet you (depending on the river card) if he has AA or AK. But overall, I like the turn raise in this spot.

[astroglide]

if i raise the turn and he threebets, i would have to call and it would be much more inducing to make a "this eats balls but the pot is massive" river call. i can muster up some folds that would make some heads around here spin but even i only have so much of a tolerance for pot sizes. so basically a turn raise can cost me an extra 2 bets unimproved. a river threebet means BUSINESS. the scare card factor is valid, but i don't think the ace would slow this guy down from betting the river with his intensity and my flop play. there's still a decent possibility that i would raise a turned ace in the actual moment though.

[Paluka]

I think the preflop limp is absolute fine. Calling 2 bets back to me preflop is always the spot where I'm really not sure what to do. I usuall lean towards calling because these pots are usually enormous and seeing the flop is a good thing. I like when you 3 bet the flop in hopes to knock out the ace behind you, seems like a good play that could knock out a guy and get yo a free cards on the turn. What I'm not sure about is your initial flop bet.

[skp]

I think the overriding factor is the likelihood that this guy will bet his KK on the river even with the Ace out there. If, as you say, this guy is likely to bet, then I like your line but against most guys, I like the turn raise line better.

[disjunction]

How often do you think there's an ace behind him?

[theBruiser500]

Why is no one responding to disjunction's post with the math? MMCD says, "The pots gigantic and getting hands like AQ/AJ to fold is well worth an extra sb or 2 IMO. " but what does your opinion have to do with this, this just seems like a math problem to me.

Disjunction you said raising costs an extra 1.5 bets but it seems like 1.75 is more accurate. But anyway using your number 16:1 odds, or your play needs to work 1/17 times for it to be profitable, and you are adding a 1/25 chance of hitting your out, that seems definitly bad to me. How by the way would we convert this 1/17 vs. 1/25 thing to actual $$ or BB lost because of this raise? So, how do you guys refute disjunctions point?

[mmcd]

You have just shy of 25% pot equity not counting Aces as outs. Any bet you put in the pot will only cost you 75% (1.13sb assuming you figuring on putting 1.5sb in the pot, and 1.31sb assuming you figure on putting in 1.75)

The button has a bigger ace than you here far more than 50% of the time given the preflop and flop action. By cleaning up the the two remaining aces as outs, you are adding ~6% to your pot equity, or around 1.5sb to your expectation. Once you factor in implied and reverse implied odds here, a raise is clearly better than a call as you will likely multiple bets those times you hit your flush and (had you not knocked the button out, you would have had to put at least 1bb in on the river if an A hit. Also getting the pot heads up prevents it from getting raised again on later streets unless you want it raised. I said "IMO" because I was basing my assertion on my intuition as to how the math would work out.

[disjunction]

[ QUOTE ]
You have just shy of 25% pot equity not counting Aces as outs. Any bet you put in the pot will only cost you 75% (1.13sb assuming you figuring on putting 1.5sb in the pot, and 1.31sb assuming you figure on putting in 1.75)

[/ QUOTE ]

-----
mmcd,

Thanks for the reply. I don't think poker is all math, but I do think discussing it every once in awhile exposes the assumptions we are making in a way. And there's the old adage that says if you estimate enough paramaters, your errors will roughly offset. My comments about yours:

(1) How do you get 25% ? 4 outs gives you only 17% pot equity, and that assumes nobody's cards interfere with your 1-card straight draw. So if you figure to put 1.5 sb in, it's really 1.25 (you're right, I missed this, that's why I posted). If you figure on putting 1.75 sb in, it's 1.45 sb. So your additional investment will need to bring you back 1.25-1.45 sb in order to be worth it.

(2) Here's where you're probably right and my numbers are off. Your figure of buying 1.5 sb means he's about 70% likely to have an ace AND fold it, my figure of 50% means you only buy 1.12 sb. The flop action sure looks like an ace, but are we 90% sure, and then will he fold it 80% of the time (.90*.80= 72%) ?

(3a) I'm going to wave a wand and say implied odds won't be much better than the 25sb pot odds, because of future betting to chase your draw.

(3b) I probably agree that the 3-bet will somehow help you in future streets, although the button won't be around to pay you off when you hit your draw.

So the conclusion of this post is it costs 1.1-1.5 sb to make a little more than 1.25-1.45 sb. If it weren't close, it probably wouldn't have been posted.

[mmcd]

(1) How do you get 25% ? 4 outs gives you only 17% pot equity,

You have the backdoor flush draw, running 8s, and running A 8 as outs as well.

[weevil]

I like the play. You clear out any high overcards sticking around for their one pair and probably one someone with an overpair or strong draw will stick around. Your three betting the SB will push the button off overcards, and if he calls you know you're probably looking at an overpair from him and probably one from the SB too, as these were the preflop aggressors. So if you isolate the SB and he caps on you, you can figure you're going to pay six SBs to see the river to win 31 SBs assuming he bets into you on the turn and river and you can get him to call a river raise. That's nearly 5:1 on a 2.2:1 shot (I'm giving you four outs for the inside straight, 1 1/2 for the flush, and 2 1/2 for your ace = 8). Perfect play. If the button caps, you've got trouble. Now you can be pretty sure both the SB and BB are sitting on overpairs, and there could be a raising war on the turn anyways. You definitely call and look at the turn, but what about the river? Let's assume they make it three bets on the turn with you calling. You've now put 10 SBs in to win at least 24 SBs, which is 2.4:1 on a 2.2:1, so I think you can withstand some raising on the turn as well. You pretty much can't lose with this hand?

[astroglide]

the point is only worth refuting, if one wanted to (i don't) as a post-analysis. it's certainly valuable to get the mathies out of the woodwork on situations like this but at the table there is no way i'm calculating anything remotely close to that, i'm just going by what seems appropriate. i like hands like this though because it forces us to re-evaluate our definitions of proper action.

[GuyOnTilt]

Hey Astro,

Nice hand.

Preflop, I most likely play exactly the same. It would be nice to know the numbers of the limpers and the numbers of the players on your left, but it sounds like you're not much of a numbers guy so you probably don't have them to give. Against the mix of most tables I'm at though, the limp is not just fine, it's correct. I call the two back to me unless MP3's numbers are such that he's likely to fold, but the vast majority of players aren't, so without numbers I'm calling.

On the flop, you must bet. You know this, but I don't think most here do. You're going for a Button raise here, which didn't happen, but fortunately things were flip-flopped in terms of who has what and the SB gave you an opportunity to accomplish your goal, just not the way you were expecting. This is actually better, since you now have position on the overpair and hitting your ace becomes easier to extract value. So you do the right thing and 3-bet, Button folds as planned, and you're capped. Which is fine. A free card would've been nice, but not expected.

On the turn, you should call any turn card but your gutshot. This includes spiking an ace. Raising an ace would be bad, as I think you already know.

On the river, you're not calling. There is exactly zero hands that you want to call with here. You're raising an Ace, either turned or rivered, and you're folding to a 3-bet. You're raising backdoor trip 8's. You're raising backdoor flushes. You're raising rivered gutshots. Never calling. Calling is bad on this street. You're folding turned or rivered 8's.

This was a good hand to post. You played it well, and I think you probably know how to play it well on the turn and river. Very nicely done.

Edit: Concerning the PF action, I just saw your title said this one was dealt 8-handed. In the PF action, you said there were 2 folders then a limper to you. In that case, you were 2 off the Button and I think you should raise against most mixes. The rest of the action indicates that you were 3 off the Button though, in which case I'd limp against most mixes.

GoT

[GuyOnTilt]

Hey Bruiser,

I'm a numbers guy and incorporate a lot of math and weighted ev calcs and such into my game. I've done quite a few calcs for these exact situations, enough to know by looking at this one that 3-betting the flop is the right play here. I don't feel like doing this exact situation right here, right now, but if you still have your doubts I'd encourage you to crunch some numbers yourself. Once you do enough of these for specific situations against a bunch of different specific ranges of hands in specific pot sizes, you get a feel of what is right when against whom just by remembering the pattern of those calcs and the turning points for different plays. This one's a 3-bet.

GoT

[GuyOnTilt]

if i turned an ace, i'd raise the river and fold to a threebet. if i rivered an ace, i'd raise and fold to a threebet.

Sweet.

GoT

[DeeJ]

[ QUOTE ]
You pretty much can't lose with this hand?

[/ QUOTE ]

I think this overstates the strength of A8 as overcards with two cards to come /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[TStoneMBD]

this thread just goes to show how much i need to learn. im a little too tired to do all the math right now, but when im in the mood ill certainly take my stab at it. continue to post these types of hands in the future please, cause after reading guyontilts replies, its clear i have trouble with these scenarios.

[Clarkmeister]

Perfect.

[amulet]

it is a fold preflop, both for one bet in that position, and once it comes back to you raised and reraised. you are less then 6% to make a flush by the river and out of position. A8s is trash, not a hand to play early ever (unless the game is super loose and super passive). once it comes back to you, the odds on you winning are not even close to the the extra bets you would need to put in, just dump it and feel like your mistake was cheap. the flop bet is a big mistake. yes you have a gut shot and a backdoor, so you want the correct odds. others have shown power and will bet it, so you need to let them and see your odds, but letting someone reraise you cuts down your odds, and your reraise compunds the mistake. it is simple math post flop, and your numbers are way off. a gutshot is 11 to 1, 8 to 1 with implied odds, the back door makes it slightly better but not much. you need to see what it costs and if the odds are correct call, but make it cheap.

[Clarkmeister]

"it is a fold preflop"

We know what you think.

[TimM]

The results were just here, and now gone.

I think this is about to get interesting...

[amulet]

are you that unhappy that you need to make it personal?

would you play A8s in 2nd position? would you reraise out of position when an opponent probably had a big pair, and you are a long shot to make your hand? are you in the habit of putting in $ when your the dog? put the personal [censored] aside and address the question.

[Clarkmeister]

Well, I could have put that comment after any of your responses, they are all the same. It just happened to be this thread, but it could well have been the 99 in the BB thread. We know you want to fold. Got it.

Nothing personal at all, just an observation that I'm sure many here have made.

[amulet]

i am not sure who the "we" you origional mention are?

i think your responses tend to be angry to my posts. why? someone who shares a passion, deserves respect and kindness. even if you disagree. and the purpose of this form is to discuss poker. therefore, if you disagree instead of making some rude comment, present the reasons you think i am incorrect. be constructive.

[DeeJ]

Well amulet whilst I agree with the limp, I'm less keen on calling 2 more. An ace on the flop can easily win the hand for Hero if everyone limps in but if it gets raised and reraised you probably need the flush or other very fortunate cards.

As it is astro did a great job in isolating the opponent; whether it was successful I don't know /images/graemlins/smile.gif it certainly was expensive.

[mmcd]

Folding this hand preflop is ludicrous. When some one open limps in MP, if they are semi-tightish, (not tight as tight players will rarely do this) I think their hand strength is probably somewhere around QTo, and if they're a little looser, their hand could be anywhere from slightly worse than that to complete trash. You have 3 players behind you. What are the chances one of those 3 random hands is better than A8s and plays for your raise or 3-bets? Also, what are the chances that one of the blinds wakes up with a 3-betting hand?

Personally I think raising is better than calling because you want the button and the lead here, but folding is just plain wrong.

[astroglide]

i posted it for the curious, but immediately deleted it because i came to the conclusion that results can only sour situations like this because it's a grey area for enough people that results will really dominate perceptions of 'who was right'. i think it's really best left unsaid.

[amulet]

interesting. however, i do not think the results matter. the questions have correct and incorrect answers regardless of one hands results.

[TimM]

The results do tend to kill the discussion though. It's probably best to wait until it's already dead, if at all.

[theBruiser500]

GoT, when you bet the flop why are you hoping for a button raise? It's interesting to see how different players think about poker. Like you I find math like this very interesting, so I know what to do in future situations and how much to value certain factors in a hand. Also thanks MMCD for the response, hope I didn't come off as a jerk when I attacked your use of IMO /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[Paluka]

[ QUOTE ]
Folding this hand preflop is ludicrous. When some one open limps in MP, if they are semi-tightish, (not tight as tight players will rarely do this) I think their hand strength is probably somewhere around QTo, and if they're a little looser, their hand could be anywhere from slightly worse than that to complete trash. You have 3 players behind you. What are the chances one of those 3 random hands is better than A8s and plays for your raise or 3-bets? Also, what are the chances that one of the blinds wakes up with a 3-betting hand?

Personally I think raising is better than calling because you want the button and the lead here, but folding is just plain wrong.

[/ QUOTE ]

Maybe we need to re-define some terms. I don't know anyone I'd call semi-tightish who open limps in middle position and has a hand similar to QTo.

[mmcd]

I meant semi-tightish as compared to your typical MP open limper. Most players, I think, would open raise with a hand better than QT. I'll often see people open limping with hands like T9o, T8o, 96s, K7o, 84s, etc.

More like a 30% vpip compared to a 55% vpip.

[sfer]

[ QUOTE ]
i think your responses tend to be angry to my posts. why? someone who shares a passion, deserves respect and kindness. even if you disagree. and the purpose of this form is to discuss poker. therefore, if you disagree instead of making some rude comment, present the reasons you think i am incorrect. be constructive.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's not personal and it's not angry. It's just trying a new way to get you to listen.

[TStoneMBD]

amulet id like to intervene here by mentioning that ive seen you post numerous times and alot of the things that you post are fundamentally incorrect. you are assertive in your remarks and appear to be stubborn in avoidance to change. youre a welcomed addition to the forum in my opinion, but you have some leaks in your posting "game."

[AceHigh]

GOT,

I ran these this thru twodimes and it seems like getting a better Ace to fold is worth about .095 EV. As long as the SB doesn't have AA. So it seems worth 3-betting if the pot is 20sb or larger and you are likely to get the button to fold and you won't get 4-bet some of the time by the SB.

See below:

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=714911
pokenum -h ac kh - as 8s - qh qd -- 6d 4s 7c
Holdem Hi: 903 enumerated boards containing 4s 7c 6d
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Ac Kh 157 17.39 734 81.28 12 1.33 0.178
As 8s 208 23.03 683 75.64 12 1.33 0.235
Qd Qh 526 58.25 365 40.42 12 1.33 0.587

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=714912
pokenum -h as 8s - qh qd -- 6d 4s 7c
Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing 4s 7c 6d
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
As 8s 321 32.42 657 66.36 12 1.21 0.330
Qd Qh 657 66.36 321 32.42 12 1.21 0.670

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=714914
pokenum -h as 8s - ah ad -- 6d 4s 7c
Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing 4s 7c 6d
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
As 8s 212 21.41 766 77.37 12 1.21 0.220
Ad Ah 766 77.37 212 21.41 12 1.21 0.780

[amulet]

do you play A8 in 2nd position?

[mmcd]

WTF does playing A8 in the 2 hole in a 10 handed game have to with this thread?

[billuhbong]

amulets right, weak hand and why bet out with ur backdoor draws when u know ur gonna be raised.. see how the action unfolds first and then determine, ur hand's not good enough to call preflop either ur only winning situation is if u hit a flush, the ace is dominated and ur 8 is nothing good.

[mmcd]

You have some serious and fundamental misconceptions about poker.

[billuhbong]

yes i have a misconception about poker, preflop capped = ace is dominated, the 8 is worthless, only value that hand has is its suited. playing aggresive with those backdoor draws when u know its gonna be raised and capped is retarded. WHY dont u explain ur conception of poker then if u think mine is so offset.

[mmcd]

Calling the 3-bet preflop is marginal. The flop play was correct as has already been pointed out in this thread. To suggest that this hand shouldn't have been played at all preflop is laughable. The only point that is remotely debatable is whether to raise the open limper or just limp behind. A8s is almost certainly better than whatever the hell this guy happens to be open limping with in MP.

[amulet]

nice response. this tread started because someone posted playing A8s in 2nd position.

[amulet]

tstonembd,

i certainly am always look for ways to improve my game, and would be interested in constructive thoughts. unlike many here who attack when they do not agree, you seem to be different. i have certainly noticed a difference in the way i approach the game then many 2 +2ers , and it has made me think.

one of the 1st thing i noticed was the hype aggression of many here. reraising a small field or isolating with a small pair, your 3 betting with K9 (just an example), 3 betting with 77 or 88. then post flop, check raising out of position with a hand that is not best ((like the A8s example in this thread), and often 3 betting when your hand probably isn't good but your aggression might win the pot. also i believe there also seems to be a disregard for position at 2+2 (or a lack of understanding). i push very hard when i enter, but i only do so when i think i am best or can steal, and if i have a good flop, or i am getting the right pot odds i am very aggressive. but when i miss the flop and have no overpair, and the pot odds are incorrect, and there field has several plays who i think the flop hit, i do fold, and quickly. i am a winning player, actually significantly so. and there are players here like roy_miami who i seems to usually agree with (and who clearly understand the game well). i also believe i have a strong understand of the game, and my results have shown said understanding.

however, the way i am looking at much of the above may be wrong. i could have huge misunderstanding of major concepts. i am open to feedback on where you think i lack understanding. i think a discussion like that would be interesting and help us both. i know i have much to learn, and i hard work on my game. if you think i have big flaws in my understanding, please share those thoughts in detailed and constructive ways. thank you.

amulet

[TStoneMBD]

your post causes me to believe that youre a little bit more openminded than i thought. i did not say that you were a losing player, and i am not at all surprised that you are a significantly winning player. however, ive seen quite a few posts in which you had an assertive opinion regarding a matter, while numerous other posters on this forum disagreed with you. maybe using the term "fundamentally incorrect" is a politically incorrect statement as poker is mainly derived of grey shadows and therefore i cant point my finger at you and say "WRONG!" however, when you have 10 posters disagreeing with you and you are the only one defending your side of the arguement, i think you should be closely analysing how you approach this situation and consider that you may in fact be at the lower end of the grey spectrum. its very true that the players on this forum are extremely aggressive, and i disagree with some of hyperaggressive players here, but ive noticed over the past few months that my game has gradually and steadily mended closely to the strategy advised in this forum, right or wrong, and im starting to agree with some of the aggression more regularly. i regularly post things in which i regret later on, sometimes even the same day, because i realize that i was wrong. that is not to say i am not confident in my approach to the game, as i too am a significantly winning player, but i am very open to criticism brought on by the disagreement of posters i respect.

[amulet]

i love constructive thoghts about my posts and my game. i have much to learn. and as i stated earlier, it does make me think when everyone disagrees with me. however, that does not always mean that they are correct, as i think many here have a similar thinking process. however, they very well may be correct. i love when they present WHY instead of telling me i am incorrect.

on several occassions i have received opinions of people like bob ciaffone, dan harrington, and other top players who are not household names when so many disagree with my thoughts on a hand. while i have often they agreeed with my thoughts, i also found they sometimes disagreed, and even had a totally different thought process then everyone who posted including me. i do not mine being the only one who thinks in a certain way, sheer numbers do make make someting correct, but i WANT to understand others thinking. it may change my thinking. i am open to a deeper understanding of the game, and want to improve. as i mentioned, anytime someone disagrees with me, i would love to understand WHY, instead of some rude comment or some "definetly 3 bet" comment. the whys are impt. i also thing that when i present my whys, even if incorrect, instead of just disagreeing with me other posters could be constructive with well thought out reasons and everyone here would benifit. thank you for the feedback, i look forward to continued sharing and learning. as i mention i have a lot to learn.

[astroglide]

for somebody who has a lot to learn, from what i recall you believe you have a lot to teach as well. amulet2222 on party right? if i remember correctly that person did copious amounts of table coaching. that kind of stuff is much more -ev than any actions taken in this hand.

[sthief09]

[ QUOTE ]
i am not sure who the "we" you origional mention are?

i think your responses tend to be angry to my posts. why? someone who shares a passion, deserves respect and kindness. even if you disagree. and the purpose of this form is to discuss poker. therefore, if you disagree instead of making some rude comment, present the reasons you think i am incorrect. be constructive.

[/ QUOTE ]

maybe it's the fact that you repeatedly argue against large groups of people, and state fallacies as fact?

[sthief09]

[ QUOTE ]
for somebody who has a lot to learn, from what i recall you believe you have a lot to teach as well. amulet2222 on party right? if i remember correctly that person did copious amounts of table coaching. that kind of stuff is much more -ev than any actions taken in this hand.

[/ QUOTE ]


one time I check-raised him with a set, he rivered a gut shot, and after the hand wrote "hate to say it, but if you bet the turn, I would've folded." just wanted to get that out because it pissed me off

[amulet]

wrong party name

[amulet]

again, not the right person, different name at pp.

[amulet]

this is exactly the type of angry unconstructive response that repeatedly waste everyones time. if you have a point on why i am incorrect say WHY not just some angry comment. and numbers of posters do not make something correct. i may very well be incorrect, but say why you think so.

[TimM]

There is one limper, who can have who knows what, and five random hands behind you. Yes, A8s could be dominated. So what. My KK could be up against AA, it doesn't mean I am going to fold. If the limper is tight, A8s is going to be about even with his average hand (Edit: and is getting 2.5-1 on the preflop call already). And it has more than its share of equity against any number of random hands. Add in the fact that it can occasionally take huge pots and can also be gotten away from cheap, and I see no reason not to play it.

As far as I can tell, only one person here favors folding the A8s to a single limper. So I think the burden of proof is on you to come up with some harder evidence to support your argument.

[astroglide]

interesting, because they're very tight and phrase their comments somewhat robotically

[sthief09]

[ QUOTE ]
interesting, because they're very tight and phrase their comments somewhat robotically

[/ QUOTE ]


and both happen to play Party 10/20 and 15/30. very few people play Party 10/20 full. What a coincidence!

[BottlesOf]

People have tried that with you and it doesn't work. So, at this point, many people feel it's not worth the trouble.

[amulet]

believe what you want. however, i would tell you if it was the same name. not the name i use at party. at stars i am amulet with no numbers.

[BottlesOf]

The "we" refers to observant posters on this board, who see that you repeatedly think about poker in a very ABC manner and are insanely weak-tight.

[amulet]

johnnny this is one of those absurd comments. what is the "that" that you are attempting to refer to? if you want to explain, i would love a productive dialoge, but if your just some unhappy angry guy, who discards what i wrote to tstone, i don't need the shots or the negitavity. i am suggesting something everyone would benifit from, instead you feel some idiotic reason to attack. does it make you feel better? grow up and use this form for a productive dialoge. i was completely genuine in my comments to tstone and to have a discussion about the whys, not just the one line opinions. you take disagreeing about how to play a poker hand personally, have you considered professional help?

[sublime]

you take disagreeing about how to play a poker hand personally, have you considered professional help?

part of his therapy is changing his avatar once a week. he is getting better.

[sfer]

Johnny got pwned.

[amulet]

you seem to me one very unhappy angery person. who is either unable emotionally, or practically to be productive about the "whys" of a poker hand.

if you think i am weak tight, i am open to hearing about WHY even from you, are you able to have a reasonable conversation? or do you just enjoy the oneline attacks?

[GuyOnTilt]

nice response. this tread started because someone posted playing A8s in 2nd position.

With the amount of time you've spent in this thread telling us how we're wrong and you're right, I would've thought you at least knew what the action of the hand was. Hero was 3 off the Button.

GoT

[GuyOnTilt]

if you think i am weak tight, i am open to hearing about WHY even from you, are you able to have a reasonable conversation? or do you just enjoy the oneline attacks?

The reason for everybody's intolerance of your pathetic play is that this isn't the forum for going over those fundamental errors in thinking. If you started posting in the SS or Micro forum, I'm sure they'd be glad to help you out.

GoT

[sublime]

you seem to me one very unhappy angery person

hes a jets fan. give him a break.

[TimM]

[ QUOTE ]
The reason for everybody's intolerance of your pathetic play is that this isn't the forum for going over those fundamental errors in thinking.

[/ QUOTE ]

That and the fact that he'd rather concentrate on and participate in the flame war rather than argue his actual position.

[amulet]

lol. well it must be something about 2+2 or maybe the poker community online. because the same angry unproductive comments were made by guy on tilt. i think instead of discussing poker, they feel the need to make themselves feel powerful and better. because it certainly is not the productive poker discussion that this was created for or that most here must want. all this over a few missed field goals?

[amulet]

tim, if your discussing me, i think my origional post stated my thoughts on the hand. are you interested in stating why you think i was incorrect, because i would love any "real" thoughts. but if your just interested in having fun attacking it gets old, contribute about the hand.

[BottlesOf]

GoT's respone was dead on. I have 0 interest in talking poker strategy with you until you show some sign of a willingness to learn. I'm not an unhappy person, despite the Jets' loss, but if you'd like to needlessly put me on the couch, feel free.

I am clearly not alone in this belief.

[amulet]

i think it is because you can not discuss the hand. my origional post still does not get responded to by people like you, instead you attack me. why do you think i was incorrect, in the meantime stay off my couch.

[TimM]

You mean I should make a post something like this one (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showthreaded.php?Cat=&amp;Number=1553195&amp;page=0&amp;view=c ollapsed&amp;sb=5&amp;o=14&amp;vc=1)?

[BottlesOf]

Reading comprehension doesn't come easily to you, I see. You seem to be the one who is attacking me telling me I need professoinal help. The "that" to which I refered clearly refers to explaining to you whu you are incorrect. It has been done ad nauseum, and when people try and explain something to you numerous times and you don't internalize it and keep insiting that you're right, they no longer want to help you.

[BottlesOf]

I am not going to waste my time explaining to you why I think you're incorect. If you think that's a sign that I'm unable to, that's fine. Read my 3500 posts and if you still feel that way, more power to you.

The reason I won't waste my time is that other people in this thread have tried. They've tried in previous threads and you don't get it.

If you're not a troll, then you are trying to get a better undertsanding of poker, but seem to be unable to, b/c you're stubborn or b/c you don't have a good grasp of some more sophisticated poker concepts. Why don't you try posting and participating in the micros, with a willingness to learn and move on up?

People don't want to go over fundamental poker problems and re-invent the wheel in Mid-High. It shouldn't be too hard to figure out why people are so frustrated with you here.

[sublime]

because the same angry unproductive comments were made by guy on tilt. i think instead of discussing poker, they feel the need to make themselves feel powerful and better.

GoT probably suffers from a napolean complex. and its not just a few missed field goals, its much more serios than that. the jets dont even have a home.

[BottlesOf]

Huh? Foxboro?

[amulet]

i think my reading is fairly decent. but in case i am incorrect i went back and read the responses to my origional post. it begins with an attack by clarkmeister and is follow mostly my other attacks with a partial response in there. however, there are not real responses. i may be incorrect about the hand, and i am still open to hearing why, but none of you has choosen to give a thought out detailed response. then you say i can not be taught. IF i do need to learn, then would one of you attack dogs show your tremdous ability and write a detailed explaination? if not for me, then for the others who come to this site and want to not just hear an opinion, but a WHY?

[BottlesOf]

Ok, I'm trying to give you the benefit of the doubt here. However, I think it would be more fair to those who have given you helpful resposnes in the past (which I contend you haven't been responsive to) and look at the posts you've made in the past few weeks, where you feel you were also attacked. Read those over. There may not be many strategy discussions with you in this thread, b/c people have grown tired of it, but I KNOW there are some in earlier threads you've made. Why not read over those first?

[astroglide]

[ QUOTE ]
as i mention i have a lot to learn.

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
IF i do need to learn

[/ QUOTE ]

eh?

[Stork]

amulet, you should go back and read GoTs first reply in this thread, he pretty much says why this hand was well played. Summed up, the aggression is correct because it improves your winning chances in this monster pot. Preflop, A8s is an easy limp, and calling 2 bets back is marginal, but ok with good postflop skills.

[amulet]

maybe we can get someplace. i did mean what i said in my posts to tstone. most of the posts you suggest i reread are posts that disagree with me, but do not give a detailed response as to why. very few seem interested in writing anything beyond their opinion. i am open to being incorrect but the whys are impt. maybe my successful results at the tables are based on many misunderstandings, but until someone actually makes real points not one line responses, i can not see the errors your all talking about. and just because i am a lone voice does not mean i am incorrect, but it is very possible.

[BottlesOf]

I'd be willing to bet your decent resutls are b/c you may be a winning player. You seem to have the basics down--which is way more than most party players. However, you're not thinking about the game as sophisticated as you could be. Your thikning seems to be rigid and ABC. If you listened and learned more, you'd be winning even more.

[amulet]

lol, slightly out of context. i do have a lot to learn,,, and If i need to learn from that person about that subject. but in general, i am always learning, and have much to learn on all subjects including poker.

[amulet]

stork, ty i reread it, and found it interesting. i agree with some of it, disagree with other parts. it is very well presented and thought out. food for thought.

i still disagree with your point that A8s is ok to limp with in a typical online game, i think it has a neg ev, but again this is all interesting.

[BottlesOf]

[ QUOTE ]
i think it has a neg ev

[/ QUOTE ]

How about you explain why you think this is?

Also, this is a good example of why I, and others, think you're not open to learning, or thinking in a more complex way. Absolute statements such as Hand X has a -EV are often incorrect, but certianly meaningless. Poker is very situational. Some hands are +EV in some sitautions and -EV in very similar situations. The importance is understanding the difference.

[amulet]

happy to explain it, i think i did in origional post. he has 1 player already in, several to act behind him, the fact that it is suited is only slightly helpful, much not much at high or mid stakes where the fields are small, it makes a flush less then 6% of the time. if it is raised as it was he maybe dominated, even raised by a big pair he has 3 aces about 16% of the time of the flop, and if it was raised behind him and an A comes he has no idea if he is good. A8s in my mind has 3 plays; a raise when 1st in if you think you can steal the blinds in late middle position, a raise in late position to steal but if it does not work your hand may be best, and a limp if a bunch of people have already enter and you are in late position. high and mid limit games are often aggressive and the threat of a raise combined with a larger A being played make me think it has neg ev. and i would think most people who have pokertracker will show it has a neg ev. johnny, that is my thinking, i have expained it, it may be incorrect, if so why do you think i am wrong?

and in this case with it 3 bet back, i think it was a clear fold, but again i could be incorrect, if you think i am incorrect, why?

[BottlesOf]

I think a lot of your reasoning smacks of the faulty reasoning that Ed Miller discusses in his magazine article. Ignoring the importance of low percentage events such as a flush showing up and ignoring the value added by flush draws that lalow you to profitably continue beyond the flop. I think your statement about suitnedness not being important is wrong. I think your statement about mid-high being often shorthanded is wrong as this varies widely, and I think your statement about A8s being -EV in the pokertracker stats of winning players is wrong.

[skp]

I don't agree that raising the turn if Astro hits an Ace is bad. In fact, I think that raising the turn is better against most opponents. Calling is better only against guys capable of betting KK on the river on an Ace high board or against guys capable of playing preflop and flop like this with AK. Those scenarios would apply to a very small percentage of the poker playing population.

[GuyOnTilt]

and i would think most people who have pokertracker will show it has a neg ev.

Most people? Probably. Solid players? I'm almost positive you're wrong.

In my last 100k hands : A8s

Dealt 308 times, net $2,156.50, avg 0.23 BB/hand.
VPIP 48.70, W$WSF 44.52%, PFR 34.09%, WtSD 46.38%, W$SD 62.50%

When I VPIP'd : 0.45 BB/hand

Note:

100k hands is nowhere even remotely close to a large enough sample size for these types of things. But still this should give you a general idea.

GoT

[amulet]

i respect the difference in opinion. 2 points, i said the fact that it was suited only matters slightly, not that it did not matter. and what ed miller wrote was for small stakes games, or very loose games with a lot of people in the pot. i think ssh is brillant. however, i think 2+2ers are applying it too widely. again, i respect your opinion. i would be interested if others with pokertracker gave their results with A8s.

[BottlesOf]

Many 15/30 games fit Ed Miller's description of a SS game, and he has said as much. This should be obvious to anyone who plays party 15/30.

[amulet]

i agree, many do. it depends on the game.

[MarkD]

GoT,

I know you said you don't feel like doing the math for this exact situation but I'd really appreciate it if you changed your mind. I'm trying to get my head wrapped around this flop play and I'm having a tough time with how to do the math for this play. I don't know what math I should be doing (and I used to think I was pretty decent at the math).

I'm sure I'm not the only one that would really appreciate the analysis.

[ QUOTE ]
I'm a numbers guy and incorporate a lot of math and weighted ev calcs and such into my game.

[/ QUOTE ]

Also, as a side note, what does this sentence mean? What is a weighted EV calc and how do you incorporate it into your game?

*** In case it's not obvious, I am not asking serious questions here and am not trying to be an ass. I don't have the time to try and be an ass when I could be improving my crappy play.

[amulet]

interesting. yes we need a larger sample, and winning players too. and of couse the entire discussion is based on position. we need to discount 1st in from late position. after reading several of your posts, i assume many of your hands show positive ev where others can not.

[BottlesOf]

[ QUOTE ]
after reading several of your posts, i assume many of your hands show positive ev where others can not.

[/ QUOTE ]

That doesn't mean we should strive for the same level of play, even if we cannot. GoT is a VERY winning player, but there are lots of other winners, who want to emulate the same style of winning play. He's not such a special case that you can say he should be playing this whereas others shouldn't. It's not that close.

[GuyOnTilt]

we need to discount 1st in from late position.

When discussing whether A8s is a profitble hand or not? Why? It sounds like now you're just trying to find ways to make A8s -EV by selective filtering. Anyway, steal attempts account for only 57.64% of my net with A8s.

GoT

[TStoneMBD]

ok i had enough of this, i was reading all the posts until the last 15 or so. its ridiculous. as an unbiased partison i recommend that you hang your head in shame and agree to stop arguing. youre the villain in every thread amulet, doesnt that say anything? yes its true that many of the posters on this thread prefer oneliners as opposed to explaining themselves. its time consuming to go into depth with fundamental principles, and not everyone can do it every time. there are many posters in this thread that i highly respect, and yet you seem to disregard everything they say. people are not going to explain fundamental principles to you in depth when all you do is say the same sh!t over and over, debating an arguement with the same tangent of bs. if you disagree with something, either present new information or move on to the next thread. you dont have to get the last word in every time inflating each thread to 60 posts. you can also send a word of gratitude now and then, and change positions during the middle of a thread to show that you are apt to change. i have never once seen you change positions on a thread ever. i change positions on a regular basis when i see fit. either you know everything and i know nothing, or youre stubborn. plain and simple.

can someone give me a "pwnage!"?

[BottlesOf]

WA-PWN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[amulet]

not what i said. i think A8s has a ned ev. i also think A8s in early or mid position has an bigger neg ev. but i may be incorrect.

[astroglide]

http://www.pokerroom.com/games/evstats/positionStats.php?players=10

[mmcd]

i think A8s has a neg ev.

This statement is nonsensical. EV in poker doesn't exist in a vaccum.

[BottlesOf]

Thank you. Amulet, are you reading these?

[amulet]

did you read the posts? i gave compliments and we began to have a productive dialoge. but now you choose to say this? i never said i was always correct, and i know i never started the trash talking. but i am tired of it. either be constructive or shut up. and this cann apply to anyone.

and this hand was played badly in the 1st place.

i would love to kick your ass for starting this trash again.

[BottlesOf]

Dude, it's not trash. Everything he wrote is true, can't you see that?

[amulet]

yes. and in several post i discussed it depending on many things. especaially in the post where you asked me my reasoning. but mmcd just enjoys acting like an ass. he read the post where i responded to your "why neg ev question."

[BottlesOf]

Ok, you're reading it, but you're not believing it or something. You still make dumb statements like A8s has neg EV. This is just oversimplistic and so lame.

[amulet]

no johnny i can not. i think i bent over backwards to have a dialoge with you. and we were getting somewhere. and i never begin the trash. he lost it after we made progress. it was pointless and unproductive.

[TimM]

Might as well forget it. He's not walking any middle ground. He's so defensive about how he feels he is being treated here that he will never be able to see the truth.

[BottlesOf]

Ok, I'm losing interest. I'm ready to let this thread die. I gotta rest up for the next round.

[amulet]

read my post about why, before you call the statment dumb. and read where i said i was uncertain but had a opinion, or do you want to digress into a fight after the progress we made. the name calling seems unproductive. i am listening and thinking about the points

[mmcd]

I do indeed enjoy acting like an ass every once in a while, but that doesn't make you any less wrong. The fact of the matter is that A8s has -ev in some situations and +ev in others. That is case with most starting in holdem. AA KK QQ JJ TT AKs AQs AJs AQo will almost always have +ev, just as 92o 82o 72o 63o 62o 95o etc. will almost always have -ev.

A8s in the CO-1 immediately behind an MP open limper has +ev. You can keep spouting off the same rhetoric over and over again ad nauseum, but the fact remains that A8s in the CO -1 behind an MP open limper is +ev!!!

[BottlesOf]

Dude stop talking about the progress we made/are making. We're not in a relationship. I could care less about "progress." If you continue to make dumb blanket statements, I'm not going to just let them slide. I'm not calling you a name, I didn't call you dumb, I called the statement dumb, why are you so defensive?

I read your post about why, I've read all your posts and replied to nearly all of them. Yet you still generalize when you say hand X has neg EV. You need to realize the pointlessness of such a statement if you want to reach the next level.

[Ulysses]

I need some professional help after reading this thread.

[amulet]

i am letting this die with you johnny. it was not a complete waste of time, but not worth the energy. we exchanged some thoughts, and hopefully both thought deeper about this.

[amulet]

read my post about A8 and it's value in response to johnney's question. i think you will find i agree with you!

[slavic]

[ QUOTE ]
I need some professional help after reading this thread.

[/ QUOTE ]

I would not suggest the high colonic.

stick to the swedish massage, professionaly done you should forget this thread in no time.

[amulet]

stupidy we showed aside, do you have an opinion on the origional hand that started this?

[skp]

[ QUOTE ]
Well, all that italicized stuff leaves us nothing more to talk about...

[/ QUOTE ]

Egg meet face...heh...

[sfer]

Oh snap! Now Diablo got pwned! When does it stop!

[amulet]

i haved like his past posts interested in his opinion, assuming he is not a jet fan.

[Ulysses]

[ QUOTE ]
Oh snap! Now Diablo got pwned! When does it stop!

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not exactly sure what pwned means, but I think what I did to your mom last night qualifies.

[BottlesOf]

SFer = PIZN00NNZORED!

[sfer]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm not exactly sure what pwned means, but I think what I did to your mom last night qualifies.

[/ QUOTE ]

My mother is dead.

[Ulysses]

[ QUOTE ]
stupidy we showed aside, do you have an opinion on the origional hand that started this?

[/ QUOTE ]

Once BB and MP1 call the 3-bet, I'm calling too. If they had folded, I'd probably fold to the 3-bet. But once they call, I'm in. Post-flop is good for the reasons others have stated.

[BottlesOf]

She finally walked in on you?

[Ulysses]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I'm not exactly sure what pwned means, but I think what I did to your mom last night qualifies.

[/ QUOTE ]

My mother is dead.

[/ QUOTE ]

That response is so played out. I expected better.

[sfer]

You think I joke? Why do you think I'm suck a bitter prick?

Only TSC could improve this thread.

[BottlesOf]

Oh [censored] x2!!!!!!!!!!

[BottlesOf]

Can this thread be the Mid-High version of the PLO8 thread?

[RainFall]

yeah Oedipus over there has been bitter every since her passing.. Show some respect

[sfer]

[ QUOTE ]
yeah Oedipus over there has been bitter every since her passing.. Show some respect

[/ QUOTE ]

Oedipus got to bone his mother. That would make Diablo proud.

[Ulysses]

[ QUOTE ]
You think I joke? Why do you think I'm suck a bitter prick?


[/ QUOTE ]

I just figured you hated yourself cuz your comebacks are so weak.

[GuyOnTilt]

not what i said. i think A8s has a ned ev. i also think A8s in early or mid position has an bigger neg ev. but i may be incorrect.

You have got to be fucking joking me. If you're not joking, I'm done responding to anything you post on these boards. You obvious lack the mental facilities to comprehend information and/or attempt to think objectively. If that's true, you really should just give up on poker.

GoT

[amulet]

if you never respond again that would be great. keep your word!

[BottlesOf]

You just got pwned harder than anyone ever, and that's all you came up with?

[sfer]

C'mon Diablo. A mom joke. A mom joke. That's sooooo White Men Can't Jump.

[GuyOnTilt]

You are now ignoring this user. You will no longer see the body of any of their posts.

GoT

[Ulysses]

[ QUOTE ]
C'mon Diablo. A mom joke. A mom joke. That's sooooo White Men Can't Jump.

[/ QUOTE ]

This comeback might have been funny had you responded to the initial mom joke with it. Resorting to it after a handful of failed comebacks is as weak as, well, I can't really say since I can't think of anything quite that weak.

[BottlesOf]

Game. Set. Match.

[Ulysses]

BTW, putting in fake characters so you can type swear words spelled correctly is pretty lame.

[sfer]

In two weeks I'm going to write a jerkstore post that will rule.

[mikelow]

I would have folded preflop. The limp is fine, but the hand and position aren't good enough to call two more bets cold.

As for the flop, good luck!

[MarkD]

I know there was a whole big thing going on with amulet over something silly when I posed this request but I'm wondering if you have changed your mind about showing us the analysis that you discussed? Maybe I was ignored, so I'll bump this one time as I am sure I am not hte only one who would benefit from knowing HOW to do the type of analysis that you discuss.

I also would still love an answer to this side question:
[ QUOTE ]
Also, as a side note, what does this sentence mean? What is a weighted EV calc and how do you incorporate it into your game?


[/ QUOTE ]

[BottlesOf]

I'd like this answer too, but I think a pm to Got, and then a posted reply would be a better way for us to get it, as this thread is a shitshow.

[cpk]

I think you're forgetting one thing in your ragfest against A8--being suited matters. In loose or even neutral games--being suited matters a lot. Finally, aggression or domination doesn't neutralize being suited.

Being suited is not enough to take a horrible hand and turn it into a +EV hand. But it can take a slightly -EV hand and turn it into a slightly +EV hand. The trick is you have to pick your spots. I think you're being slightly too selective. In general, A8s is safe in middle or late position, and if 3+ limp in, you can even raise with this (often folding hands like ATo, which is a win). You have to be careful with raising though--not doing it when people are prone to limping in with monsters.

Still, I think your general reasons as to why A8 (rankwise) is trash are sound. It's just that you don't give enough value to suited aces. Remember--increasing a hand's winning percentage by 6 points is really a 20-25% increase. That's a huge difference!

[fnord_too]

[ QUOTE ]
http://www.pokerroom.com/games/evstats/positionStats.php?players=10

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm embarrased to say I have never seen this before. Thanks astro, this makes skimming this whole thread worthwile. Also, I like the hand. The added treat is if you catch you get to hear a lot of pissing and moaning about "how could you possibly blah blah blah."

[scdavis0]

All the mathematical analysis of whether these +EV raises is based on the fact that he indeed get people to fold their hands. This is not always the case. How does the math change if we say someone will only fold AK/AQ 80% of the time? 60%? If these people don't fold you are jamming the flop in a situation where you are essentially crushed. This must be a part of the analysis and could indeed make this play prove to be -EV.

[Entity]

[ QUOTE ]
You are now ignoring this user. You will no longer see the body of any of their posts.

GoT

[/ QUOTE ]

I hate to be a copycat, but:

You are now ignoring this user. You will no longer see the body of any of their posts.

The mid/high forum is a better place now.

Rob