The importance of tells in online poker

[adanthar]

First level of a 50+5. Most of my opponents are random but the girl (avatar) to my right has 300 hands in my DB and is seated across from me on another table and halfway through the first hand it occurs to me she's a Step 5 regular. Her VP$IP/raise numbers in those 300 hands are something like 12/4, or maybe 11/3.

So, I pick up tens in LP, there are seven billion limpers to her, she limps and I limp and some pirate with a pegleg behind me limps in and orders the Happy Family.

The flop is KT4 rainbow. The SB decides to minbet into six or eight people, they all call and I raise to 90. A bunch of people fold, the BB calls, and the Step regular thinks a while (down to the 20 second timer) and calls.

The turn is an A. They check to me and I'm moving the slider to the right when alarm bells go off in my head. I pause for a while, consider what I'm about to do and check behind.

The river's an 8. BB checks, the regular bets 275 into the 375 pot, I sigh and pay off her straight while cursing the BB's flop call between my teeth.

I think the next time I'll just fold. Okay, maybe not, but I don't think I was *that* sure she could've had the fours.

[The Yugoslavian]

Flop: I'm assuming the pot is 105 here based on your reported size of the pot on the river (after it got checked through on the turn). You raise 75 after the min-raise which seems about right I suppose. Although it almost guarantees the min-raiser will call (which you end up cursing later on).

Turn: Shouldn't you bet the turn to see where you stand? I agree that just sliding the slider over may not be the way to go but if you are afraid of the straight I'd try to find out now rather than get bet into heavily on the river and probably pay it off.

River: Ummm, based on your turn play shouldn't you be folding this? Your pot odds are not that great as she bet quite a bit -- if you have a very strong read that she has the straight, she'll need to have a beaten hand a lot of the time for this river call to pay off for you.

From the tone of your post it seems she did indeed have the straight but still, if I pegged her on it I wouldn't call the river bet (as pot odds aren't great) and I'd most likely be betting the turn as I have a draw if I'm up against a straight or likely have the best hand anyway.

Yugoslav

[adanthar]

[ QUOTE ]
Flop: I'm assuming the pot is 105 here based on your reported size of the pot on the river (after it got checked through on the turn). You raise 75 after the min-raise which seems about right I suppose. Although it almost guarantees the min-raiser will call (which you end up cursing later on).

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Oddly enough, the minbettor folded and the BB called. Some guys just can't fold top pair (though he folded the river so I can't tell you his kicker).

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Turn: Shouldn't you bet the turn to see where you stand? ... River: Ummm, based on your turn play shouldn't you be folding this?

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I was literally deciding whether to weak lead or make a standard 2/3 bet or...and then something clicked. How many hands does she limp, make that hesitation with, and then call a minbet and a raise?

I could think of *two* and the fours didn't seem that likely. Problem is, she checkraises both of them and if I call a minimum CR (which I have odds for) my stack is going in on any river. Nope, gotta keep the pot small(er).

Also, I don't generally fold sets. That gets me yelled at and I can't make posts about how cool I am.

[The Yugoslavian]

I agree that it would seem she could have one of two hands with her call on the flop -- you beat one of them and lose to one of them most of the time. I don't see why betting on the turn, getting a small raise -- calling (to see if you hit your full house) means you have to put the rest of your stack in on the river. However, I too like keeping the pot small.

As for not generally folding sets, don't worry, I'll still think you're cool /images/graemlins/wink.gif. Seriously though, aren't the chances she has QJ greater than if she has 44 by the river? Let's say the only two hands she'll play in this manner are QJ and 44 (and 5% will be bluffs with any hand). QJ is such a more likely holding statistically than 44 here. A 4 is already out meaning she has to have 2 of the remaining 3. As far as Queens and Jacks, none are accounted for and there are many more ways they combine to make a hand. I suck at even basic probability I guess, but I'd guess QJ statistically speaking is ~3 times more likely here? Even factoring in the small chance she may be bluffing I don't see your pot odds here (and this doesn't even factor in the $EV vs. CEV situation).

I dunno, I'm probably a moron, but that's my take on it.

FWIW, I doubt I could get this solid a read even on a regular step 5 player so I'd be raising the turn and either backing down or jamming the river.

Yugoslav

[microbet]

I suck at probability too, but I think there are 16 ways to make QJ and 3 ways (in this case) to make 44. Assuming, and you may not have assumed this, that no further clue for deciding between the two was given by her play, I think QJ is 5 times as likely.

[The Yugoslavian]

I got 3 for 44 and 10 for QJ. Ugh.

Why the f*ck didn't I learn basic probability at some point? /images/graemlins/mad.gif

Better yet, why can't I find a primer that makes sense? /images/graemlins/mad.gif

I checked the probability forum for a while but didn't really find anything all that useful. /images/graemlins/confused.gif

This is a huge leak in my general thinking let alone poker -- I am now going to go hang myself Shawshank Redemption style. /images/graemlins/wink.gif

Yugoslav

[adanthar]

[ QUOTE ]
I suck at probability too, but I think there are 16 ways to make QJ and 3 ways (in this case) to make 44. Assuming, and you may not have assumed this, that no further clue for deciding between the two was given by her play, I think QJ is 5 times as likely.

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Eh, to be honest, my thought on the river was basically 'I have a set, I'll call'.

I'm good enough to act on my instincts...some of the time. I think with another year of experience, I fold here.

<font color="white">And really, the point of the post was mostly to point out just how much of a read you can get, even online.</font>

[Benholio]

Whats a 11-12 VPIP player doing playing QJ? I guess they were at least suited?

[The Yugoslavian]

Probably doing it b/c so many people have already limped. Since everyone is going to be in the pot, the implied odds of QJs or QJo are damn good. Although you do have a point. Maybe on the river this then changes the question to, how likely is your opponent having 44, and how likely is it that she has QJs? Maybe now a call is correct, I dunno, I'm still trying to find a damn primer on probability, /images/graemlins/grin.gif.

Yugoslav

[adanthar]

She actually had QJo, but her numbers were from Step 5 - I'm guessing she (properly) loosened up in the 50's with that many limpers in front.

The thought did cross my mind but it was just such an obvious tell that it was very easy to narrow her hand down. She's not making that play with KQ or even AA-AK.

[Marcotte]

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I'd most likely be betting the turn as I have a draw if I'm up against a straight or likely have the best hand anyway.

Yugoslav

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I think in HEFAP DS says you should check hands that, if currently beaten have a good redraw, and bet hands that, if beaten, don't have a redraw. I think the example he uses is AKs with TPTK and a 4 flush on the turn. If someone has a set, you can draw to the flush, but if you bet, you may get raised so big you have to lay it down. OTOH, with no flush draw, if you are raised you can lay it down with no worries.

On the turn you have at most 9 outs to the boat, but probably only 7 or 8. If you are very confident in your read, then I like the check.

On the flop, I'd raise more. The flop seems benign, but with that many limpers I wouldn't mind taking it down right there. You may even get a lot of action from a fish with KQ/J/T. Maybe I don't get enough value out of my sets though.

[(my name it is) Sam Hall]

...stats forum never has any *real* answers anyway. If this helps, great. I calculated the QJ to be 16/3=5.33 times as likely as 44. There are 45 cards in the stub or other hands: 4 jacks, 4 queens, and 3 fours among them. To pick a queen, then a jack is (4/45)*(3/44). Multiply by two since you could pick the jack first, then the queen. To pick two fours, it is (3/45)*(2/44). The ratio is 0.16161/0.00303=16/3=5.33. If this is wrong someone please let me know so I can stop embarrassing myself by acting like I know stuff.

Sam