bluffing a bad player

[davidross]

Had an interesting hand last night in the $100 NL tournament. I love this tournament, the calibre of player is just a notch below the $150 Super player. I was playing the SUper at the same time, so my attention wasn't fully on this game, but my reads were pretty good.

Blinds were 25/50 and both myself and the villain had around 1400 in chips. There is a minimum raise in EP, and 2 cold calls to me in the BB with T6s. I take a flyer for the extra $50. Flop is T 4 4. I check, 2 more checks, then the mediocre player in MP bets 225. I decide right there to represent a 4. I'm fairly confident he has a T, and it's almost certainly better than mine, but I decide to play it the way an average player would and call the flop and check-raise the turn. So I call, and the other 2 fold out of our way. Turn is a 5. I check and he bets only 150 this time.

Now just before I put the hammer down, I get nervous. What if he isn't good enough to lay down his T? THere are certainly enough players like that in these tournaments. Clearly I should have considered this before I set out on this path, but now I got cold feet. I am ashamed to say I just called, and when a Q rivered we chopped the pot, his T9 getting couterfeited.

How do you decide whether or not someone is good enough to make a laydown? It's easy when you know they don't have anything, but when they do have a hand it's tougher.

[esbesb]

I don't know the answer, but it's a really important question. There is a lot of money to be lost bluffing players who can't be bluffed. I think it's easier live than on line to make a judgment. On line, I guess you have to watch what they've been calling with and just try to make an educated guess about the player.

[SoBeDude]

I guess it depends on your definition of "Bad".

If he's weak-tight, then a bluff against him is a good play.

If he's bad in the sense he's calling with any piece, then the bluff is horrible.

-Scott

[zaxx19]

I think the better question is do you call here preflop and intend to represent an odd hand that could be dangerous given the texture of the flop, not knowing if this guys can lay TPTK?? I mean is this the way you usually play in the blinds??...It can be very profitable against certain competition but hazardous to your stack against less sophiticated players.

What was the play once you called preflop is what Im asking basically since this hand is pretty much garbage and you are out if position..

[ZootMurph]

Early in a tournament, with no reads on a player, it is important to be aggressive. I'd have lead out with a half-pot to a pot sized bet on the flop (dependent on the texture of the table), hoping to win a small pot right there. You aren't going to get any reads on a player by checking to them.

And, if he is a bad player, he won't lay down a ten or he COULD be sitting on a 4... hard to know without betting at him and gauging his response.

So, early in tournaments in a situation like this, bet out.

[fnord_too]

Well, of course you should not bluff a loose bad player. To decide what I would do on that particular hand, I probably would be looking at his stats and trying to make a determination of how loose and how aggressive he was. He was last to act on the flop, so he could be just taking a stab at the pot. I don't think I get fancy on this flop, though. Your stack is not really deep enough to make a move without committing yourself to the hand. (Say you c/r the flop, which IMO is better than c/ring the turn here: You have ~1075 after figuring in his 225 raise, and any raise < 500 is pretty silly, so you are left with < T600 after your move. Might as well just c/r all in on the flop if you are going to do anything. C/Ring the turn is bad because now even a good player will probably call you with a T since he will likely be pot committed if he compies and bets the turn.)

At any rate, here is my preference of plays on the flop:

1. Bet out. If you pick up the pot, fine. Fold to any raise (not worth it to get all your chips in here unless you are pretty damn sure you can get a better hand to fold). If you get called, check and only call very small bets. (Maybe make a blocking bet on the end if no or little money went in on the turn.) This is what I will do most of the time since I really don't have chips to do much else.

2. Check / Raise all in: Risky, but it is early in the tournament still, so this is not that bad, either.

3. Check / Fold: I don't like check folding what is likely the best hand, but even if I am winning right now, there is a strong chance I will be overtaken by the river, or outplayed if an over hits.

I think the pre flop call is good, but I do not like the flop check call at all.

[fnord_too]

[ QUOTE ]
I think the better question is do you call here preflop and intend to represent an odd hand that could be dangerous given the texture of the flop, not knowing if this guys can lay TPTK?? I mean is this the way you usually play in the blinds??...It can be very profitable against certain competition but hazardous to your stack against less sophiticated players.

What was the play once you called preflop is what Im asking basically since this hand is pretty much garbage and you are out if position..

[/ QUOTE ]

He is getting 7-1, closing the action, on his pre-flop call. Also, if he hits a hand, he has a great chance of getting paid off. The pre flop call is fine, but I would not intend to represent anything on an odd flop. I would not be planning to represent anything post flop.

[davidross]

I only made the flop call because I was planning on check-raising the turn. I put this guy on exactly what he had. He hadn't shown any sign of trying to pick up a pot with a stab at it.

Do you really think he's committed on the turn? he still has around 1K left although the pot is now over 1K. Again it comes down to whether he's willing to make a semi-big laydown.

[DougShrapnel]

I think you ended up making the correct play by not bluffing this. It's early and you know he has a hand, [censored] he has two pair after all. And in some players minds that is good enough.

I think if you have better knowledge of this player then you can and should make this bluff. There are tons of players who won't call that without atleast J's and 4's perhaps there is some sort of stereo type. Like maybe when they bet less on the turn than on the flop, you should bluff em.

[davidross]

I really don't like the bet out. I can't call any kind of raise, so if there is anyone aggressive behind me I'm throwing those chips away. If there is any serious action I'm folding. If this guy had bet near the pot I'd know he was serious and just let it go. But once we were heads up I knew pretty well what he had, just not what he'd do when faced with an all-in re-raise.

[davidross]

The size of his flop bet was a big giveaway. It's one of the things I like about that $100 tournament, the bets usually mean exactly what they seem. When you move up to the bigger tournaments you run into a lot more players who will make a tricky sized bet to throw you off, but not usually in this tournament.

[fnord_too]

[ QUOTE ]
I only made the flop call because I was planning on check-raising the turn. I put this guy on exactly what he had. He hadn't shown any sign of trying to pick up a pot with a stab at it.

Do you really think he's committed on the turn? he still has around 1K left although the pot is now over 1K. Again it comes down to whether he's willing to make a semi-big laydown.

[/ QUOTE ]

As I see it, 1400 to start the hand, less the flop call for 1300, less the raise for 1075. Pot is 875 on the turn.

Now you check to him, what realistic bet is he going to make that does not pot commit him? (150 is not what I would consider a realistic bet here /images/graemlins/grin.gif ).

So, really, his options on the turn are to check behind or push (though he may bet out say 475, leaving himself with 600, but getting over 4:1 on a call if you push, facing having a short stack if he folds.)

I really think if you want to c/r him, you should do it on the flop because on the turn he will (usually) check behind or remove at least most of your folding equity with his bet. Pushing out on the turn is a thought, but why not just push with a c/r on the flop if you are going to do that? (I don't see the other two opponents who checked the flop as even in the pot anymore. If they are they have a monster. Maybe you save yourself when one of them check smooth calls with something like A4s, but that is pretty unlikely, and any J Q K or A will make the turn play very dicey.)

[fnord_too]

[ QUOTE ]
The size of his flop bet was a big giveaway. It's one of the things I like about that $100 tournament, the bets usually mean exactly what they seem. When you move up to the bigger tournaments you run into a lot more players who will make a tricky sized bet to throw you off, but not usually in this tournament.

[/ QUOTE ]

Really? I think I need to start playing these. (I will probably have to make some bet size adjustments though, maybe up my standard post flop bet a little.)

[betgo]

This is not a good time to bluff. You have a hand that may be the best, but is pretty weak.

I would be concerned that the calling station type player bet. He might have called the miniraise with a 4.

There are a lot of ways to play this hand or not play it. However, I don't like the idea of putting a lot of chips in, as you will only be called if you are beaten.