Party 2/4 Bad beat jackpot holdem - Multiple questions in this hand

[BlueBear]

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is Button with K/images/graemlins/club.gif, K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
UTG folds, UTG+1 folds, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+2 raises</font>, MP1 folds, MP2 folds, MP3 folds, CO folds, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, SB folds, BB folds, UTG+2 calls.

Flop: (6.50 SB) J/images/graemlins/club.gif, 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif, A/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">UTG+2 bets</font>, Hero calls.

Turn: (4.25 BB) A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
UTG+2 checks, Hero checks.

River: (4.25 BB) A/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">UTG+2 bets</font>, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 6.25 BB

Questions:

1) Should I call or reraise preflop? Note that this is a bad beat jackpot table at the $650,000 mark and that I should consider calling in order to let players holding speculative holdings (such as suited connectors) limp in cheaply.

2) I have no reads of my opponent, is it an value auto-bet on the turn? Naturally, I fear a check-raise as typical players will check-raise their trip aces.

3) Three aces on the board reduces the probability that my opponent has the remaining ace. Should I attempt a value raise here? Or is this unwise?

[Milky]

Well if you're checking the turn I would raise the river.

I'd actually bet the turn here.

[Entity]

Definitely 3-bet preflop.

Your hand really isn't vulnerable at all, so I like checking the turn here. It's straight out of HEPFAP, especially if your opponent has the ability to fold QQ/TT to a turn bet.

Value raising the river is probably fine, but only if he'll pay off with QQ/TT. If you can't know for sure what a 3-bet from him means and can't safely fold to it, it's probably close.

Overall I like your line.

Rob

[chief444]

I agree with everything except I don't think the river raise is that close. I would definitely raise it.

[MyssGuy]

[ QUOTE ]
1) Should I call or reraise preflop? Note that this is a bad beat jackpot table at the $650,000 mark and that I should consider calling in order to let players holding speculative holdings (such as suited connectors) limp in cheaply.


[/ QUOTE ]

Do not change your play because of the BBJ! Bet this hand!

[axioma]

yup, raise the river and everythings fine.

[Entity]

[ QUOTE ]
I agree with everything except I don't think the river raise is that close. I would definitely raise it.

[/ QUOTE ]

Can you fold to a 3-bet? If not, and you think there's a greater than 66% chance that QQ, TT, and JJ call a raise (JJ surely will; the others probably will as well, but I can't say for sure), then yeah, it's an easy raise. But I can't fold here against an unknown; from what I've seen at 2/4, he probably calls your raise, but I don't think it's clear.

Rob

[chief444]

I would call a 3-bet for sure.

I do believe KK is best at least 2/3 times here. Add in the fact that QQ or even other worse hands may 3-bet as well and I don't even think you need to be best quite that often. I believe any J or pocket pair calls this bet at least most of the time.

[PokerMike]

Hey Bluebear, by calling the flop you have gained no information, which you are desperately in need of - it's as if you decided right then and there that you are in call-down mode, which is way way too early.

I think you need to raise this flop. You're headsup and the villian could be betting a range of hands. I would then lead the turn and go into call down mode if raised. Note that i am a newb here and usually the one posting questions - i'd like to hear what the more knowledgeable posters have to say.

Here is a hand i played while i was responding to your post.

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, K/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
UTG folds, UTG+1 folds, MP1 folds, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, MP3 folds, CO folds, Button folds, SB folds, <font color="#CC3333">BB 3-bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero caps</font>, BB calls.

Flop: (8.33 SB) A/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 2/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 9/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, BB folds.

Final Pot: 5.66 BB

BTW hows Canberra going? Boring as hell? /images/graemlins/smirk.gif

[Entity]

[ QUOTE ]
Hey Bluebear, by calling the flop you have gained no information, which you are desperately in need of - it's as if you decided right then and there that you are in call-down mode, which is way way too early.

I think you need to raise this flop. You're headsup and the villian could be betting a range of hands. I would then lead the turn and go into call down mode if raised. Note that i am a newb here and usually the one posting questions - i'd like to hear what the more knowledgeable posters have to say.

Here is a hand i played while i was responding to your post.

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, K/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
UTG folds, UTG+1 folds, MP1 folds, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, MP3 folds, CO folds, Button folds, SB folds, <font color="#CC3333">BB 3-bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero caps</font>, BB calls.

Flop: (8.33 SB) A/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 2/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 9/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, BB folds.

Final Pot: 5.66 BB

BTW hows Canberra going? Boring as hell? /images/graemlins/smirk.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

Hey Mike,

Do you see that it's quite possible that you could have earned a lot more from 99, TT, JJ, or QQ in your hand?

Rob

[PokerMike]

But if he has an ace you've decided to put in 2.5BB from the flop calling him down and not gaining any info. And there are many ways he could be holding an ace no?(talking about flop raise here)

You are right that you gain more from 99 TT QQ, but you lose more from AK AQ AJ AT JJ.

IMO calling a flop bet and checking the turn with kings is way too passive, and like i said, you've decided to get to showdown as cheaply as possible and go into calldown mode too soon.

[mtdoak]

I raise the flop here. He could be betting with a jack. Also, since you have position, you most likley will have the option to check when the second ace hits, and you can raise when the 3rd one hits (you have the 2nd nuts)

[tolbiny]

"IMO calling a flop bet and checking the turn with kings is way too passive, and like i said, you've decided to get to showdown as cheaply as possible and go into calldown mode too soon."

With your method you are investing at a minimum of 1 BB on the flop, and when are you folding? not to a three bet on the flop getting 14-1 on your call with the nut backdoor flush draw to go with your set outs?
On the turn when he check/raises you? it is very likely that you will end up putting in 1.5-2 BB just "finding ou where you are" which will cost you numerous bets when he would have continued putting bets in with QQ-TT for you, and you loose the times he is just getting ovely aggor with an underpair trying to push you off KK.

[arkady]

hey Mike,

I also am very pleased to know I just pushed out a bluffer.

[PokerMike]

Harsh...raise no good? 4-flush is down.

[MHarris]

1. Don't EVER call preflop for this reason. First, it doesn't make a difference how many players see the flop. If 4 players are dealt cards and the pot is raked, that is what's important. This hand fits both criteria.
2. Yes, this is an automatic value bet. It should be a reflex. Typical players may not c/r here, as they would fear you checking behind.
3. Please, raise the river. You just pulled ahead of JJ. You have no reason to expect to see an A here until you're 3-bet.

[Entity]

[ QUOTE ]
But if he has an ace you've decided to put in 2.5BB from the flop calling him down and not gaining any info. And there are many ways he could be holding an ace no?(talking about flop raise here)

You are right that you gain more from 99 TT QQ, but you lose more from AK AQ AJ AT JJ.

IMO calling a flop bet and checking the turn with kings is way too passive, and like i said, you've decided to get to showdown as cheaply as possible and go into calldown mode too soon.

[/ QUOTE ]

Being passive isn't inherently bad.

In your hand, there are two ways for him to have AK, and if he's really aggro, three more ways for him to have AQs or AJs. It's very rare that AQo or AJo get 3-bet in HU situations from the BB.

How many other Ace hands does your average player 3-bet from the BB? So he's got TT-QQ 18 times, and a hand with an ace 5 times. In an 8.3SB pot you will have to pay 2.5BB to call down and see an eventual pot size of 18.3SB, or 13.33:5 effective odds; add that to the fact that you've got a 3 outer which will improve to the winner when you are behind ~10% of the time. You've got to win this pot around 30% of the time for calling down to show a profit, and in this situation, I'm definitely not 70% sure that he has an Ace in his hand. So yeah, I call down. I bet if checked to if he'll call, and occasionally check behind on the turn to induce another bet from TT or whatever that may just fold.

I recant my original statement about not raising the river here, though, I thought about it for a while and I'm definitely thinking QQ will get suspicious and call, and while getting 3-bet sucks, you'll get paid off more than often enough to make this a good river raise.

Rob

[arkady]

lol, just messin' with ya.

those situations are always tough...you are either way ahead or way behind.

I simply want to remind people, that when they hold KK/QQ and an A flops the initial reaction is to cringe or sigh. Further exarcebated by a bet into you the pre-flop raiser and it is always pleasing to raise and see the villain fold. You almost want to pump your fist and scream "YEA!", but often what you have done is raised a probing bet and thus effectively stopped villain from bluffing. The other solution is to let him bluff, but alas, what if villain is indeed holding the A? As you see it is not simple, but I just like to remind some people of the subtlelty.

P.S. The solution will be player specific.