Help! I've been turned into a calling station.

[gaming_mouse]

This is ugly. Both my flop callers were tight and passive. I was 90% sure I was beat right when they called. I know the typical TAG line here would be to continue betting until you hit a raise, and then fold. But I honestly think check/folding the turn would have been better, given my read, which was based on their 20 or lower VPIP's plus low aggr numbers. Is this line totally crazy?

Obviously the line I took is worst of all: feel free to make fun of me.


Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is BB with T/images/graemlins/club.gif, J/images/graemlins/club.gif. CO posts a blind of $3.
UTG folds, UTG+1 calls, MP1 folds, MP2 folds, MP3 folds, CO (poster) checks, Button folds, SB folds, Hero checks.

Flop: (3.33 SB) 9/images/graemlins/club.gif, A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, J/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, UTG+1 calls, CO calls.

Turn: (3.16 BB) 6/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 bets</font>, CO folds, Hero calls.

River: (5.16 BB) 3/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 bets</font>, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 7.16 BB

[kyzerjose]

Hmmm, looks like me sometimes.
With no real claim to fame, here are my thoughts:
As a transitioning TP I think you're probably ahead on the flop but behind on the turn. Ax isn't my concern but a set of 6's or J better kicker is. Just from personal experience, that's pretty much how I would have played PP6 from UTG+1. QJo &amp; KJo too.
So yes, I can understand CF the turn. If you're normally not a monsters under the bed sort, what the heck, believe in your read.

[adamstewart]

[ QUOTE ]
I think you're probably ahead on the flop but behind on the turn. Ax isn't my concern but a set of 6's

[/ QUOTE ]

WTF!?!?



Anyway, flop was fairly drawless (except if you have some reason to think both villains will chase gutshots). I'm worried about Ace,rag here. Smallish pot, so I'd check/fold the turn.

Adam.

[StellarWind]

[ QUOTE ]
Both my flop callers were tight and passive.

[/ QUOTE ]
If these reads are solid I think checkfolding the turn is indicated. They each have something and most of the likely somethings beat you (ace, better jack, 99). If there was just one opponent I would continue, but the odds that both of them are playing worse hands are a lot longer than the current pot odds.

There is also the outs issue. Your five outs are often bad for various reasons. If they are behind you can expect hands like nines and OESDs that will provide them with a lot of outs. Even when you are ahead you will often lose.

Naturally checkcalling is awful. If you must play on, bet.

[aron]

Looks like several people (including you) who are pretty unsure about if their hands are any good.

If even a call make you think you are beat by these guys I think a turn fold is in order.

This is a tricky spot since if you keep betting all the way a A rag won't raise you. On the other hand you show you weakness with the turn check and invite someone to bluff. Unless you are known as a check-raiser.

-aron

[chief444]

When I'm 90% sure I'm beat I don't call 1 BB in a 4.16 BB pot on the turn. I think check/folding would be fine here.

If you do intend to call the turn then I think betting is a far better option.

[dantheman_05]

this is a micro pot ! why waste your time here. the only possible way i would play this is check rasie the flop. you havea misunderstanding abot this limit game. J10s is a great starting hand. but like EVERY hand it has its time and place!. this is not one of them for J10s. even if the pot was huge, i may not even push becasue that Ace. i think you were having a losing session and flew a little open. try to think befor eyou act. think about what the "correct" play is in every situation. think "what woudl an expert do?"

[adamstewart]

[ QUOTE ]
this is a micro pot ! why waste your time here. the only possible way i would play this is check rasie the flop. you havea misunderstanding abot this limit game. J10s is a great starting hand. but like EVERY hand it has its time and place!. this is not one of them for J10s. even if the pot was huge, i may not even push becasue that Ace. i think you were having a losing session and flew a little open. try to think befor eyou act. think about what the "correct" play is in every situation. think "what woudl an expert do?"

[/ QUOTE ]

Not what you have suggested.


Check-raising the flop commits you to leading out on the turn, and slows down Ax into calling mode. You lose way more.

Betting out at this pot is fine with only two other opponents.

Adam

[StellarWind]

[ QUOTE ]
the only possible way i would play this is check rasie the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]
OMG. Against two tight/passive players? When you are ahead they take a free card. When you are behind with 0-5 outs they bet and you checkraise.

Bet out and trust your opponents not to call this flop without a real hand. You have two chances to win this pot: 1) they both missed the flop and consequently fold and 2) you improve on the turn. That's plenty to bet the flop with. But it's over. You lost so leave quietly before they drag you away at showdown. No one ever got rich betting a doubtful made hand at calling tight/passives.

Actually there is a third way to win. If you really have the best hand they will probably give you a free card on the turn. You may even get a free card with a drawing hand. Checkfolding actually has considerably more than zero EV.

[runa]

I suppose this sounds silly but a couple of questions. Over how many hands are you basing this off of, what range of hands do you put your opponents on, and how can you be 90% sure you're behind when called?

I really do think you have to bet the turn, fold to a raise, or check the river if called.

[dantheman_05]

i said the only way i would play this is to check raise. i didnt say i would play this hand, actually i said even if the pot was huge i wouldnt push. my popint was te hpot is too small to play this hand.

[gaming_mouse]

Stellar,

Thanks for your comments.

It's good to know my instincts were right and that check/folding an unimproved turn is correct. I'm not sure why I second guessed it -- probably just because I had 2nd pair. Silly.

gm

[dantheman_05]

everyone missed my point entirely! i was trying to say that you should not even attempt to win this pot because it is so small. your hand is very weak and you are out of position. if you bet out and get called you still have no way of knowing if you have the best hand or if you can win through agression. if you check raise Ax will call you down also. so look for a better spot with J10. only 3 players (one was the BB) to the flop, why bother?

[beset7]

I've got a stupid question.

Why not check-raise the turn for information? That way if a scare card comes on the river you might steal the pot (it's 3/6 i know, unlikely). Conversely, if the villan 3-bets it you know where you stand instead of having absolutely no solid read on your opponents holdings. I know you said that villan was tight/passive, which in my (albeit omaha/stud ridden) mind would might an information gathering check-raise even more worthwhile. Size of the pot might rule this out but this was my first reaction to the turn check-call. Just a thought.

[ThaSaltCracka]

[ QUOTE ]
everyone missed my point entirely! i was trying to say that you should not even attempt to win this pot because it is so small. your hand is very weak and you are out of position. if you bet out and get called you still have no way of knowing if you have the best hand or if you can win through agression. if you check raise Ax will call you down also. so look for a better spot with J10. only 3 players (one was the BB) to the flop, why bother?

[/ QUOTE ] thank you Cpt. Redundant.

[dantheman_05]

well everyone was looking at my post in the wrong way i wanted to be clear, besides whats up with the attitude?? try showing a little class!

[ThaSaltCracka]

[ QUOTE ]
well everyone was looking at my post in the wrong way i wanted to be clear, besides whats up with the attitude?? try showing a little class!

[/ QUOTE ]LMAO.

[StellarWind]

If you check and someone bets you almost certainly are losing. If you really have the best hand here you will likely get the free card. You may well get a free card from a better hand, especially a better jack.

It's unlikely that a tight/passive can be bet off a better hand. As a group they are not folders. It's important to dial back the aggression against this player type. Their primary weakness is they don't bet their good hands enough. That won't matter if you do it for them.

[StellarWind]

[ QUOTE ]
everyone missed my point entirely!

[/ QUOTE ]
I believe you will find that my last response to you covered your issues. Checking the flop is bad regardless of how you follow it up. Your "very weak" hand is actually well above average for this situation. You have a decent chance of having the best hand, you have outs, and you have the initiative if you take it. That's about all a poker player can ask for. Go play poker.

[Schizo]

[ QUOTE ]
Your "very weak" hand is actually well above average for this situation.

[/ QUOTE ]

What is the average best hand for this situation? Where can I go to find this stuff out? Is playing w/ pokerstove pretty much the only way? If so what settings should I use?

[adamstewart]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Your "very weak" hand is actually well above average for this situation.

[/ QUOTE ]

What is the average best hand for this situation? Where can I go to find this stuff out? Is playing w/ pokerstove pretty much the only way? If so what settings should I use?

[/ QUOTE ]

In all serioiusness, the best way to figure these things out is through experience.

Also, read these forums and post questions/examples of your own.

Adam

[StellarWind]

[ QUOTE ]
What is the average best hand for this situation? Where can I go to find this stuff out? Is playing w/ pokerstove pretty much the only way? If so what settings should I use?

[/ QUOTE ]
I'm not aware of any tool that does this sort of computation. Sounds like a useful thing for someone to do.

If you want to figure it out, the correct procedure is to write down all possible starting hands made out of the 49 other cards and rank them in order based on the hands they make with this flop.

As a practical matter, realize that only about 35% of all starting hands will succeed in making a pair with an unpaired flop. Even when you consider pocket pairs, it's fairly likely that our pair of jacks is the only pair.

Now consider that we beat all nines, outkick most other jacks, and beat most pocket pairs. That leaves us ahead of about 85% of random hands. That's not exact and further practical adjustments are required because aces are popular preflop (bad for us) but many hands that beat us are common PFRs (good for us).

The practical point is we flopped someplace in the top 1/5 of all hands with a good set of outs and strong backdoors. Anyone who insists on more before taking on two limpers is going to be stolen blind. I would normally bet a nine in this situation.

Just be prepared to get away from your hand if it isn't working. This deal is a good example. I don't need proof I have the best hand to attack. I also don't need proof that I'm beat to dump the hand. The pot is small.

[Schizo]

[ QUOTE ]
I would normally bet a nine in this situation.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hero is under the gun, so I'm guessing you won't have a nine unless it's 6-8 players to the average flop. At that point, given that 35% of all starting hands will succeed in making a pair with an unpaired flop, somebody else will have a pair. I'm guessing you wouldn't bet in this 6-8 situation.

Now, say you were in the BB, and you were given 92o and this flop came out, against these players. Would you bet the 9 again? If so, would you bet the turn?

As always, I enjoy your posts.

[StellarWind]

[ QUOTE ]
Hero is under the gun

[/ QUOTE ]
Actually ...

[ QUOTE ]
Hero is BB with T /images/graemlins/club.gif, J /images/graemlins/club.gif.

[/ QUOTE ]
Yes I would bet 92o most of the time against two limpers and especially this time.

1. These opponents are good enough to dump a hand like TT or 98s.

2. The poster really cuts down the ace risk because he has a truly random hand.

3. It's easy to sneer at the deuce but it's probably cleaner than a "good" kicker would be. It's far from the limper's play zone and it won't make a straight.

4. I don't expect to be raised very often or by a worse hand. I'll get my card.

If both call and the turn disappoints I'll walk away. If one player folds I may fire another barrel. Against a tight/passive however I'd probably try for an undeserved free card by checkfolding. There aren't many calling hands for him on this flop that I beat and usually a bet means I'm facing at least an ace.

Even one more opponent and I become a good boy and start behaving myself. But shorthanded pots are governed by different mathematics than multiway pots. That's why so many decent full-ring players get slaughtered shorthanded.

[Schizo]

[ QUOTE ]
The poster really cuts down the ace risk because he has a truly random hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

1) Ace risk??? Wouldn't you wan't an ace? Or does that just make it easier to get trapped?

[ QUOTE ]
It's easy to sneer at the deuce but it's probably cleaner than a "good" kicker would be. It's far from the limper's play zone and it won't make a straight.

[/ QUOTE ]

2) Why is this a bad thing? Straights are good? Sure you might split it, but I would thing it would have higher equity.

[ QUOTE ]
I don't expect to be raised very often or by a worse hand. I'll get my card.


[/ QUOTE ]

3) You mean get to see the turn right?

[ QUOTE ]
Even one more opponent and I become a good boy and start behaving myself. But shorthanded pots are governed by different mathematics than multiway pots. That's why so many decent full-ring players get slaughtered shorthanded.

[/ QUOTE ]

4) You've just piqued my interest in SH games. But this table is 9 handed, why would you play this like it's short handed? Just because 3 saw the flop? The people still have the same starting hands.


5) Also, I plugged in the starting hands minus only a few mandatory raises to account for their passive nature and got this. The numbers don't look very good for you. Am I way off base, or is this a leak?


150,707,088 games 52.203 secs 2,886,943 games/sec

Board: 9c Ad Jh
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)

Hand 1: 21.3899 % [ 00.21 00.00 ] { 92o }
Hand 2: 42.0368 % [ 00.41 00.01 ] { QQ-77, AJs-ATs, KQs-KTs, QJs-QTs, JTs, AQo-AJo, KQo, QJo }
Hand 3: 36.5732 % [ 00.35 00.01 ] { AA-22, AKs-A2s, KQs-K9s, QJs-Q9s, JTs-J9s, T9s, 98s, 87s, 76s, 65s, AKo-ATo, KQo-KTo, QJo-QTo, JTo }


---

[StellarWind]

#1: By "ace risk" I meant the risk that someone else limped with an ace. It's the primary danger of betting with 92o. A poster is much less likely to have an ace than a limper.

#2: When I say the deuce won't make a straight, I mean that if I make two pair it won't give my opponent a straight. If I had T9o and picked up a ten on the turn my two pair could easily lose to a straight because the board would be AJT9. Two pair is more likely to stand up on a board of AJ92.

#3: Yes, I expect to be able to see the turn for one bet. If you bet 92o and someone raises you need to fold. So it's good that these players won't do that very often.

#4: When only three people see the flop the best hand is going to be a lot weaker on average than when six people see the flop. A pair with outs is a pretty decent hand.

#5: Your assumptions are brutal. I wish I could have a hand range like Hand 3 when I posted in Cutoff. Then you assumed Cutoff would never raise preflop (even AA) despite a nearly ideal seat for doing so.

[Schizo]

[ QUOTE ]
#1: By "ace risk" I meant the risk that someone else limped with an ace. It's the primary danger of betting with 92o. A poster is much less likely to have an ace than a limper.

[/ QUOTE ]

Basically, your only fear is being dominated, correct?

[ QUOTE ]
#5: Your assumptions are brutal. I wish I could have a hand range like Hand 3 when I posted in Cutoff. Then you assumed Cutoff would never raise preflop (even AA) despite a nearly ideal seat for doing so.

[/ QUOTE ]

I adjusted it, this is what I meant to do before. Looks like pokerstove has a bug in it when you select all broadway and press shift to unselect a few of them. It doesn't seem to work. Is this reasonable? I selected all of the starting hands and subtracted a few raising hands to account for their low aggro #'s. They have low VPIP, but I didn't cut any off of the low end. Again, I can't express my gratitude enough.


81,511,101 games 44.453 secs 1,833,646 games/sec

Board: 9c Ad Jh
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)

Hand 1: 27.7381 % [ 00.27 00.00 ] { 92o }
Hand 2: 37.0073 % [ 00.36 00.01 ] { JJ-77, AJs-ATs, KQs-KTs, QJs-QTs, JTs, KQo }
Hand 3: 35.2545 % [ 00.34 00.01 ] { JJ-22, ATs-A2s, KJs-KTs, QJs-QTs, JTs, T9s, 98s, 87s, 76s, 65s, 54s, AJo-ATo, KQo-KTo, QJo-QTo, JTo }