10/20 Top set, river action?

[DrGutshot]

CO here is not bad, from the ~70 hands i have on him he is about 30/15, postflop aggression has yet to be seen, but the numbers say he is around 1 AF-total.

I have been playing typical taggish style and haven't gone to many showdowns with him.

What hands do you put him on, and do you 3bet this river prepared to call a cap?

Party Poker 10/20 Hold'em (6 max, 6 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: DrG is SB with Q/images/graemlins/club.gif, Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
UTG folds, MP folds, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises</font>, Button folds, <font color="#CC3333">DrG 3-bets</font>, BB folds, CO calls.

Flop: (7 SB) 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">DrG bets</font>, CO calls.

Turn: (4.50 BB) 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">DrG bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">DrG 3-bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">CO caps</font>, DrG calls.

River: (12.50 BB) A/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">DrG bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises</font>, DrG............................???


Thanks,
-DrG

[Danenania]

I would 3-bet. I put him squarely on 88.

[Scotch78]

I 3-bet it and hope he has the balls to cap with his set of eights. Even with so few hands on him, 30/15 is a far cry from raising pre-flop with 97s or 75s. So on the river, I'd only be worried about AA, but this would be an unusual and laggy line for it. Since you hadn't seen much postflop aggression yet, I'd say he either has 88 or is one of those people who doesn't understand how hand values change on the flop and thinks AA is gold no matter what hits the board. I'm certainly willing to take a 50-50 bet that it's the former.

Scott

[Jeff W]

I put him on:

AA, 66, 55, 88, 97s

Against that line-up, you're a 56% favorite. I think he probably has some other hands that you also beat in his range. I'd estimate that you're 60% to win.

3-bet. Do not fold to a 4-bet.

[sthief09]

2 comments:
- he's not really 56% to win, because I doubt that many 30/15's raise 97s from the CO, so that should be significantly discounted
- if he was 60% to win, that's not enough. when he wins, he gains 1 bet, but when he loses he loses 2 bets, so he has to be good 67% of the time to 3-bet, which I believe to be the case. it looks like set over set

[Scotch78]

One the river you only need to be ahead 55% of the time to protect against a raise.

Scott

[sthief09]

I think your number is just taken straight from HPFAP, which is a fudged number, for the amount of time you have to be ahead to value bet when checked to on the river

betting with the possibility of getting raised costs you 2 when behind and makes you 1 when ahead, so you have to be ahead 2/3 to make the best. if he's beating you he has the nuts, I doubt he won't cap. he might cap 88 which maybe makes it slightly better.

[Jeff W]

[ QUOTE ]
2 comments:
- he's not really 56% to win, because I doubt that many 30/15's raise 97s from the CO, so that should be significantly discounted
- if he was 60% to win, that's not enough. when he wins, he gains 1 bet, but when he loses he loses 2 bets, so he has to be good 67% of the time to 3-bet, which I believe to be the case. it looks like set over set

[/ QUOTE ]

My advice to 3-bet is wrong if AA is weighted more heavily than 88,66,55 and/or he will not cap hands that are beat. I'm aware of the problem you mentioned about losing 2 bets vs. winning 1, but it doesn't apply if his opponent will cap sets besides AAA because he will always win or lose 2 bets.

If you don't include 97s in his hand range and don't weight AA, he is a 75% favorite to win. Obviously you can weight AA however you think appropriate to make him anywhere from 75% equity to 0% equity.

Edit: Typed 65% favorite instead of 75%.

[Scotch78]

[ QUOTE ]
for the amount of time you have to be ahead to value bet when checked to on the river

[/ QUOTE ]

Crap, I think you're right on that one. Time to reread HP.

Scott

[sthief09]

I don't feel like doing the whole number crunching thing I usually like to do, but I have a strong feeling that 3-betting is correct. I'm reading him for 55, 66, or 88. AA and 97s should be discounted significantly

[chezlaw]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't feel like doing the whole number crunching thing I usually like to do, but I have a strong feeling that 3-betting is correct. I'm reading him for 55, 66, or 88. AA and 97s should be discounted significantly

[/ QUOTE ]

and if you don't discount AA then KK must be possible as well.

[sthief09]

since when does KK raise that river?

[chezlaw]

[ QUOTE ]
since when does KK raise that river?

[/ QUOTE ]

when it caps the turn?

I'm not suggesting they may have KK but agreeing that you should discount aces. Against a sane player you discount aces so if you dont and therefore they are not sane then why think their river play will be.

[kiddo]

30/15 would cap AA preflop and not cap turn with AA, so I would put him on a flopped set. Reraise river!

You will sometimes lose to 97 and AA, but not often enough.

[ggbman]

Not raising this river would be way too tight, raise and call a 3 bet, i think a smaller flopped set is possible.

[DrGutshot]

Hey guys -

I just called, and lost to AA

after rereading my hand immediatly after I played it, I realized that I probably should have 3bet the river. I posted to make sure that that wouldn't have been out of line.

thanks for the replies all,
-DrG