large slick against a good player

[arkady]

Villain in this hand is a good player and has VERY tight raising standards. The reason I am posting this is because the guy is capable of folding. I had him on QQ, with slight possibility of AA, until the river came. Does anyone take my line knowing that there is a good chance of QQ and not wanting to scare? Or do you pop the flop anyway?


Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (10 handed)
converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with A/images/graemlins/heart.gif, K/images/graemlins/spade.gif. MP2 posts a blind of $5.
UTG folds, UTG+1 folds, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+2 raises</font>, MP1 folds, MP2 (poster) calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, CO folds, Button folds, SB calls, BB folds, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+2 caps</font>, MP2 folds, Hero calls, SB calls.

Flop: (15 SB) K/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 4/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+2 bets</font>, Hero calls, SB calls.

Turn: (9 BB) 2/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+2 bets</font>, Hero calls, SB folds.

River: (11 BB) A/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
UTG+2 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, UTG+2 calls.

Final Pot: 13 BB

[cold_cash]

I think you need to decide when your best chance of knocking the SB out is and raise then.

I would probably call the flop and raise the turn. If the pot is 10 big bets, I really don't care if they both fold.

I'd be willing to exchange the extra bet I might win from UTG+2 on the river to eliminate the chance of the SB sucking out.

[sfer]

I play it the same. I used to raise the flop but these days I'm more concerned about UTG+2 than the SB. The SB is usually drawing to 3 outs here.

[PokerBob]

If he has AA, good for him. He could have AK as well, and you have the nut flush redraw. Raise this flop 100% of the time. If he 3-bets, I cap. If he leads the turn, I slow down.

[Bob T.]

In a three handed pot, I don't like waiting until later streets to raise.

In this pot, with the Ace of hearts in your hand, I think you can safely raise the turn because you might be ahead and if not, you have a fair number of outs, depending on what hand you are behind. If you don't improve, you have the option of checking behind, because you may have overrepresented your hand on the turn. But I think betting the river if you aren't reraised on the turn is probably best.

[PokerBob]

[ QUOTE ]
I play it the same. I used to raise the flop but these days I'm more concerned about UTG+2 than the SB. The SB is usually drawing to 3 outs here.

[/ QUOTE ]

If the SB called 2.5 bets cold, what do you give him credit for? A crappy Ace? A pp? Suited connectors? Just curious, as this is something I struggle with, and probably why I raise this flop. Am I losing money by not waiting until the turn to raise this hand?

[Bob T.]

Don't worry about the SB, he is drawing to either two or three outs here. All he did so far, is call, and Clarkmeister says, if they only call, you don't worry about them. Even if they call a whole bunch of bets cold. In this case, I would guess that he won't let go of any PP preflop, and then in a largish pot decided to take one off.

[StellarWind]

The first thing to realize is UTG+2 has adequate implied odds to call the flop with two outs. That makes a flop fold in response to your raise both unlikely and not especially bad for you. Also keep in mind that 50% of his potential ladies include Q /images/graemlins/heart.gif which would absolutely lock him into seeing the turn.

I would raise the flop to apply maximum pressure to SB's 2-3 outer. If he pays that's great and if he dumps his outs I like that too.

Suppose UTG+2 has QQ and SB has 88. Giving the snowmen a cheap turn is a serious error. When SB hits that set he will take 4 BB off you on the big streets plus another couple BB you would have won from UTG+2. The implied odds on his 2-outer for 1 SB are about 30-1. Obviously giving a cheap card to an ace is even worse.

You are also getting better odds from UTG+2 on a flop raise compared to a turn raise. You only beat 6 of 10 possible AA-QQ hands. If this were heads up I wouldn't even bother raising at all unless I picked up the flush draw on the turn. There is simply no value when you can easily be reraised. Waiting until the turn to raise hurts your odds because he may stop betting with queens but will always continue with aces/kings.

[arkady]

2 outers have a 15-1 shot against catching and according to bison's dandy converter, looks like they are getting exactly the right price. well holy crap, hehe.

another interesting aspect of the hand is that if I get raised by utg+2, i know I am drawing thin with the rare exception that he sometimes can also be holding AKs

[arkady]

i think Clark is right in general, but I can reflect on hundreds of hands where ignoring the cold caller (who later comes to life) a very dangerous proposition.

[arkady]

i am really not giving him credit for anything, honestly until I closely looked at the pot size, I didnt want him folding. Guess you miss how fast the pot grows after its capped PF /images/graemlins/smile.gif