3rd nuts on the flop

[PrayingMantis]

The converter doesn't work for me now, so here goes:

Second level of a $109, about 250 entrants, ~220 in. Blinds 15/30, I'm SB w/1760, about avarage. Pretty loose table so far.

UTG (1000) and UTG+1 (2800) limp. I complete with Q /images/graemlins/diamond.gif2 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif. BB checks.

Flop: T /images/graemlins/diamond.gif 4 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif J /images/graemlins/diamond.gif POT: 120.

I check. BB (1500) minibets 30. UTG raises to 120. UTG+1 folds and I reraise to 390.

BB pushes. UTG folds.

Your thoughts?

[weevil]

If it's a loose table and the BB is similiarly loose, you make the call. He's probably got a or k of diamonds with maybe the jack or some other draw. He probably thinks his draw is better than anyone elses and wants to take it there, not get callers.

[sloth469]

Tough one. To be honest with you I see a set or two pair or even ajo w/ the ace of diamonds too often to not go broke if he has the higher flush. While I might not really want to, (and I'd exhaust my time bank) I'm going to war with this hand 90% of the time (is this a leak in my game?).

-sloth

[HoldingFolding]

UGLY! What can you realistically put BB on? Two more diamonds is pretty unlikely, surely a set (TT or JJ) would have been raised preflop. He wants to gamble - I would expect to see a single diamond here - the A or K. I think AJo would have raised.

[remen]

I would call every time here with little hesitation. There are too many hands you beat that the BB would play this way. A lower flush, a set, two pair, and the A /images/graemlins/diamond.gif with a pair all could have played this hand the way the villain did. I think the most likely hand for the villain to hold is a lower flush than yours.

Another thing to consider is that the villain probably would't play the nut flush/second nut flush this way and would try to get more action by smooth-calling your raise. He is betting more consistant with that of a hand that wishes to push draws out, why would the nut/second nut flush do this?

[vicpanic]

Ive put a lot of thought into situations like this and i think the right move for a tournament, espically so early in a tournament is to flat call on the flop.(putting him on A /images/graemlins/diamond.gif), and if no diamond peels off on the turn reraise him then.

This way you dont commit a lot of chips and have an easy fold if you feel your beat if a 4th diamond comes off.

[PrayingMantis]

OK, thoughts and results:

FWIW, I thought it was a rather easy call when it happened. It was definitely enough +EV in my mind. The only hand I feard BB holds was K /images/graemlins/diamond.gif X /images/graemlins/diamond.gif. There are only 6 combinations for this. I didn't see him pushing like this with the nuts (i.e, A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif X /images/graemlins/diamond.gif).

So there's actually a rather wide range of hands I'm very much ahead of here: all sorts of flush combinations (not too many, of course), which are practically drawing dead against me, plus some sets (44, maybe TT, JJ is not very probable) and two pairs maybe. His minimum leading bet, then RR all-in looked like a strong hand (post-oak bluff, then reraising himself) but one that is somewhat vulnerable, that's why I didn't put him on TP or something. I think there's too much action for him on this dangarous flop to think his hand is really that good in this spot.

I think this is an interesting hand, because if it was UTG or UTG+1 pushing, it makes it much less +EV for me to call, IMO. That's because there's much smaller chance for all sorts of garbage flush combinations, and the chance for K /images/graemlins/diamond.gif X /images/graemlins/diamond.gif is significantly bigger than from the BB (=random hand).

Another interesting aspect (that makes my call a little less +EV), is that the T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif and the J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif are both on the board. That's because people will be a bit more willing to go far with a T or J high when they're in the hole, than with a flush with lower cards. But still, I thought there's good enough chance he's on any kind of flush, although the K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif X/images/graemlins/diamond.gif was a valid option.

Anyway, I called, he showed K /images/graemlins/diamond.gif 6 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif, and I was drawing for the runner-runner Q-high straight flush, which hits pretty often.