LP cold call AXs vs. LAG = 29.50 BB

[playersare]

Hero - VP$IP 24.39, PFR 8.54
MP3 - VP$IP 55.18, PFR 11.63, table coach, fishbowl tapper
SB - VP$IP 51.06, PFR -0-, W$SD 27%

ok to cold call? post flop?

Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is CO with 4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
UTG folds, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls, MP1 folds, MP2 folds, <font color="#CC3333">MP3 raises</font>, Hero calls, Button folds, SB calls, BB folds, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls.

Flop: (11 SB) 9/images/graemlins/club.gif, 3/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 6/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
SB checks, UTG+1 checks, UTG+2 checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP3 bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB 3-bets</font>, UTG+1 folds, UTG+2 folds, MP3 calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero caps</font>, SB calls, MP3 calls.

Turn: (11.50 BB) J/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP3 bets</font>, Hero calls, <font color="#CC3333">SB raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP3 3-bets</font>, Hero calls, <font color="#CC3333">SB caps</font>, MP3 calls, Hero calls.

River: (23.50 BB) 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, MP3 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB raises</font>, MP3 calls, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 29.50 BB

(don't worry I made it all back...)

[Shillx]

I like to have another caller to make this call preflop. Flop cap is okay given that you can take a free one. Bad river card, but there is nothing you can do. It is really hard to check behind in that spot, but you made the right play by not 3-betting the river.

Brad

[Aaron W.]

[ QUOTE ]
ok to cold call?

[/ QUOTE ]

I might have let it go, but I don't think it's bad. I would have liked a better kicker (say A8s)

[ QUOTE ]

Flop: (11 SB) 9/images/graemlins/club.gif, 3/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 6/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
SB checks, UTG+1 checks, UTG+2 checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP3 bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>...

[/ QUOTE ]

This is a bad bad raise and I think you should consider yourself fortunate that SB had plans on this hand. I would just call because a raise shuts everyone else out of the hand (well... usually) by forcing them to call two bets cold.

SB pulled a trifecta on you... how embarassing. Since his numbers look so fishy, I would have checked that river with the board pairing. I think his flop check-3-bet and turn check-raise-cap makes for a solid set indicator.

[playersare]

SB lost the hand too. MP3 nailed pocket JJ to SB's 66.

[DMBFan23]

I'm not sure if I'd call the flop raise THAT bad. our ace is good x percent of the time. I would like to increase x. I may get a free card. maybe they all coldcall, and I get equity.

however, Joe Tall replied to a post of mine saying essentially what you are saying, that the money from building the pot for your draw is more desirable than cleaning up outs and possibly getting a free card and you should just call. someone bust out SSH and lay down the law here.

[Aaron W.]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm not sure if I'd call the flop raise THAT bad. our ace is good x percent of the time. I would like to increase x. I may get a free card. maybe they all coldcall, and I get equity.

[/ QUOTE ]

I strongly favor just calling because LAG isn't crazy LAG. 12% PFR can be a lot of things, but it's not as if he's raising every hand. I don't know how much I really believe that an ace high is good here, and I seriously doubt it's nearly often enough to offset the money you lose by not having lots of contributions from other players. Even if he raised some other Ax, odds are he has you beat! You're most likely chasing and need to hit an out to improve. Also, you open yourself up to an expensive 3-bet and turn bet with a hand which very likely needs to improve (1-x of the time, in fact).

Cleaning up outs? Maybe... But I'm against this because you're only clearing up your ace outs (meaning a 2-outer if you actually do clean it up). With two overs, cleaning up your pair outs is more meaningful. With two overs and the condition that hitting your pair will likely bring an added draw, cleaning up outs is very important.

[DMBFan23]

"With two overs and the condition that hitting your pair will likely bring an added draw, cleaning up outs is very important."

word to that.

[DMBFan23]

this is obviously a topic that interests me, since I find myself posting in these flush draw posts a lot. After hearing a lot of the different points, I think SSHE's "Protecting draws and buying outs section (pgs 158-160) are pretty relevant, and I think I'm gonna keep making the raise. I really like your point though that it's more important to buy outs if you have two overcards.

[bonanz]

[ QUOTE ]
Hero - VP$IP 24.39, PFR 8.54

[/ QUOTE ]

did anyone notice that?

[playersare]

just the groupies who keep following me around.

(it's called a single session)

[bonanz]

welcome to the microlimit forums where i hang out.

nobody's following you around and not many people post their own *session* vpip when they post a hand, or if they do they make note that it's for the session and have a reason for posting it like to point out how good/bad they are running in a session.

If that was your overall vpip that's probably a problem. That's all I was saying. relax

[playersare]

apologies my friend. my hatchet is buried

my first time here and you're right I should have posted overall VPIP if anything, session was irrevalant. I am a confessed recovering 25+%er but PT has me confirmed in the 18 range now.

was probably more loose with AXs and weak offsuit bways here due to opportunities from MP3 and also UTG+1 (77.29, 18.07) who raised ire from MP3 all session but did eventually bust out.

MP3 didn't hold on to his 20BB profit either.

[AngelicPenguin]

Was MP3 hoping you'd raise the river? Seems odd he didn't 3-bet.

[Aaron W.]

[ QUOTE ]
this is obviously a topic that interests me, since I find myself posting in these flush draw posts a lot. After hearing a lot of the different points, I think SSHE's "Protecting draws and buying outs section (pgs 158-160) are pretty relevant, and I think I'm gonna keep making the raise. I really like your point though that it's more important to buy outs if you have two overcards.

[/ QUOTE ]

After thinking about it some more, I'm beginning to suspect that the raise is actually much worse than calling. I don't know if I'll have time to do it, but I would suggest that you run some twodimes or pokerstove simulations to try to get a sense of what your equity edge on the flop looks like when it's heads up compared to when it's 3 or 4 handed (including when you've succeeded in cleaning up an out). From there, I think you can figure out about how much EV you're getting from each play by playing out the hand mentally.

[playersare]

yeah I think because SB capped the turn even though MP3 nailed his two outer, he was worried about quad 9's.

[Piiop]

Your preflop coldcall is bad. You have terrible relative position acting directly after the LAG and your A4s is not a strong hand.

The flop raise is pretty bad too since I don't think you're very likely to get a free card and you're shutting out players who you want in on your draw.

[davelin]

[ QUOTE ]
Your preflop coldcall is bad. You have terrible relative position acting directly after the LAG and your A4s is not a strong hand.

The flop raise is pretty bad too since I don't think you're very likely to get a free card and you're shutting out players who you want in on your draw.

[/ QUOTE ]

What about cleaning out Ace outs? In SSH it says that when the pot is large (and according to Ed's definition this is) then raising to increase the % of times you win can be profitable.

"Do not play passively with strong hands and draws to keep your customers" - pg 166

[Piiop]

The only time this would be worth it is if A3 and A6 were in the hand and they folded to the raise. I really doubt A9 is folding. Raising increases your chance of winning here very close to 0% of the time.

[Piiop]

Ugh, sorry Davelin. My first response to your post wasn't right and it's too late too edit. I was focused only on thinking that you meant getting A9/A6/A3 to fold when if any other ace to folded it would also be great for the Hero.

Of course, it's very unlikely A9 is folding, fairly unlikely A6/A3 is folding, and possible AT or higher calls 2 cold anyway - especially the PFR LAG who is seeing the river or the loose SB who will probably see the turn with two overs. Still, the raise does have some merit, but I think the value you get from the callers outweighs the amount of times you get a better Ace to fold. (I haven't proved this mathematically and if anyone wants to work it out, I would be happy to be proved wrong.)

This whole situation could've been avoided by folding preflop. This exact situation is what makes the Hero's relative position so terrible.

[davelin]

I agree that Hero's position relative to the pre-flop raiser makes this a little more difficult to play with no one trapped in the middle for additional bets when Hero hits.

You're probably right, the math would probably show that going for overcalls on the flop is more +EV. But I do think that A6 and A3 may fold here, as well as possibly A7 or A8.

Is going for overcalls better? Probably. Is raising here all that bad? I don't think so.

[crockett]

I'd be will to bet money that Ed Miller would say that the flop raise is an absolute no brainer.

There are SO MANY hands you could fold out that cost you this big pot if an A falls or doesn't fall for that matter.

AJ,AT,A8,A7,A6(maybe),A5,A4o,A3(maybe),A2,22,44,55 ,77,88,T8 and the list does continue, these are just some of the typical low limit holdings not to mention the odd ball 47o, non raised AQ, AK (I see it all the time) and more but I'll stop there.

Your more than welcoming come alongs because you have a good draw, nut flush, backdoor str8 and the added possibility you win this when you spike your A or win with A high.

There has been ONE lousy bet so far and it is coming from the PFR, most likely he is on over cards.

I think anyone who says this raise is incorrect is being results orienated.

[Aaron W.]

[ QUOTE ]
I'd be will to bet money that Ed Miller would say that the flop raise is an absolute no brainer.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's a winning bet... and I withdraw my previous concerns and objections.

My concerns revolved around the realized benefits of 'cleaning up outs' in terms of cleaning up your ace outs. Mostly, I felt that the reasonable liklihood of being dominated by PFR would offset any benefits of raising.

However, a more thorough analysis shows that this simply is not the case. I neglected to consider one important fact: If Hero is dominated, then pairing his kicker is likely to beat PFR. Therefore, cleaning up overcards to his *kicker* is beneficial. So my objection that a raise only cleans up a two outer is false. There are many overcards to the 4 kicker. (Not to mention folding out the medium pairs, consideration of the pot size, counting the striaght draws...)

I was so fixed on the ace (because of the preflop coldcall) that I didn't give full consideration to other aspects of the hand. This is such an easy raise... how embarassing /images/graemlins/crazy.gif