JJ vs an allin

[Beavis68]

This is a repost from a different site, I was not in this hand but would like to test my ideas.

SnG $100 buy-in.Top 3 makes money.
Down to 5 players. <font color="red"> Me SB with 2400 chips</font> , BB with 1350,
UTG 4800, <font color="blue">UTG+1 550</font>, button 850.
Blinds are 150/300.
UTG goes all in. <font color="blue">UTG+1 folds </font>, button folds.
I have JJ. What is the play?
Note UTG (big stack) have gone all in few times and evrybody folded.

[willperkins]

Depends on your goal. Do you want to make the money or try to win the tourney. If you want to make the money then fold. If you want to try and win the tourney then push.

If it was me, I would push because I would rather have a better chance to win than finish 3rd.

I base my decision to push on what you said about his earlier play. I would say it is much more probable that he is either bluffing or has a worse hand than JJ.

If he has AA, KK or QQ you are in trouble. Other than that you are the favorite.



At least that is what I would do.

[Beavis68]

This is poker, I want to make the move that makes the most money over the long run.

[goldseraph]

While I agree you have to be aggressive to win, there are two guys under 1000 who are on the chopping block. Perhaps I am too passive but I generally wait until the final 3 or perhaps 4 to start putting all my chips in. Even if he has AK, AQ, KQ you have a serious chance of busting out. If he has QQ, KK, AA you are screwed. I would fold my 150 blind and wait for a better situation to arise.

[Gramps]

From your description of UTG, sounds like he's going to continue to use his stack to bully people around. That means two things:

(1) He's (in all likelihood) pushing a wide range of hands against which JJ is a big favorite (probably &gt; 2 to 1) against.

(2) If you fold, this bullying is going to continue. With 4 players, left, you have to wait for two to get knocked out before you're in the money. Short stacks do win all-in confrontations, and 450 chips per orbit (or 600 per orbit at 200/400) will eat at your stack in a hurry. That means there's a very strong chance that you're going to get chippped down pretty good before it gets down to three (that's assuming you make the money, which won't happen sometimes). Since some of the shorter stacks will be going all-in and increasing their stack (stealing or showdown), you'll have lost your chip edge on the other "short" stack a lot of the time that you do make it to top-3.

You do have the benefit that the big stack is not on your immediate right, so you'll have some opportunities to push acting first (the big stack is unlikely to call your all-in without a strong hand). If the big stack was immediately to your right instead of your left, that would make things even more difficult if you folded your JJ. So...that counterweights things a bit.

However, also note that of the times you win, you're the one that'll be able to turn the tables and start bullying people around (especially when the blinds escalate to 200/400). Even though the big stack will still have 2400 in chips if you call and he loses, he's not going to want to call your subsequent pushes (and jeopardize his top-3 finish) - which means you can steal from him/through him the majority of the time. That means you'll be able to build your stack up well above 5,000 much of the time your JJ holds up, giving you an even greater shot at getting 1st.

I'd call his arse. If you lose, oh well. This would me a much more difficult decision if it were down to 4 players (with the given stack sizes).

[PrayingMantis]

[ QUOTE ]
Note UTG (big stack) have gone all in few times and evrybody folded.


[/ QUOTE ]

I'm basically putting UTG here on T8o. So I'm calling this before he even realizes he's going to push. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[Myst]

Easiest call in the world to make. And I hope you see why.

[Irieguy]

[ QUOTE ]
So I'm calling this before he even realizes he's going to push. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

PM's absolutely correct. You can call without thinking about it, but if you want to think about it, here's why you end up calling:

Of the hands he'll push with there's 18 hand combos that dominate you and 48 that you race with. There's easily 200 combos he'll push with that you are way ahead of, 78 of which you dominate.

You don't get many chances in poker to be that far ahead that often for that many chips when it matters that much.

The difference between calling and folding is the difference between somebody who beats the $100 SNGs and somebody that doesn't.

Irieguy

[obeythekitten]

the buyin shouldnt have any effect on how you play the hand (unless you KNOW someone is playing out of their league), and i seriously doubt you would be asking this question if it was a $10 sng.

you have no reason at all not to call him here.

[Beavis68]

Thanks, I actually totally agree that calling is the right answer, this was posted on another forum and there was an argument over it.

Irieguy, I pretty much did the calcs you did.