confidence problems

[housenuts]

I've played about 4,000 PT recorded hands of limit hold 'em (2/4 - 5/10). For about my first 2,000 I couldn't have a losing session. I was on fire and everything seemed to be going my way. I was very happy and foresaw a good future for me and limit hold 'em. I will admit it seemed like I was getting better than average cards.

For the last 2,000 hands I've been on a downward slide and it seems like I can't pull off a winning session. During this streak I've had some alright cards but they seem to be beat by either better cards, or getting outdrawn.

Now I'm at a loss. I don't know if I'm doing something horribly wrong or if this is all just part of the ups and downs. It seems to come down to a few big pots that I've been losing a lot of lately.

I don't know what to do other than just hang in there and see if it turns around. Maybe I should take a break for a little while. I don't know. Here's my aggression factor. Anything noticeably bad about it?

http://members.shaw.ca/chowder/af.jpg


what is the normal standard deviation for a particular level?

here's mine:
2/4 - $74/100 hands through 881 hands
3/6 - $87/100 through 2,075
5/10 - $147/100 through 1,218

Thanks.

[StellarWind]

Your sample size is trivial. I have nothing else to say about your win rate.

My 2/4 SD is about 14 BB/100. Note that standard deviation does not enjoy some magical exemption from the sample size problems that affect all poker stats. It's just another statistic derived from your playing results. Your sample is too small to establish confidence in your real SD.

You are too passive on the flop and then you explode on the turn. Play your flops faster and stop slowrolling so many hands until the turn. Bet most of the flops you know you will want to call. There are reasons to checkcall a potential best hand but most of the time you are better off assuming the initiative and betting out yourself. Most good draws are also worth betting.