100NL Turn semibluff

[Seether]

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $2 BB (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

CO ($184.2)
Button ($45.1)
SB ($73)
Hero ($108.8)
UTG ($100)
UTG+1 ($218.7)
MP1 ($94.95)
MP2 ($100)
MP3 ($308.28)

Preflop: Hero is BB with Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif. MP2 posts a blind of $2.
UTG calls $2, UTG+1 folds, MP1 calls $2, MP2 (poster) checks, MP3 folds, CO folds, Button folds, SB completes, Hero checks.

Flop: ($10) K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 2/images/graemlins/club.gif, 7/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
SB checks, Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG bets $7</font>, MP1 folds, MP2 folds, SB folds, Hero calls $7.

Turn: ($24) T/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG bets $15</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $40</font>, UTG.......


What are your opinions? Is this too reckless being out of position? Should I fire a bluff if I miss on the river?

[warlockjd]

edit) I like the play and I like firing on the river when I miss. I am not convinced this is the best place for it tho. Personally, I use this very sparingly and usually when the $ are way deeper. Your pot equity is huge. A set will put you all in here, but I think you must call.

[bobman0330]

Seems like something of a small bet? I think a semibluff is close to mandatory, since he probably has a one-pair hand he's not going to be comfortable putting a lot of money in with. With your raise, he's calling $25 into an $80 pot, which, unless he's suspicious, is going to be hard for him to fold. You get about two thirds of your bluffing money back if things go sour, so be extravagant

[Piz0wn0reD!!!!!!]

Semibluffing the flop would be far more ideal here. For 1 you have a beter chance of hitting w/ 2 cards still to come. Also if you semibluff the flop you may get a free card on the turn, improving your chances of winning and reducing the cost to draw.

Since you just called, which is ok too, you should just call the turn. Sure you have tons of outs, but you are still a dog. Call the turn, get your money in on the river when you hit.

[Seether]

If he calls the turn do you think I have bluff equity on the river if I miss?

The pot will be 100$ish and I will have 50 left in my stack, so he would be getting 3:1 on his call. However, the line I used is pretty similar to people with sets so I thought that might give me some more bluff equity on the river.
I also thought that if I called the turn and hit on the river there was a solid chance I would not get paid off (especially if it was the flush).

[Piz0wn0reD!!!!!!]

[ QUOTE ]
If he calls the turn do you think I have bluff equity on the river if I miss?

[/ QUOTE ]

This is entirely read dependant. As a general rule of thumb for not having a read in this game, you have little if any fold equity on the river. Dont give players credit for reading your moves, they just dont.

Reread my first reply. Then reread TOP. In fact, read TOP every 6 months.

[soah]

Against an unknown party opponent I think you have minimal folding equity here. Unless the full ring players are just way different than the shorthanded players... You are getting a decent price considering how many outs you have, and some of those outs are very well disguised.