Another Hilton Sister Posting

[jnalpak]

I know there has been a lot of play today on QUEENS but it seems that the strong lower pairs (QQ,JJ) are the ones that my play suffers substantially after the flop, especially in MTT and SnG.

$50 NL tourney, the field was 58 strong with about 30 left. Blind were at 50/100 & Hero hasnt seen one single hand yet (24,the hammer,J5,etc). Finally hero was SB with one limper to my right. hero has Q /images/graemlins/spade.gif Q /images/graemlins/heart.gif and throws out 3BB to make it 300 to call.

the read on villian was that he played selective hands and i put him on Ax or Kx not likely to play low suited connectors too. And we both had similar stacks of 3000.

1) was that pf raise the heros first mistake?
2) knowing that the limpers probably have Ax or Kx does hero go stronger preflop?

the flop comes 10 /images/graemlins/club.gif 6 /images/graemlins/club.gif 8 /images/graemlins/club.gif
Action is to me and i get spooked by the clubs so i probe a bet of $800 ( alittle less then double the pot) and villian calls.

3)Whats the proper probe bet? and what should i read from that after he called that?
4)knowing that he probably has a CLUB or TWO was my bet correct?

Fourth street comes 10 /images/graemlins/spade.gif which completes my two pair but there are still 3 clubs on the board,

5)what is the correct bet here for him not to call if he holds ONE club?

River comes 5 /images/graemlins/club.gif i get spooked even more and now i am more miserable with being so commited with a possible flush and to be in this position with no clubs...I check and he checks back figuring he must have made his flush.

Villian turns over A /images/graemlins/club.gif 4 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif

Did i play this correct? My thoughts are i shouldve been stronger on the flop and maybe pushed in? thoughts?

[Sam T.]

Hey jnal, welcome to the board,

Some comments and questions:

1) I would bump the pre-flop raise one more BB. A common rule of thumb is 3BB + 1BB per limper.

2) I assume the limper (and not the BB) was your caller? If so, my lord is his pre-flop play horrible.

3) $800 is a little less than double the pot? Am I missing something? 150 in blinds, 250 more from you, and 300 from the limper is 700. You slightly overbet the pot.

In any case, remember that unless he's got a club or two, the board is going to scare the bejesus out of him as well. I think you can take a stab at the pot. You'd want to go a smaller bet, perhaps 2/3 to the pot so he doesn't have the odds to draw to a single club, but you don't commit yourself to the pot. Once he calls, I'm done with the hand. He's said he isn't afraid of a flush, and there is no way I'm going to do his betting for him.

[ QUOTE ]
Fourth street comes 10 which completes my two pair

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't see your point here. He now has the tens as well.

[ QUOTE ]
what is the correct bet here for him not to call if he holds ONE club?

[/ QUOTE ]

If he has one club (which you don't know), you just need to figure out the pot odds, and make a bet that would make it mathamatically incorrect for him to call. If he has one, and there are three on the board, that leaves 9 in the deck out of 46 cards, but remember that the Q /images/graemlins/club.gif makes your boat, so his odds are effectively 8:46, or around 1:4. So you would need to bet over 1/4 of the pot, but most people would go 1/2 to 2/3 to make up for whatever implied odds he might have. (I think I have this right, but am willing to be corrected.)

What happened here? Did it check around? If you shut it down here, I can't say you are wrong.

The last club is death. I would not even call a min-bet here.

In short, your post-flop play was fine.

Your opponent's play, on the other hand, was as bad as it gets. Limping with A4o is bad. Calling a raise is worse. Calling a pot+ sized bet with a flush draw is just sickening. And then he has the nut-flush and checks behind? He got very lucky and probably didn't know it.

[etgryphon]

[ QUOTE ]
So you would need to bet over 1/4 of the pot, but most people would go 1/2 to 2/3 to make up for whatever implied odds he might have. (I think I have this right, but am willing to be corrected.)

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think you can include the implied odds if you are unwilling to pay him off. If you bet more than than you need to I think you are just paying him the implied odds early. On a four flush board, there isn't a whole lot of implied odds because it is pretty clear what someone has.

Comments? I could be wrong also...

-Gryph

PS: Can't believe he checked at the end...what a moron.

[Sam T.]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't think you can include the implied odds if you are unwilling to pay him off. If you bet more than than you need to I think you are just paying him the implied odds early. On a four flush board, there isn't a whole lot of implied odds because it is pretty clear what someone has.

[/ QUOTE ]

So is the correct bet here 1/4 of the pot +1 chip? (I guess you also have to worry about an A or K coming on the river, so there are more problem cards than the clubs...)

What, then, is the right bet in this situation?

[etgryphon]

Well...Lets work it out a bit.

Based off the Flop play I think you can reasonably guess that the guy has a made flush or or the A\K of clubs. Maybe his second card is a T also.

I would have raised preflop to 500 for sure. Then I would have bet a probing bet of 600 for ~1/2 pot to just see where you are. Odds for the Flush call are worse than that. When he called, I'm guessing the A/K of clubs and maybe a pair with the board. When the second T comes, depending on your reads of the guy and whether you have him covered I think push is a viable option to move him off the hand if he is still on the club draw.

But, in reading his play I would be done with it on the turn. Too many bad cards out there.

For your original question, I think you have to bet around 1/3 of the pot to make it incorrect to call. Because we are talking about 12 outs (9 clubs, 1.5 for A, 1.5 for K)

The discussion about how much to bet is dependent. In cases like this where it is paired on the board with a three flush, I like to make it as cheap as I can for me, but still incorrect for him to call.

-Gryph

PS. I could also be completely wrong. I hope to get a few more opinions weighed in.

[schwza]

i'll take a shot at the pot odds question....

assume for concreteness that he has A /images/graemlins/club.gif4 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif. this seems reasonable in terms of optimism/pessimism - he has one overcard + the draw, so he has 8+3 = 11 outs. 46 cards left, so he's about 1/4 (or 3:1) to make his hand. if he calls a half pot bet, he'll be putting in 1/4 of the total pot, so that's breakeven for him (assuming he has no implied odds, no bluff outs [the K], and that it's impossible for him to make his hand and lose).

even ignoring implied odds, i would still bet more than 1/2 pot + 1 chip. if you bet 1/2 pot, he is not making an error by folding or by calling, so regardless of what he does to your 1/2 pot + 1 chip, he's not making a big error at all. make a healthy bet so he has the chance to make a mistake by calling. since he does have some implied odds (you'll call a small bet on the river if an A hits), make it about 3/4 pot.

[etgryphon]

He only has 8 to the flush? Doesn't he also have Q /images/graemlins/club.gif because It make you a set, but a flush for him.

I think your right, You would have to make a 2/3 - 3/4 to really make it a mistake. Is there any value to making it about even odds to see what he does? If he reraises, can you assume that he has the made flush and now you can get away cheap. If a club does indeed fall on the turn, you can get away for cheaper?

-Gryph

[Hauser_III]

No, the board is paired, so the Q /images/graemlins/club.gif gives hero a boat.

[etgryphon]

I was talking about the flop. The board hadn't paired yet.

-Gryph

[Hauser_III]

my bad

[jnalpak]

i couldnt agree more with the CHECK at the end of his play. At least i was still alive and able to see about 20 more hands which were the same BAD HANDS i saw all night long except for the sisters.

A funny anecdote was i had the hammer on my BB on my last hand...so what falls...72AK5 and i lost to a A5 and that was all she wrote!!

I didnt think of the two pair that way, thanks for changing my thought pattern on that one. I sometimes lose site that the pair on the board is HIS pair too.

thanks for all the help on this hand, i feel a bit better about my play.