Call on the Bubble?

[JackedUp]

You're down to four in a single table NLHE sit and go with blinds at 200/400 and catch 99 UTG. You raise to 800 and get called only by the big blind.

FLOP
Ace diamonds
Ace hearts
2 clubs

He checks and you bet 600. He calls.

TURN
3 clubs
He checks again. You bet 800. He calls.

RIVER
Ace spades

He goes all in for 1520. You have him covered only by about 600 chips.

Does he have the ace? A bigger pocket pair? Pair the 2 or 3? Nothing? He's been fairly aggressive the entire tournament and a little loose. The check calling was throwing me a little. He normally would raise out of the gate.

If you fold, he becomes the chip leader but you still have about 2100 chips left. If you call and make it, you have a huge chip lead over the remaining two and and are in the money. If you call and are wrong, you're not out, but with blinds at 200/400 and only 600 left, you're on life support and headed toward an exit on the bubble.

[Myst]

Call. The only hands that beat you are TT, JJ, QQ, KK, and Ax. He probably has either a 2 or 3. If he shows an Ace down, so be it.

[TomCollins]

You have no indication of the other stack sizes. I would call. The pot is 6k. You are getting 4-1 on this call.

I really hate your line the whole way though. You needed to bet more on the flop to define your hand. The other option is to check and raise the turn. With stacks that big, you should be raising to at least 1000 preflop.

[jcx]

I'd call. I would guess he has a small to medium PP and pushed when the river filled him up. If he had a big PP I think he would have reraised the flop to get a better idea of what you had. And as the previous poster stated, if he's slowplayed an Ace, oh well.

[Myst]

4 handed, btw, with blind at 200/400, 99 is a auto push btw.

[juris]

[ QUOTE ]
4 handed, btw, with blind at 200/400, 99 is a auto push btw.

[/ QUOTE ]

Depends on stack size, doesn't it?

[ColdestCall]

You should have pushed 99 pre-flop to fold any weak Aces and avoid this problem.

Given that you didnt, you probably have to call this and expect to get beaten a fair amount of the time, but the pot odds will compensate you enough for the times you lose.

[TMFS9]

I would expect to be ahead here a lot more than being behind. I would expect the guy to show anything from 2's, 3's, a smaller pocket pair, to KQ.

[ColdestCall]

You may be right, I may be crazy. But it just may be that when someone check calls half their stack to me and then moves the other half in on the river, I find that they usually have the goods. In any event, I agree that overall you'll be a winner calling here.

[alexbrew]

Of course stack size matters. He started with 4320. Putting yourself in a race (likely scenerio) if you get called seems like unnecessary gambling. With a stack like that outplaying opponents post-flop makes more sense. If you think you'll make bad decsions then yes just push.

I think the commenter was thinking in terms of PP where everyone is short stacked, which this obviously was not played at.

[JackedUp]

Well here's what happened.

I called. I figured I was ahead as well. He didn't have a large pocket pair or he would have reraised preflop. And if he had the ace, like someone said, oh well.

He showed Q7 clubs. I told you he was loose. He was trying to make the backdoor flush and when he missed he tried to buy the pot. As you all pointed out, my raises were not strong enough to fold him.

I've noticed that when it gets to be bubble time, I tend to go into a shell and play more like a rock - only play very solid cards preflop with very little raising. It usually gets me into the money because I'll wait out someone, but I'm generally the short stack once I'm there. Anyone else have that problem?

[TomCollins]

There is a difference between a rock and a pussy.

[adanthar]

Edit: ignore that, I didn't see the river A. Easy call.