Recent 109 hand that had me stumped.

[iMsoLucky0]

This is the 2nd hand of a 109 single, I have no info on any of the players. On the turn I am pretty sure I am behind, but I don't know if I can justify laying down AA here. Any input?

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t15 (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

UTG+2 (t1270)
MP1 (t785)
MP2 (t970)
MP3 (t1000)
CO (t1000)
Button (t990)
SB (t985)
BB (t1000)
Hero (t1000)
UTG+1 (t1000

Preflop: Hero is UTG with A/images/graemlins/club.gif, A/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
<font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t75</font>, UTG+1 calls t75, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, MP2 calls t75, <font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, BB calls t60.

Flop: (t307.50) 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif, T/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>

<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets t225</font>
UTG+1 Folds
<font color="#CC3333">MP2 raises to t895 and is allin</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB calls t895</font>

Hero = ?

I can post the results later if you want.

[adanthar]

The BB's call on this board makes it a fold.

[Unarmed]

[ QUOTE ]
The BB's call on this board makes it a fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why? Are you worried about flopped straights with a suited 1 gapper or just a set?
If its only the latter he can have JJ or AT 18 ways here and a set only 9.

[bigredlemon]

Smells like semi-bluffing a nut flush draw, called by a set. What other reasonable hands could have made that play? It's possible that MP2 thinks you've completely missed and tried to re-steal. BB might have an overpair. But that might be overly optimistic.

How often would AA be best in a situation like this?

[ericlambi]

I would reluctantly fold. Two people at the $100s like their hand that much, and I am out with AA. I think the chances that one of them doesn't have 2 pair or better is pretty slim. I'd be pretty surprised if neither had a set. Please post results!

[adanthar]

[ QUOTE ]
Why? Are you worried about flopped straights with a suited 1 gapper or just a set?
If its only the latter he can have JJ or AT 18 ways here and a set only 9.

[/ QUOTE ]

More like 2 pair. T8 and 86 are very possible. So is a hand like JT /images/graemlins/spade.gif, which has me beat right now but I have the odds to call since the third guy's dead money...but combined, I'm a dog.

Once in a great while he'll have kings or be a complete idiot, but it's not worth it.

edit: [ QUOTE ]
Smells like semi-bluffing a nut flush draw, called by a set.

[/ QUOTE ]

I would be very careful about generalizations like that for the raiser. He can have a lot of hands, and I would specifically *not* give him much credit for a draw (although I almost certainly have him beat.)

[Daliman]

Ya, fold and move on. Even IF you are only vs top pair and a draw, you are going broke about 50% of the time. Likely a set here though.

[Jason Strasser]

One thought that should not be going through your head is "I have x amount invested" or "I just bet 225". The situations that presents yourself is quite logical. You are getting in the ballpart of 4:1 on your call. It's not enough for me IMO... Your one pair is just not going to win this pot enough and you cant really improve much. Against the right bunch of opponents, however, I might call. The default is to fold.

[Irieguy]

I fold, but my first instinct was that it's -ChipEV to fold. I ran some quick numbers with all likely hand combinations for the BB (you almost certainly have the pusher beat), and estimate that you are probably ahead of him 75% of the time. Getting 3:1 on a call where you are likely to be ahead of each player is something that deserves some consideration.

I'm reasonably certain that it's significantly -ChipEV to fold here, but I do it anyways. My willingnes to call would increase as my ROI decreases. I think I would call if it were a $215 SNG because I'm not yet sure if I'm any good at that level, and it's likely that that would be the best chance I had at winning the thing.

Irieguy

[adanthar]

[ QUOTE ]
I fold, but my first instinct was that it's -ChipEV to fold. I ran some quick numbers with all likely hand combinations for the BB (you almost certainly have the pusher beat), and estimate that you are probably ahead of him 75% of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

Wow. That's really not what I'm thinking. What's the range you used?

[ddubois]

If you had the As, how does your thought process on the hand change? Does your hand get better because it has the backdoor flush, or worse because it reduces the likelihood of someone else going all-in with a flush draw?

I never played the $109s. How often do you see fishy chasers, i.e., will BB ever have As2s here? I assume QsJs or JsTs are possible... But how often will you see a call here from someone holding any two broadway spades? Or from crap like KTo?

[Irieguy]

[ QUOTE ]

Wow. That's really not what I'm thinking. What's the range you used?

[/ QUOTE ]

Pairs, suited aces, suited broadway cards, and KQ. If you want to include a range of hands that would allow him to make two pair or a straight, then you will be ahead even more often if he is willing to call with a flush draw or only top pair occassionally.

There are really only 6 combinations with which he would check-call here and be ahead: TT,88, and 66. There are at least 18 hand combinations that he would have a good chance of check-calling that you beat.

Irieguy

[adanthar]

[ QUOTE ]
Pairs, suited aces, suited broadway cards, and KQ. If you want to include a range of hands that would allow him to make two pair or a straight, then you will be ahead even more often if he is willing to call with a flush draw or only top pair occassionally.

[/ QUOTE ]

Wait. You gave him KQ as a *call* on this flop? That can't be right. Are you saying that you gave him a range of hands PF and then checked which of those you're ahead of on this flop? That works, but obviously your odds have to be greatly reduced because he called a big bet-&gt;all in sequence.

What happens if you give him this range?
AQ-AT and Ax /images/graemlins/spade.gif
JT /images/graemlins/spade.gif, T9 /images/graemlins/spade.gif, J9 /images/graemlins/spade.gif etc. (two one gapper or connected spades from KQ down to 75)
AT, JT-T9 and J9o (giving him no credit at all)
TT, 88, 66, T8, 86
KK-JJ, 99

I think this is a much more realistic range, and you're definitely not 75% against it.

[Irieguy]

[ QUOTE ]


Wait. You gave him KQ as a *call* on this flop?

[/ QUOTE ]

No, you have to start with a preflop range of hands to be able to calculate what percentage of the time you will be ahead vs. his likely calling hands post flop. You have to give him all KQs preflop to be able to include a King-high flush draw + 2 overs as a potential calling hand post-flop. He won't always call with that hand postflop, but I weighted it for him to call 50% of the time.

Irieguy

[adanthar]

Oh, okay. That makes more sense, but I'm still not sold on what he has to have to call this. That statement of you being ahead 75% is just not right in my experience.

Also, FWIW, I think T8/86 check the flop, too.

[Irieguy]

[ QUOTE ]


Also, FWIW, I think T8/86 check the flop, too.

[/ QUOTE ]

Sure, but you can't include those hands in your preflop cold-calling range can you? If you do, then there will be a host of other hands that may check-call post flop... so you'll still be ahead the lion's share of the time.

Irieguy

[adanthar]

On the first few hands I can include a whole bunch of hands (yes, down to 86), but what I don't agree with are that he will call this exact sequence with most of them.

A fish/LAG/really really good player (as if) can call off 7% of their stack PF with a T8-ish or 97-ish or 86-ish hand, but they won't often call a bet-&gt;all in sequence with JT *diamonds* or J9o or even KT. A lot of that trash folds this flop.

I just don't see it.

[iMsoLucky0]

The results of this hand are as follows:

I fold, because I am sure that at least one of them has me beat, and if not that I am a dog to win the pot. The pusher shows 88 for middle set, and the caller shows J9 offsuit for an open ended straight draw. So I was behind, and made a good laydown.

BTW, the turn was an Ace and the river was a duece, so I would have sucked out, but I still felt good about my laydown.

[The Yugoslavian]

[ QUOTE ]

So I was behind, and made a good laydown.
laydown.

[/ QUOTE ]

Your laydown was only as good as the *chance* that you were behind/ahead, not because you ended up behind or ahead. Saying your laydown was good b/c one of your opponents had a set is similar to saying that your laydown was bad because an A showed up on the board later on (it just doesn't sound as dumb).

From the analysis by posters much more experienced in higher buyins than myself, it seems like the decision is *quite* close and a pretty damn strong argument can be made for calling. Still, as the general consensus from strong players was to fold here, I'd take more solace in that than the fact you were shown a set after folding. So, yeah, your decision was solid but not necessarily for the reasons you seem to imply in your post.

Yugoslav

[iMsoLucky0]

I took solace in the fact that I made a read that I was behind or at best had a good chance of losing the pot, and folded, and that it seems as though this read was right.

I was not implying that it was a good laydown because I saw a set, I was implying that it was a good laydown because my read was right and people generally agreed that it wasn't a bad place to fold. I am definitely not the kind of player to look at results. Trust me, I wouldn't have cared if one of them showed AT and the other showed KT, and I would have won regardless, I still felt good about the fold.

[eastbay]

[ QUOTE ]

I never played the $109s. How often do you see fishy chasers, i.e., will BB ever have As2s here?

[/ QUOTE ]

Not often.

eastbay

[curtains]

I'd fold but I wouldn't be happy about it. I'd call the one allin of course, but the other cold call is just too scary. Also when you are behind you will be way behind, and when ahead they will often have lots of outs.

[ThorGoT]

I was playing a $109, caught two pair on the flop (two tone), bet out from last position but could not shake the draws, and a third flush card hit on the turn. Folded around to me, I bet out to protect my hand (mistake), and the first player went all in . . . and then the second player went all in . . . and then the third player went all in. Without enough time to run the numbers, I joined the party (hoping for a full house on the river -- slim odds, I realized only later). Part of my thinking, I suppose, was that they couldn't *all* have made hands (although part of me knew that at least *one* of them did). Au contraire -- they all had flushes, and the third to bet took the pot with an ace high flush. So, yeah, when there are multiple all ins at this level, it is usually the case that someone has the goods.

Edit: Except, in this case, me.