Two Call Downs CORRECTED

[naphand]

My apologies, I really managed to mess up the first post. How I missed the numerous errors is beyond me. CORRECTED POST FOLLOWS.


Two hands where I found myself playing calling station, not something I do very much. Or maybe I just do it in the wrong spots... /images/graemlins/mad.gif

This kind of spot comes up again and again on the Forum, and I now realise that I had been giving a lot of thought to the play wrt who and was missing something that really now seems quite obvious. I am not surprised, but I am interested and given the number of posts on this line I am hoping one or two others can conribute to some discussion here, although it may just bew quite ordinary and I have been sleeping through my hands of late... /images/graemlins/smirk.gif


HAND 1

PokerRoom $2/$4 Hold'em (5 handed)

Preflop: Naphand is Button with A/images/graemlins/club.gif, J/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
UTG calls, CO folds, Naphand raises, SB folds, BB folds, UTG calls.

Flop: (5.5 SB) 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif, T/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif (2 players)
UTG bets, Naphand calls.

Turn: (3.75 BB) 4/images/graemlins/club.gif (2 players)
UTG bets, Naphand calls.

River: (5.75 BB) J/images/graemlins/club.gif (2 players)
UTG bets, Naphand calls.


HAND 2

PokerRoom $2/$4 Hold'em (5 handed)

Preflop: Naphand is BB with A/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 5/images/graemlins/club.gif.
UTG calls, CO folds, Button calls, SB folds, Naphand checks.

Flop: (3.75 SB) 2/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 7/images/graemlins/club.gif, 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (3 players)
Naphand bets, UTG raises, Button folds, Naphand calls.

Turn: (3.75 BB) 4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (2 players)
Naphand checks, UTG bets, Naphand calls.

River: (5.75 BB) 5/images/graemlins/heart.gif (2 players)
Naphand checks, UTG bets, Naphand raises, UTG calls.


Let's hear some comment. I am not sure if I have been missing something, or if I am just so shocked to draw out on the River... /images/graemlins/ooo.gif

NB.
Actually I have been missing something, which I intend to discuss after getting feedback.

[naphand]

Grisgra SAID (from original thread)

Hand #1: I raise the flop. But I believe that he's got a pair or an eight (in which case my jack-outs are gone) when he takes the lead (though I guess could be a couple of hearts) so I'm not sure you have odds to call the turn in your line.

Hand #2: I call this one down too, absent any reads. But given that UTG limped, he probably isn't raising with overcards. He probably has a 7 or something like 88 or, if you're lucky, A2.

Given in Hand #2 that you're probably best if any A,5,or 3 comes, I think you've got odds to call to the river. And then you just have to find out what he open-limps with, UTG so you need to call regardless /images/graemlins/smile.gif.

[naphand]

PokerNoob SAID (from original thread)

Hand 1: I usually raise the flop here. If threebet and lead at, I can fold. River is bad for raising since the common loose limping JT gets there as did something with an eight, but I of course call (assuming he bet), since it could be a plethora of other face/ten and face/nine hands if he's loose.

Hand 2: ... Turn gives you nine outs, so call. Definitely raise the river.

[spydog]

Hand 1: I almost always raise this flop with the gutbuster + 2 overcards in order to get a free look at the river. I don't raise the river in your example.

Hand 2: Looks good. I'm probably calling this down if JQK doesn't hit on the turn.

[fyodor]

Hand 1 - I play various ways. Sometimes I will pop right back on the flop because there are plenty of players who will lead into the preflop raiser with absolutely nothing thinking he usually missed as well. Sometimes I will just fold right there. Normally I will just peel one off to see if I hit one of my overs.

If I take option 3 like you and then miss on the turn as well, I would normally fold after that. Once in awhile I will peel one more.

When it actually hits I definitely raise the river. If you don't think your Jack is any good why did you stick around in the first place?

Hand 2 - I will sometimes lead on the flop and sometime go for the checkraise. If I lead like you and get raised, I call like you. Definite odds to call again on the turn with any Ace, 5 or 3 likely to win it.

edit - missed the gut shot on Hand 1. Definitely makes calling the turn again ok.

edit - arrgghhh!!!! missed that he may have been betting the open end. Now I know why you never raised your Jack. But that then makes the turn call incorrect again.

[Benjamin]

[ QUOTE ]
edit - arrgghhh!!!! missed that he may have been betting the open end. Now I know why you never raised your Jack. But that then makes the turn call incorrect again.

[/ QUOTE ]
Well, if all his opponent was betting was a draw, then naphand was ahead and should certainly call the turn, if not raise.

The probability cloud of the opponent's holdings definitely includes some good sized chunk of holdings like A8, QJ, or 2 unpaired hearts. It also includes pairs, pairs + draw, 2 pair, and a small representation of sets and made straights.

Your combination of being ahead, or having outs is plenty to see the river. And if the river was, say, the 4 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif, then I'd probably call a river bet and showdown my good ace.

B.

[helpmeout]

1. Raise here you want to see the river with that hand.

If you dont raise you have to fold on the turn.

2. Standard, you pickup a gutshot on the turn. A read would be nice.

[fyodor]

No what I meant by it now being incorrect was that if he thinks he is behind but views his Jack outs as potentially useless then the odds are no longer there to make that call.

[naphand]

It is not really a question on thinking my J outs are tainted, they could be, but they might be OK. He might be betting the OESD and the J is dead, but he might not be and it is live. I don't think you can easily discount it entirely, like this. I knew the J outs could be trouble, but they would still win enough times for them to represent partial outs surely?

[Grisgra]

[ QUOTE ]
It is not really a question on thinking my J outs are tainted, they could be, but they might be OK. He might be betting the OESD and the J is dead, but he might not be and it is live. I don't think you can easily discount it entirely, like this. I knew the J outs could be trouble, but they would still win enough times for them to represent partial outs surely?

[/ QUOTE ]

I think it's time for *you* to do some math /images/graemlins/smile.gif. It's marginal I think. I don't think you do, but maybe it can go either way. I'll be interested in the results.

[naphand]

Really? How about is the J is dead he is drawing and I am ahead? If he is not betting the OESD then the J is live. Why would this pose a problem, either way I am ahead or have correct odds.

[Grisgra]

[ QUOTE ]
Really? How about is the J is dead he is drawing and I am ahead? If he is not betting the OESD then the J is live. Why would this pose a problem, either way I am ahead or have correct odds.

[/ QUOTE ]

Just was curious in the odds calculations . . .

[naphand]

HAND 1

Opponent shows Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif MHIG

Opponent was betting TP. I need 7 outs to call; even if the J outs are no good I still only need a single overcard plus gutshot to justify a call here. If I had only called PF the pot would be 8 SB rather than 11 SB, and I could not call unless I felt the J outs were definitely good. I would need 8 outs to call, unless I can justify the call in terms of implied odds should I hit (of course, an 8 will split the pot a fair percentage of the time, whenever opponent has JT or J8). However, the Turn is crunch card; I do now need 8 outs to make the call. This seems to be the justification for raising the flop for a free card. helpmeout posts to this effect ("Raise here you want to see the river with that hand.") though with no further comment as to why. I still do not believe I should totally discount the J outs, I only need to be able to include 1 of those outs (i.e. discount from 4 outs to just 1, I think 2 is more accurate). If he is betting the OESD I am leading, the problem is an OESD+pair hand. Is discounting (but not entirely) preferable to raising and potenitally seeing a 3-bet plus Turn bet? If this happens I actually still have odds to call the 3-bet and Turn bet with just 7 outs, though it is very tight on the Turn in this situation. Again, is it preferable to raise on this basis?

Apologies if this is all very obvious to people, but I am trying to see the more aggressive play from a different angle. This hand got me thinking about not only the value of raising (better odds to call if you are behind on the flop) but also about how tight and close many decisions are on the flop and Turn. An extra bet here or there, do I discount my outs and by how many? There may be a lot of decisions that are much closer that I previously thought. Comments?


HAND 2

Opponent shows 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif,9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif MHIG

I am not getting enough to call the flop here with 5 outs (11 SB in the pot), I need 7 outs. The questions in my mind are:

(1) What % of the time do I have to be good here when raised to make this call correct? How is this figure changed when considering my opponent was a fish with a very low AF (PF 0, flop 0.46) who is not raising many hands?

(2) Does anyone have a comment about the fact that betting/calling a raise is a superior play with a 2nd-best hand as (i) you could be best anyway and (ii) is there any advantage in ths line in terms of the playabiity of morehands (you have 6.5:1 pot odds when behind, as opposed to 4.5:1 when check/calling) i.e. is this line preferable for some hand types rather than others, if you are staying in and behind? If so, what hands? Sorry that is a bit crptic, but it just got me thinking.