POLL: 99 overpair - flop decision

[btspider]

I pulled this hand from the archives. No reads were provided by the original poster. My primary question was the flop decision. If you disagree with the PF action, try to just accept it /images/graemlins/smile.gif.

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (8 handed)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 9/images/graemlins/club.gif, 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif. CO posts a blind of $1.
UTG folds, UTG+1 folds, MP1 raises, MP2 folds, CO (poster) calls, Hero 3-bets, SB caps, BB folds, MP1 calls, CO calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (17 SB) 5/images/graemlins/club.gif, 2/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif (4 players)
SB bets, MP1 calls, CO calls, Hero ????

Summary of arguments:

raise:
Push our equity when ahead and gain information cheaply if we are behind (ck-fold the turn if 3-bet). AK will often check the turn, so we won't be able to push our equity on the turn with the best hand.

call flop, raise turn blank:
We cannot protect our hand, so raise a turn blank to push our equity edge. If a scare card does come, we may save a few bets by using our position to see our opponents act first. A bigger pair will auto-3bet the flop, but will often not 3-bet our turn raise.. allowing us to see a free showdown.. allowing us to gain more bets when we catch a 9 on the river.

call flop, call turn blank if SB bets:
While a turn blank will affect our equity significantly (if we're ahead), we really don't know where we stand. if SB is aggressive enough to bet AK on the turn, he's aggressive enough to 3-bet his cap-worthy overpairs. since AK will often call our turn raise, we don't protect ourselves from his 6 outs when ahead, but forfeit our 2 outs when behind.

call flop, fold turn if SB bets:
SB will not be betting AK on the turn and we don't have odds to continue looking to hit a set.

[chief444]

I think for anyone choosing to call the flop, whether to call or raise the turn depends greatly on how many callers are left in between.

[btspider]

of course. polls are not exact and posts are welcome. for the poll, pick the most appropriate one, but a discussion is always preferable.

[adamstewart]

I'm wondering...

When the action comes to Hero, it's been raised by MP1, with only 1 other in the pot so far. PRETEND LIKE YOU'RE ACTUALLY PLAYING THE HAND AT THAT POINT, AND DON'T KNOW WHAT THE ACTION WILL BE BEHIND YOU.

Even though the cold-caller was a poster (blind hand), I don't think that 3-betting will cause the Blind Hand to fold. Therefore, 3-betting will likley not isolate the MP1- which would be our main purpose in 3-betting.

The only chance for isolation comes if the MP1 caps, in which case, Hero is really in trouble.

Typically, we need at least 3 others already in the pot to justify cold-calling 2 bets with a "medium pocket pair."

Sooo, I'm leaning towards folding pre-flop. Or is this weak?

Adam

[adamstewart]

Raise.

Find out where you stand earlier, rather than later.

Adam

[chief444]

If that's your reason for raising, then are you folding to a flop 3-bet and turn bet? I'm not crazy about that line.

[ErrantNight]

i don't see how you can justify a raise here... you've got the field trapped for the raise... you're unlikely at best to be buying yourself a free turn, you quite likely could get 3-bet (in which case the field isn't so trapped, but you're equally screwed)... regardless, you don't want to "trap" better hands for additional bets or allow overcards to 3-bet and force out the callers and scare you out on a turn bet.

call, re-evaluate on the turn. any under 9 cards are lovely, I'm inclined to call this again on the turn with most anything, however, as you can't do anything about the callers. if they fold on the turn, however, a blank could be raised.

i think an A or K makes for an easy fold on either of the final streets.

[Sarge85]

I think calling is better here.

Raise does nothing to protect your hand. If I raise, they all call, and may even call again on the turn with overs which I don't want.

Consider the fact that maybe the SB just has overs, AK, whatever, and he checks the turn if no overcard falls. I would have to think that at least one of the other players caught a 7, 5, maybe have 88 or something. Point being someone else should take a stab on the turn.

If the board is still realtively favorable, then you can raise a bettor in front of you.

I guess I'm assuming one or more players are on overcards, and least one of the players will stab at the pot, giving you a chance to raise.

That being said, i like that line than throwing in an extra bet on the flop that does nothing to help me win the hand.

Sarge/images/graemlins/diamond.gif

[adamstewart]

I see everyone's points here, and this is a great hand to discuss.

Assuming you simply call the flop... what is your line if a K or Q falls on the turn?? (I think we all agree that if an Ace falls, you are way behind).

Alternatively, what if a "blank" falls on the turn, and someone bets into you again? If you raise on the turn, you may get re-raised by a higher pair. (This would be similar to raising on the flop, except it's costing us Big Bets now instead of Small Bets).

Very tough decision here, I think.

Adam

[Sarge85]

[ QUOTE ]

Assuming you simply call the flop... what is your line if a K or Q falls on the turn. (I think we all agree that if an Ace falls, you are way behind).

[/ QUOTE ]

Keep in mind, we've three bet this PF. If another shell comes after me on the turn when some paint falls, I think it realitively safe to dump the hand, especially if there are overcalls, and the board was pretty drawless.

[ QUOTE ]

Alternatively, what if a "blank" falls on the turn, and someone bets into you again? If you raise on the turn, you may get re-raised by a higher pair. (This would be similar to raising on the flop, except it's costing us Big Bets now instead of Small Bets).

[/ QUOTE ]

True Dat....

But what bigger pairs are out there? TT? Wouldn't the rest generally cap PF?

Yes it's Big Bets, but that's just it. People would be less inclined to call 2 BBs if they continue to miss the board.

Sarge/images/graemlins/diamond.gif

[Entity]

[ QUOTE ]
But what bigger pairs are out there? TT? Wouldn't the rest generally cap PF?


[/ QUOTE ]
Keep in mind that they can't cap PF, because SB did it for you.

SB's cap throws a wrench into my usual line, which would be to call the flop and raise the turn. In this case, I call the flop with the intention of re-evaluating based on which turn card falls and what the action is to me.

Rob

[Sarge85]

Totally missed the cap action....my bad.

Play it the same though, but with more reason NOT to raise the flop and with more inclination to FOLD the turn if the turn has much color at all.

Sarge/images/graemlins/diamond.gif

[adamstewart]

What about preflop? (see my original post above)

[Sarge85]

About whether you should fold or not?

I rank it this way -(this is also player dependent, and your own playing style dependent)

1)Raise
2)Fold
3)Call

Sarge/images/graemlins/diamond.gif

[DavidC]

I thought we'd already discussed that we weren't going to discuss pre-flop. /images/graemlins/wink.gif

I have an opinion, but I'm not going to admit it, even under water-torture. /images/graemlins/laugh.gif

[DMBFan23]

we agree that our pot equity edge is small, right? this is pretty similar to the TT "two overpair hands" hand.

from that section:

"With the tens, the small edge on the flop combined with the large change in pot equity on fourth street makes waiting for the turn the better play. if you reraise the flop, your opponents will probably just check to you on the turn. when the turn card is favorable, you really want an opponent to bet so you can raise."

Later, Ed writes:

"You are forgoing a raise with a small positive expectation hoping to get one in later with a much larger expectation. you could be checked to on the turn even if you only call. Because you are risking a small +EV to gain a lot of +EV, it need not succeed that often to be profitable."

with that said, I'm surprised so many voted for the flop raise.

[captZEEbo1]

I thought the same thing...this is STRAIGHT from SSHE.

[btspider]

[ QUOTE ]
we agree that our pot equity edge is small, right? this is pretty similar to the TT "two overpair hands" hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

i agree our equity edge is small, *however* i think a huge difference between those two hands is that in TT we strongly believe we have the best made hand and the blanks are more or less known. the flop bettor in this case cannot have TPTK or a similar hand.

here, we have no idea if we are ahead (vs 9-15 outs) or drawing to 2 outs. information, if we can get it cheap, may be worth the price of the flop raise.

--------------------

that said, when this hand was originally posted, i argued to raise the flop primarily on that distinction. if we face AK, we cannot push our equity on the turn b/c they may check to us anyway. if we face QQ+, we get the right information at the wrong time by raising a turn blank.

now, i am leaning more towards the flop call camp b/c I think we can often get some good information by watching everyone else act.

[DMBFan23]

that's true, a bet from SB on the turn, after being called in 4 spots, is more likely to represent a big pair as opposed to AK. so perhaps raising the turn isn't great either. but can raising the flop be?

[ QUOTE ]
a difference between this and the TT hand is that in the TT hand we strongly believe we have the best made hand

[/ QUOTE ]

consider me served.

[DeeJ]

Where was the poll option to fold? /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[chief444]

Can one of the now 48 people who voted to raise this flop please explain to me why? Is there something I'm not considering here?

[josh1122]

[ QUOTE ]
here, we have no idea if we are ahead (vs 9-15 outs) or drawing to 2 outs. information, if we can get it cheap, may be worth the price of the flop raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is why I voted for a flop raise, that is, to gain information on a cheaper street.

[chief444]

If SB bets the flop and is called in 3 places what do you think it means when he bets the turn? Not to mention he did cap preflop from the blind.

I'm thinking I'm drawing to two outs here. If I'm not I have no real chance of doing anything to protect my hand at this point and I still don't have much equity.

[btspider]

[ QUOTE ]
If SB bets the flop and is called in 3 places what do you think it means when he bets the turn? Not to mention he did cap preflop from the blind.

[/ QUOTE ]

are you one of the turn check-folders? most people advocating the flop call intend to raise a turn blank.. so i think the biggest disparity in the different lines is deciding what SB will do with AK. the turn raisers think he'll bet AK into 3 opponents.

[ QUOTE ]
I'm thinking I'm drawing to two outs here. If I'm not I have no real chance of doing anything to protect my hand at this point and I still don't have much equity.

[/ QUOTE ]

if SB has AK, you likely have more equity than the TT SSH example. there are no cold-callers with flush draws, etc.. if SB has AK, then MP is likely in bad shape with 0-3 additional outs.. though he could hold TT or similar and just not raised the flop fearing a monster from SB. The CO poster may have 3-5 outs.. so I think we face 9-15 outs here. there is a little value in the raise when ahead, and we gain information when behind. against the hands we are giving each opponent, SB/MP will often not bet a turn blank.. meaning we gain no additional protection by waiting and simply passed on some value on the flop.

----------------

all that said, those were my old arguments and i think CO *may* bet a turn blank (if SB/MP check) with a lower pair allowing us to clean up those 6-9 overcards on the rare occasion. that's a huge coup for our weak holding in this large pot. if SB bets and everyone folds, we can probably call down, and betting the river if he checks.. gaining a curiosity call from SB.

[colgin]

[ QUOTE ]
Can one of the now 48 people who voted to raise this flop please explain to me why? Is there something I'm not considering here?

[/ QUOTE ]

I had voted to raise the flop but had misread the action. Meh /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

Now that I see that SB capped pre-flop and led this raggedy flop, I think Hero should just call getting something like 20:1 closing the action, and then fold the turn if he doesn't spike a 9 and SB leads out again.

Unless you have a specific read on SB to thecontrary I don't see how he caps pre-flop and keeps betting into a large field that likely won't fold due to the pot size without holding a big pair. Without turning a set I think Hero can safely fold the turn to another bet by SB.

[StellarWind]

[ QUOTE ]
Can one of the now 48 people who voted to raise this flop please explain to me why? Is there something I'm not considering here?

[/ QUOTE ]
Would you settle for a response from #49?

I raise the flop because it is a value bet at 3-1 odds. I'll play the rest of the hand when I get there.

What about waiting for the turn? Read this (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showthreaded.php?Cat=&Board=smallholdem&Number=116 2153&Forum=f3,f21&Words=%2BCDC%20sister&Searchpage =0&Limit=200&Main=1161530&Search=true&where=bodysu b&Name=7907&daterange=1&newerval=6&newertype=m&old erval=&oldertype=&bodyprev=#Post1162153).

BTW, dumping a pair of nines after an open raise from an unknown Button+3 and a call by a poster is ridiculous. Easy 3-bet.

[chief444]

[ QUOTE ]
are you one of the turn check-folders? most people advocating the flop call intend to raise a turn blank.. so i think the biggest disparity in the different lines is deciding what SB will do with AK. the turn raisers think he'll bet AK into 3 opponents.


[/ QUOTE ]
Show me what the turn card and action is to me and then I'll let you know. All I know for now is I'm calling the flop.

[colgin]

[ QUOTE ]
This is why I voted for a flop raise, that is, to gain information on a cheaper street.

[/ QUOTE ]

And what will you with that information? Fold? You will still have to call when SB three-bets you here but you will have destroyed your implied odds for turning a set by having paid 3 SBs when you could have just paid one.

[chief444]

Stellar,

SB capped pf behind him and then led the flop. Otherwise, I would agree with you.

[btspider]

thanks Stellar, I argued flop raise in the original thread and finally convinced myself to call the flop and now i'm back in confusion land /images/graemlins/smile.gif

i agree that call flop, raise turn is probably no good, but is there any merit to calling the flop, hoping the CO bets a lower pair on a turn blank and you can raise him to clean up potentially 6-9 overcards from the other PF raisers?

if SB bets the turn and everyone folds, you can call him down for 1 BB more and see both the river and a showdown.. possibly taking a huge pot against a potentially unknown over-aggro player (or improving).

if SB bets the turn and someone raises, easy fold and you save 1 BB. if a Q or J comes on the turn and SB checks, but MP bets, you can likely fold confidently as well.

aren't these options worth more than the marginal +EV you gain on the flop when ahead?

[Entity]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Can one of the now 48 people who voted to raise this flop please explain to me why? Is there something I'm not considering here?

[/ QUOTE ]
Would you settle for a response from #49?

I raise the flop because it is a value bet at 3-1 odds. I'll play the rest of the hand when I get there.

What about waiting for the turn? Read this (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showthreaded.php?Cat=&Board=smallholdem&Number=116 2153&Forum=f3,f21&Words=%2BCDC%20sister&Searchpage =0&Limit=200&Main=1161530&Search=true&where=bodysu b&Name=7907&daterange=1&newerval=6&newertype=m&old erval=&oldertype=&bodyprev=#Post1162153).

BTW, dumping a pair of nines after an open raise from an unknown Button+3 and a call by a poster is ridiculous. Easy 3-bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

Stellar,

Are you completing discounting SB's preflop cap when he leads the turn here?

Rob

[StellarWind]

[ QUOTE ]
Are you completing discounting SB's preflop cap when he leads the turn here?

[/ QUOTE ]
I take the cap very seriously. I don't understand what you are trying to say.

[StellarWind]

[ QUOTE ]
SB capped pf behind him and then led the flop. Otherwise, I would agree with you.

[/ QUOTE ]
I don't understand. What part of my post do you disagree with? What do you want to do instead?

[Entity]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Are you completing discounting SB's preflop cap when he leads the turn here?

[/ QUOTE ]
I take the cap very seriously. I don't understand what you are trying to say.

[/ QUOTE ]

Stellar,

I just read the link you provided and I'll have something to think about while I drink my morning coffee. What it sounds like you're saying is that this is the only time you'll get an opportunity to raise, because SB isn't betting AK on the turn, so you may as well get your value on the flop -- right?

I'm just trying to understand; my question about the cap was posed to get more information about why you raise. Reading the link you provided has helped.

Rob

[chief444]

I thought you were referring to the preflop action and just missed that SB capped.

The hand you linked in your first reply is in no way similar to this one, BTW. That one clearly should have been raised on the flop.

Just to clarify, I'm not saying wait until the turn to raise (although I may, depending) but I certainly wouldn't be folding for one bet either.

I guess we just disagree on how much equity hero has on the flop here.

[Bob T.]

I like the three bet here, the poster is likely to be in the worst shape of everyone, the raiser, may have light values, because he was hoping to steal the extra blind, and I think that you are maximizing your share of the equity with the raise. When it gets capped, it isn't as much fun.

[Bob T.]

With the action coming from the small blind, you are never going to be able to protect this hand in a largish pot. I think you should raise the flop, and then see the reaction. If you get three bet, then I think you slow down, if it just gets called, plan on betting the turn, but don't be surprised if you get checkraised, because that would be the best way for the SB to protect his hand.

The best play, is of course to spike a nine somewhere between the turn and the river /images/graemlins/grin.gif.

[colgin]

[ QUOTE ]
The best play, is of course to spike a nine somewhere between the turn and the river . /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

Bob, you are always the voice of true wisdom. /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[DMBFan23]

[ QUOTE ]
Read this.

[/ QUOTE ]

isn't bison in a different situation there as far as being able to face multiple people with two bets cold?

as far as this thread, now I'm all confused here.

[StellarWind]

[ QUOTE ]
What it sounds like you're saying is that this is the only time you'll get an opportunity to raise, because SB isn't betting AK on the turn, so you may as well get your value on the flop -- right?

[/ QUOTE ]
Exactly.

[btspider]

Bob T, thanks for stopping by /images/graemlins/smile.gif

this post (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showthreaded.php?Cat=&Number=1537568&page=0&view=c ollapsed&sb=5&o=14&vc=1) slipped through the cracks and outlines my major thoughts after convincing myself to not raise the flop..

in my mind its either raise flop (at best vs 9-15 outs) and forfeit any hope of protection, or take the actions in that post. i'd greatly appreciate a direct response to those points from you or stellar. it took a great effort to decide to forego the flop raise and this thread had been greatly anti-flop raise so i was feeling good for just a minute /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[StellarWind]

[ QUOTE ]
isn't bison in a different situation there as far as being able to face multiple people with two bets cold?

[/ QUOTE ]
The applicable principle is the same:

1. In each case raising the flop would do something useful (protect the hand in bison's case, value bet at 3-1 in this case).

2. In each case the argument is made that the benefits of a flop raise should be sacrificed for the greater benefit of raising the turn instead.

3. In each case SB will probably bet the turn if and only if he has a better hand than you do. This completely destroys the argument for raising the turn.

4. Which leaves no reason not to raise the flop.

Apparently some posters have completely swung to the opposite pole from the turn raisers. They are so pessimistic about their chances after the PF cap that they see negative value in a flop raise. That's an idea and against some players it would certainly be correct. In that case the best line is call-call-call while praying for a nine or the backdoor straight.

[chesspain]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
What it sounds like you're saying is that this is the only time you'll get an opportunity to raise, because SB isn't betting AK on the turn, so you may as well get your value on the flop -- right?

[/ QUOTE ]
Exactly.

[/ QUOTE ]

So are you saying you might wait for the turn to raise if SB had not capped preflop?

[chief444]

Stellar,

With all due respect, the two hands are completely different. The pot is not as big in Bison's example. There was only one raise preflop (as opposed to one opponent open raising and a blind capping the 3-bet. Bison was in position to protect his hand. Bison had less of a chance of being drawn out on. Bison had a better chance to improve if he didn't hold the best hand then. Basically, Bison had a probability of having far more pot equity than 99 does here. I see very few similarities.

[ QUOTE ]
2. In each case the argument is made that the benefits of a flop raise should be sacrificed for the greater benefit of raising the turn instead.

3. In each case SB will probably bet the turn if and only if he has a better hand than you do. This completely destroys the argument for raising the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]
I agree completely that SB only bets better hands on the turn and it would be bad to raise the turn if SB bet. But you can't really choose a turn decision until you see what happens so I think the poll is misleading in that aspect.

[DMBFan23]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
isn't bison in a different situation there as far as being able to face multiple people with two bets cold?

[/ QUOTE ]
The applicable principle is the same:

1. In each case raising the flop would do something useful (protect the hand in bison's case, value bet at 3-1 in this case).

2. In each case the argument is made that the benefits of a flop raise should be sacrificed for the greater benefit of raising the turn instead.

3. In each case SB will probably bet the turn if and only if he has a better hand than you do. This completely destroys the argument for raising the turn.

4. Which leaves no reason not to raise the flop.

Apparently some posters have completely swung to the opposite pole from the turn raisers. They are so pessimistic about their chances after the PF cap that they see negative value in a flop raise. That's an idea and against some players it would certainly be correct. In that case the best line is call-call-call while praying for a nine or the backdoor straight.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm certainly one of those posters who has swung from the raise the turn camp, raising SB's bet seems bad on account of point 3 above. but folding the turn to a blank seems like it would be a tough fold. I'll have to think about the flop more.

EDIT: thanks for clearing this sh** up.

[btspider]

[ QUOTE ]
4. Which leaves no reason not to raise the flop.

Apparently some posters have completely swung to the opposite pole from the turn raisers. They are so pessimistic about their chances after the PF cap that they see negative value in a flop raise. That's an idea and against some players it would certainly be correct. In that case the best line is call-call-call while praying for a nine or the backdoor straight.

[/ QUOTE ]

sorry, just feel like i'm shouting my points (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showthreaded.php?Cat=&Number=1537568&page=0&view=c ollapsed&sb=5&o=14&vc=1) and no one can hear me. the flop raise argument has mostly been responding to the flop call, turn raise argument.. which is definitely wrong.

i am not pessimistic about our flop raise's EV*. however, I think it comes at the expense of saving bets on scary turns (J+ facing a bet from SB/MP), making a tremendous equity gain if a blank comes and CO bets a worse pair, or catching an unknown potentially overaggro SB (if HU).

* our equity could be 50% (http://twodimes.net/h/?z=711259) or more when ahead since we are likely against 9-15 outs. however, we may only be ahead about half the time.. so our equity is around the midpoint between 5% (we won't see the river when we raise) and 50%.. so 27-28%.. say 30%. its marginally +EV, but is that minor edge enough to overcome the points I was babbling about above?

[StellarWind]

[ QUOTE ]
So are you saying you might wait for the turn to raise if SB had not capped preflop?

[/ QUOTE ]
I hadn't given that question any thought. The pot becomes smaller, SB's likely hands completely change, and MP1's decision to just call the flop takes on a much wimpier meaning. It's a whole new hand.

It's certainly no longer the case that SB will only bet the turn with a better hand. But I would still worry about him checking the turn. It's really hard to pass up a flop raise when my pot equity looks so good. I'm getting 3-1 with a likely best hand and maybe an average of 12 outstanding outs. That's a lot of money to pass up on speculation.

[chief444]

bt,

I think what you're arguing does give a little more reason to call since someone else may bet into you those times SB does check the turn and you do in fact hold the best hand. But I don't think it should be a big consideration here.

I think your analysis is pretty good. I just don't believe based on the action so far that you're ahead 50% of the time is all. I have a hard time believing you have 30% of the pot equity in this hand.

[StellarWind]

[ QUOTE ]
With all due respect, the two hands are completely different.

[/ QUOTE ]
Yup. And if you go back and find the original CDC's sister hand that's yet another different hand.

The common denominator for all three hands is the turn raise play is bad due to the same 4-point reasoning I outlined in my previous post.

Bison's hand has nothing to do with the argument being made that this hand is also too weak to raise the flop. That's a real objection and IMO a read-dependent close decision.

[chief444]

[ QUOTE ]
The common denominator for all three hands is the turn raise play is bad due to the same 4-point reasoning I outlined in my previous post.

[/ QUOTE ]
I agree completely and you did a terrific job in that post outlining exactly why.

As for the flop, I definitely see your argument for it being a raise for value and I agree it's close. Certainly closer than I thought at first.

Thanks.

[StellarWind]

It's essential to decide how likely you think SB is to be playing an overpair. A read would really help. Absent reads on the opposing players I think we have a thin edge on the flop for pushing a 3-1 bet. It's a close decision.

There are some bet saving possibilities on the turn from calling the flop. You may get a bad card and then you can fold when someone bets in front of you, but:

1. The pot is getting big. Assuming you just call the flop a 16 BB final pot is likely. You don't save very much by folding the turn for one bet and abandoning your set draw. Maybe 1/4 BB.

2. If the turn card is bad enough, like an ace or king, you may gain by stealing a free card for your two outs and folding the river when you miss.

[ QUOTE ]
so our equity is around the midpoint between 5% (we won't see the river when we raise)

[/ QUOTE ]
What did you mean by this? If we raise the flop and get 3-bet it's too late for second thoughts. The pot is now too big to fold for one bet ever. You'll be getting 17-1 to call the turn. That makes your 2-out set draw a virtual wash on the implied odds because you can raise the river from trap position. Since you cannot be completely sure your hand is no good, you'll have to call the turn for the outs and the river just in case.

Raising the flop means drawing you hand out. Your 2.3 outs provide a 10% pot equity core for your flop raise. The rest you need to get from your chance of having and maintaining the best hand.

[btspider]

yep, i agree a read would help quite a bit and the flop raise is likely marginally +EV against an unknown.

[ QUOTE ]
1. The pot is getting big. Assuming you just call the flop a 16 BB final pot is likely. You don't save very much by folding the turn for one bet and abandoning your set draw. Maybe 1/4 BB.

[/ QUOTE ]

the "saved BB" i was referring to was when you would put 1 SB instead of 3 in on the flop. you may get the same information on the turn without putting those extra bets in on the flop. those savings partially offset the marginal gains from the flop bet.

[ QUOTE ]
2. If the turn card is bad enough, like an ace or king, you may gain by stealing a free card for your two outs and folding the river when you miss.

[/ QUOTE ]

you could still gain this free card without raising the flop if the scare card misses SB/MP. it may be an A or K which misses SB's overpair (JJ-KK) and MP's (AQ/AJ/KQ/etc), but scares them into thinking you have an AK (when you just call the flop).*

[ QUOTE ]
If we raise the flop and get 3-bet it's too late for second thoughts. The pot is now too big to fold for one bet ever. You'll be getting 17-1 to call the turn. That makes your 2-out set draw a virtual wash on the implied odds <snip>

[/ QUOTE ]

i am probably expecting MP or CO to fold either to a flop 3-bet or the turn bet fearing domination + more action. if one folds the turn, the best in implied odds you can expect is 20:1 (16:1 on turn, and 4 BB's on the river). it could be as bad as 18:1 on the river if they fold the flop or don't pay off the river. that leaves 10-20% of the time requiring you to have the best hand despite a flop 3-bet. certainly possible. i'm a bit more pessimistic in this aspect i guess.


* maybe this is too rare, i may be a bit biased since this is exactly what happened in the original hand (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=&Board=micro&Number=1438165&fpart =1&PHPSESSID=) ... a turned A gave the Hero a chance to take a free card, despite his flop call.

[chief444]

[ QUOTE ]
the "saved BB" i was referring to was when you would put 1 SB instead of 3 in on the flop. you may get the same information on the turn without putting those extra bets in on the flop. those savings partially offset the marginal gains from the flop bet.

[/ QUOTE ]
This all needs to be considered when deciding whether the flop bet is +EV or -EV. If you say the flop bet is +EV then it better include those times you're 3-bet.

[StellarWind]

[ QUOTE ]
and the flop raise is likely marginally +EV against an unknown.

[/ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
the "saved BB" i was referring to was when you would put 1 SB instead of 3 in on the flop. you may get the same information on the turn without putting those extra bets in on the flop. those savings partially offset the marginal gains from the flop bet.

[/ QUOTE ]
This is a mathematical no-no.

Any decision to raise or make a closing call involves two EV elements.

1. The direct value from the extra money going into the pot on this street. You pay N bets out of your stack, the overall pot size increases by K bets, and you have an X% chance of winning in the end.

EV = (K * X) - N

In this situation the actual immediate EV is a weighted average of the times you get called and the times you get reraised.

2. The change in the way future streets play out. You can gain or lose bets on future streets and the eventual winner of the pot can also change. This is often very hard to quantify but we need to at least try and talk about it (which we are).

So what's the problem? Your first quote offers a settlement of item #1. It's probably marginally +EV.

Once you say that you are done with #1. You can't talk about gaining or losing bets on the flop any more. You already assumed that when they are all added up the gains will slightly outweigh the losses. That makes your second quote out of order.

The only thing left to talk about is how your flop action may gain or lose on the turn and river. My take on that situation is that sometimes calling helps and sometimes raising helps. You gave examples of the first (I thought) so I gave examples of the second to restore the balance. I think it is balanced. I don't think either flop play is a big asset on the turn.

[cpk]

You cannot protect 9s at any point in this hand. You should raise to maximize instant equity. The chapter in SSH concerning this was slightly miswritten, and the goal of calling-then-raising is to get a hand to fold incorrectly facing two bets. You're out of position for that, anyway.

Remember, to delay action, you should have a compelling reason as to why this play makes you more money. You don't. If you delay to get the money in, you may not get another chance. Scare cards to you will also scare people who might continue calling, though drawing very thin.

[Chris Daddy Cool]

sup homies,

i'm new to this thread and haven't read the replies yet, but i think calling the flop and waiting for a "safe" card on the turn to raise is clearly wrong.

in such a large pot with multiple callers with SB being in first position, SB will not bet again on this turn with a hand that can't beat nines. if he bets again on the turn, you're going to be raising his AA,KK,QQ,JJ for him.

i think its a pretty close decision between raising the flop and calling the flop and re-evalue. either way no matter what you do you can't be too sure about your hand, but the likely action in this hand if you choose the raise the flop line is:

you raise, and sb 3-bets and nobody folds. and you obviously can't fold either because the pot is so frigging huge. the upside though is that it allows you to suckout more because you manipulated the pot to allow you to draw as silly as that sounds. even if you don't spike a nine on the turn you should still see the river getting slightly bad odds because if you spike a set on the river you can raise and trap.

but if you don't improve on the river, the intersting line is whether to call or fold unimproved. i'd fold.

the best case scenerio is if you raise the flop and you don't get 3-bet and its checked to you on the turn. that obviously plays itself.

waiting till the turn to raise will suck for several reasons. sb bets the turn, you're raising a worse hand and leaving yourself open to 3-betting on the big street.

the other:
sb has AK and checks the turn and you missed all those bets you could have gained.

[colgin]

[ QUOTE ]
It's essential to decide how likely you think SB is to be playing an overpair. A read would really help. Absent reads on the opposing players I think we have a thin edge on the flop for pushing a 3-1 bet. It's a close decision.


[/ QUOTE ]

After reading your various posts Stellar I kept going back and forth on this in my mind and realized that it must be pretty close. I thought I would run some Poker Stove numbers to see if Hero is likely to win more than his fair share here.

In the follwing Poker Stove numberd, Hand 1 is SB, Hand 2 is MP1, Hand 3 is CO and Hand 4 (clearly) is Hero. I assumed a fairly narrow range of hands that SB would cap with, a broder range of raising hands for MP1 and a random hand for the CO, who seems to be just along for the ride. Here's what I got:


2,867,061,120 games 1925.157 secs 1,489,260 games/sec

Board: 5c 2d 7s
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)

Hand 1: 39.0400 % [ 00.38 00.01 ] { AA-TT, AKs-AQs, AKo }
Hand 2: 23.2576 % [ 00.22 00.01 ] { AA-99, AKs-ATs, KQs, AKo-AJo, KQo }
Hand 3: 17.4783 % [ 00.17 00.00 ] { random }
Hand 4: 20.2240 % [ 00.20 00.00 ] { 9h9c }

Now, depending on your assumptions I am syre you could have higher pot equity for Hero and thus a small value raise. But I figure it is pretty marginal either way.