Auto fold or auto call?

[spentrent]

Hypothetical: Level 1 just ends in a PP SNG. 10 players with ~1000 chips each, blinds 10/20. UTG+1 raises 4xBB to 80 and everyone limps to you on the button with 99. You call, and the blinds fold. Flop comes 3s 8s Jd. UTG+1 immediately pushes all-in.

You?

[ColdestCall]

fold, and likely fold preflop

[spentrent]

[ QUOTE ]
... likely fold preflop

[/ QUOTE ]

You wouldn't pay 8% of your stack to see a flop with 99, from the button no less? I am starting to question my perception of "tightness."

[stillnotking]

[ QUOTE ]
Hypothetical: Level 1 just ends in a PP SNG. 10 players with ~1000 chips each, blinds 10/20. UTG+1 raises 4xBB to 80 and everyone limps to you on the button with 99. You call, and the blinds fold. Flop comes 3s 8s Jd. UTG+1 immediately pushes all-in.

You?

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, since you called hoping to flop a set, and did not flop one... fold. He might have AK but he might have AA, KK, or QQ also. Why call off your whole stack this early in the tournament?

[RobGW]

I would call preflop as you have great implied odds if you hit your set. However, with this many people in the pot I would play it for set value. As for the flop, UTG could have anything. The only hands you beat are a bluff or a smaller pair. You really have no idea where you are at here so why risk the whole tourney at this point? You will probably have better opportunities later. Even if he has AK and you are ahead, he still has outs to beat you. Even if you double up here, its so early in the tourney your chances of winning only go up slightly. Its just not anywhere near worth the risk here. Auto fold.

[ColdestCall]

I used to, but the more I play, the more I am convinced that this is not a winning play on Level 2, especially when the raise comes from UTG. You just have no idea where you stand on the flop, and it is very easy to burn up a bunch of chips when you put UTG on AK and the flop comes 8-5-2, and UTG actually has QQ. It is too easy to get outplayed on the flop here.

Of course, when you flop a 9, you are in good shape, but I dont find that I double through enough when I flop trips to make calling 8% off worth it, especially when I am almost sure I am going to give it up on the flop if a 9 doesnt hit. Change the raise to 40 and I call. Add a couple of callers to UTG's raise, and I call. Hell, sometimes I'll call in the original situation you described, but I don't think it's right. In that situation (on button facing 8% stack raise from UTG), I am playing TIGHT (AA, KK, QQ, AK) in levels 1-3.

[spentrent]

[ QUOTE ]
... He might have AK but he might have AA, KK, or QQ also ...

[/ QUOTE ]

I haven't thought this out precisely but I think there's a "decent" chance that AA will limp in EP whereas AK would almost always raise. Thus there's a somewhat smaller chance that the villain has AA here. (This may also apply to KK somewhat).

Given that, there are 21 ways to make AA|KK|QQ and 16 ways to make AK. If enough negative weight is applied to AA (and KK) to account for limpers, it might be approaching a better-then-even-money play to call with 99.

And we could also consider other ways the villain plays that over-pair. Would he NEED to push to protect that big pair? Why would he push with the big pair and not try to suck one more bet out of you?

[ZebraAss]

I wouldn’t even call the 80 pre flop. Considering you are on the button, you still have a lot of chips, UTG raised(which I don’t UTG would limp many times with AA KK blinds this low incase too many people want a cheap flop), and its early in the tournament I don’t like the call. Keep all your chips for a better chance. You do receive great implied odds but for 2 2 - 10 10 you basically have to play for set value this early unless you get a cheap draw on the flop which you wouldn’t call 22 or 33 for 80 chips so why call 99.

Question: What does "everybody limps" mean.

- Well if everyone calls the 80 chips(hardly a limp) I would definately call 99. But I really doubt many do.

[jg22]

I have a question for those of you who would say to fold this PF to the raiser. I think a very valid argument can be made for folding 99 PF.. but my question is how high of a PP do you fold PF in this situation? What if you had TT? JJ? How about AQs? AQo?

[ZebraAss]

The thing about folding 99 is that you can usually presume it is the best hand but is it worth it...You have 5 cards coming very very soon that says its not(unless you hit your 9). When your opponents most likely have A-10 covered in front of you....any face card and you are out of there. If you would call 99 why not call 78 or 89 suited? You have a better chance of taking down big hands if you get your proper draws and pot odds. With 99 there are usually only 2 cards you can get to win it...you cant count on anything else. (As you know)The more players enter the hand Pocket pairs decrease in value. I raise with JJ and QQ so less opponents call which leaves me with a better chance to win the hand, with JJ and QQ I am not counting to hit my set, I am counting on very few opponents to miss their hands. But with 99 or 10 10 you are worried about just about every flop there could be, I am not so sure if you even want a flop like 4 4 4 when UTG raises pre flop like that because he could have a higher pocket pair or another player could sneak into the hand and bust you when he checks it around.

[sofere]

I would call this PF and with any PP, autofold if I don't hit a set. I'm assuming everyone limping after the raise means they all cold call. Also assuming UTG folded. That means its 80 to call a 480 pot, your getting 6:1 pot odds. Odds to hit are ~8:1, but with that many cold callers and you being in position, i'd expect you to be able to get at least one person all-in. Your then betting 80 to win ~1400, 17.5:1 implied odds. Call PF, no set, no bet.

[ QUOTE ]
With 99 there are usually only 2 cards you can get to win it...you cant count on anything else. (As you know)The more players enter the hand Pocket pairs decrease in value.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is only the case when your planning on seeing the river. If you plan to fold if you don't nail the flop then PP increase in value the more players there are. There is a greater chance of flopping a set than flopping a flush or straight.

BTW, I put the guy on JJ-AA, depending on limits maybe AJ or TT. I wouldn't be surprised to see a set of Jacks push all-in, scared of the flush draw.

[ericlambi]

I limped with 66 last night in L1 of a $50, called a min-raise, hit my set, doubled-up, won the tourney. Playing that one hand in a multiway pot profited me $195 (the chances of me winning if I hadn't doubled up probably cut by 5 or so).

Calling 30 (or in the case of L2 60) of my chips off once or twice per SNG to see a flop with a PP is never going to determine whether I win or lose if I don't hit. Folding any PP in a multiway pot to standard sized raises is a big mistake IMO.

Edit: I thought there were a bunch of limpers in this pot. Re-reading it, I think there was a typing error in the original post and everyone folded to the button. This makes the argument for folding more valid, but I would probably still call.

[ZeeJustin]

1. How do you limp in a pot that's already been raised?
2. Why does this decision have to be automatic?

[ericlambi]

I am folding 66 and below here. In this particular situation, you have a good chance of winning the pot even if you don't hit your set if the villain is not on a big PP and misses. I would not fold any PP if there was even one more caller.

[stillnotking]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
... He might have AK but he might have AA, KK, or QQ also ...

[/ QUOTE ]

I haven't thought this out precisely but I think there's a "decent" chance that AA will limp in EP whereas AK would almost always raise. Thus there's a somewhat smaller chance that the villain has AA here. (This may also apply to KK somewhat).

Given that, there are 21 ways to make AA|KK|QQ and 16 ways to make AK. If enough negative weight is applied to AA (and KK) to account for limpers, it might be approaching a better-then-even-money play to call with 99.

And we could also consider other ways the villain plays that over-pair. Would he NEED to push to protect that big pair? Why would he push with the big pair and not try to suck one more bet out of you?

[/ QUOTE ]

Depends on the buy-in. At a $10 SNG I might play AA exactly the way UTG played this hand. The reason is that I might be called by AJ, A8... all kinds of hands that are not getting anywhere near the odds to call an all-in. I would NOT push with AK for precisely the same reason.

If you think your opponent is extremely aggressive, it might be worth a call. Even then he might turn over something like AsKs, which while technically not the "best hand", has more equity than you...