I hate saying "GOY" but this is mine

[Zoltri]

Philly will win this one easily.
Those Vikings are pretty smug right now but will hit a wall on Sunday. I look for the Eagles to get on them early and demorilize the weak Viking psyche.

Olympic(my bets)

Philly -.5 (-125)..First quarter ($300)
Philly -5.5..First half ($300)
Philly -8.5..Game ($800)

[CCx]

I agree with you completely, and am all over the game at -9.5, -9, and now -8.5 (and waiting for it to drop more /images/graemlins/grin.gif)

I am quite enjoying hearing all of the hype regarding the Vikings this week, but I know better, and my Eagles will be ready to play, ready to win, and ready to show the 'hype' people just where they can shove it.

Good luck and GO BIRDS!

(In a sick, twisted way I'm also rooting for the Rams to win, not only because I have them on the moneyline, but just so that the Eagles can enjoy shoving it down Mike Martz's throat when he tries to get cute with his playcalling next Sunday)

[DalaiLama]

[ QUOTE ]
my Eagles

[/ QUOTE ]

All I need to know.

[CCx]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
my Eagles

[/ QUOTE ]

All I need to know.

[/ QUOTE ]

How many other posts of mine do you need to read before you see that I'm a complete homer? /images/graemlins/grin.gif That being said, if you look at the facts surrounding the game, this really isn't a tough pick, homer or not.

Still, regardless, Eagles cover easily. Will Minny backdoor at the end? Possibly, but a gamble I'm willing to take because I know it'll be double digits the whole way.

Funny thing about the internet is that Sunday around 4pm, you can dig up this post again and see what's good - either way, I'll be at a bar in South Philly getting sloshed, so hopefully there's some good commentary for me to read when I get home /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[Waterproof]

I'm leaning in your direction. last week Green Bay was the worst team in the playoffs, this week it's the Vikes (my opinion). no action yet, but I'm pretty sure what side I'll be on... Good Luck

[other1]

If you could get the game at -10.5 -9.5 or -7.5 which would you take? Obviously the bigger lines pay more..

I could also get -3.5 and -14.5 but I don't think they are a good value or a safe bet, respectively.

[kyro]

I think we should see how Philly plays without TO before we start talking about how they're going to destroy the Vikings...I don't necessarily think Minnesota is going to win, but if I was placing bets, it'd be on Minnesota to cover.

[CCx]

[ QUOTE ]
If you could get the game at -10.5 -9.5 or -7.5 which would you take? Obviously the bigger lines pay more..

I could also get -3.5 and -14.5 but I don't think they are a good value or a safe bet, respectively.

[/ QUOTE ]

-3.5 is obviously not value, and -14.5 is obviously not safe. I already took this game at -9.5 when the line first came out, I would not take it at 10.5 at any less than +175 because of the 'key' number, and -7.5 I would not take - not because I dont think the birds will cover, but because with the line already being at -9/-8.5, i dont think -7.5 holds a whole lot of value or brings you any closer to a true 'safe point'.

[Big Al]

is the fact that this is Minnesota's third road game in a row. That is always tough on a team. Do you guys even bother to go back more than one week when looking at games? This being the Vikes third road game in a row is one of the strongest reasons to go against them. I am now worried though because all of you seem so sure...Big Al.

[CCx]

[ QUOTE ]
is the fact that this is Minnesota's third road game in a row. That is always tough on a team. Do you guys even bother to go back more than one week when looking at games? This being the Vikes third road game in a row is one of the strongest reasons to go against them. I am now worried though because all of you seem so sure...Big Al.

[/ QUOTE ]

Al, this is one of my prime reasons for taking the game. What is your reasoning for assuming that no one bothered to do research before picking the game? I could sit here and list about 10 reasons I'm taking the Eagles this week (besides the fact that I live here, duh) that involve research I did prior to making the pick. In fact, looking back at this post, I didn't list ANY reasons why I'm taking the Eagles this week. Just wondering where your remark came from, as I personally find it somewhat belittling. In addition to the fact that you refer to the posters in the thread as 'sharpies' (hardy har, not the term but the quotes), I'm guessing that you've not met any of us and/or bothered to do your research on our prior handicapping records. Thanks.

[Waterproof]

[ QUOTE ]
I am now worried though because all of you seem so sure

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks for the vote of confidence /images/graemlins/smirk.gif

I had the Vikes last week and Zoltri’s plays have been pretty good… CCx is a fan…
Anyway, it looks like the general public is all over Minn so I wouldn’t be too worried yet

[Waterproof]

[ QUOTE ]
CCx is a fan…

[/ QUOTE ]

No offense to CCx. I haven't followed your picks. I just saw that you were on the other side of me once and assumed you were a square /images/graemlins/grin.gif

Joke... Best of Luck to you... your team looks good

[tech]

The best reason to bet the Eagles this week is that 80% of bets are coming in on the Vikings.

[CCx]

[ QUOTE ]
No offense to CCx. I haven't followed your picks. I just saw that you were on the other side of me once and assumed you were a square /images/graemlins/grin.gif

Joke... Best of Luck to you... your team looks good

[/ QUOTE ]

No offense taken, I sometimes dont post my picks here because I'm not around a computer a whole lot on the weekends to do so - sometimes I post what I took after the game has already started if I can indeed get to a computer but who the hell cares by then? /images/graemlins/grin.gif

And I tend to think I'm more of a triangle.... LOL

Thanks, GO BIRDS /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[other1]

I'll put my record at picking games that already happened up against yours any day! /images/graemlins/wink.gif /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

[other1]

This was pretty much my thinking. I'm gonna get on this at -9.5. Like you imply, it's hard to imagine a win that would cover -7.5 and not -9.5, and there is better value in the -9.5.

[CCx]

[ QUOTE ]
I'll put my record at picking games that already happened up against yours any day! /images/graemlins/wink.gif /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

LOL, let's do it! /images/graemlins/crazy.gif

[Zoltri]

Waterproof, I didnt mean to steal your thunder. /images/graemlins/wink.gif
Lets just say, I will feel better if this is your pick this week. I was debating posting this thread because I didnt want to jinx myself. This is the largest wager of the season for me.

[BobbyD]

You guys don't know me or how big a dumbass I am (if at all) but as a mostly silent lurker I am so compelled by this game that I must chime in as I've benefited from this site many times - I enjoy Big Al's analysis and Waterproof's picks.

So, now is my time to give back.

Bet the Eagles hard - and bet them again and again and again this week.

The reasons are many and I would be happy to go into them if any of you care.

[Zoltri]

CCx..I think we are on the right side brother.

http://www2.freefoto.com//images_d/04/03/04_03_6_thumb.jpg

[Waterproof]

[ QUOTE ]
Waterproof, I didnt mean to steal your thunder. /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

LOL. No thunder to steal /images/graemlins/cool.gif
Anyway, I agree with you here... Any given Sunday, but I like your play and I hope you win...

[junkmail3]

What bar are you going to be at?

[CCx]

[ QUOTE ]
What bar are you going to be at?

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, either Chickie's and Pete's (the south philly one), or maybe go over to Cavanaugh's on 39th and Sansom because a lot of people I watch the games with live in West Philly or U.City - I actually just heard from my friend literally 5 minutes ago who lives right down the street from you, and even he wants to go to Cav's so looks like it's probably gonna be there (I think he just wants to look at Penn girls during the game) /images/graemlins/grin.gif If you're around West that day, send me a PM or swing on by, we'll be at a table front and center in front of the 8'x8' screen

[kyro]

[ QUOTE ]
The best reason to bet the Eagles this week is that 80% of bets are coming in on the Vikings.

[/ QUOTE ]

hey tech, i appreciate all the help you've given me in this forum. i just started looking into sports betting this year and i am completely fascinated with it. i am nowhere near ready to put any money on games, but i'm having fun making play bets.

what i'd like to ask you is what you mean by your quote. you say that because everyone is betting on vikings, you should take eagles. why is this? you don't get any extra money depending on how many people bet a game i'm assuming. is it because the line ends up moving eventually? thanks for the help again.

[wuwei]

[ QUOTE ]
is the fact that this is Minnesota's third road game in a row. That is always tough on a team. Do you guys even bother to go back more than one week when looking at games? This being the Vikes third road game in a row is one of the strongest reasons to go against them. I am now worried though because all of you seem so sure...Big Al.

[/ QUOTE ]

One thing Big Al missed is that destiny is on the side of the Vikings this week. A battle of 8-8 teams for the NFC championship is truly the only way to celebrate the mediocrity that is the NFC these days.

But wait, there's more! Also consider how experienced that Eagles and Donavan McNabb are at losing big playoff games. Another important factor is that the best QB in the NFC and best wide receiver in the NFL are on the side of the purple. I'm also comforted that the biggest weapon the Eagles have on offense will be on the sidelines. The Vikings defense is coming off its best game of the year, confident and ready to shut down Westbrook and McNabb... they probably won't shut them down completely, but it will certainly be enough to cover a 10 point spread with that offense on the other side of the field.

[wuwei]

[ QUOTE ]
what i'd like to ask you is what you mean by your quote. you say that because everyone is betting on vikings, you should take eagles. why is this?

[/ QUOTE ]

Tech's statement is based on a couple things, I imagine. First off, sportsbooks are in the business of making money. They don't take a bath that often. The vast majority of the action from the public appears to be on the Vikings. When this happens, the line often moves if the books realize they've set a bad line. If it doesn't move, there's something at work. One possibility is that wise guys are loading up on the other side to even out the action. Wise guys are in the business of making money as well. As far as I know, no book releases the dollars on each side, just the number of bets. Another possibility is that the books know something we don't, and the trap line has been set. Or the game is rigged, like Party Poker. There's a lot of theories on lines like this, many of which are conspiracy theories by nature.

Basically, it's not supposed to be a good idea to bet the line where the books take a bath, because most of the time, they don't.

Or, he could just be saying that often when the public settles on a consensus, the public is wrong. Go against the conventional wisdom.

[tech]

Sure. The NFL is the sport that has the highest percentage of "squares," or unsophisticated bettors. Because of that, one of the simplest methods for making money in the NFL is to bet the opposite way of the public. Sportsbooks can achieve roughly a 4.5% profit simply by balancing their action and profiting off the juice. However, they try to achieve a higher return by shading the lines against the bets that the public will make. The public almost always bets more favorites than dogs and also more overs than unders. Thus, most NFL lines are biased against the favorite and against the over. If the book expects action the other way, the reverse can be true, but this happens much less often. Most of the bets that I make in the NFL are made by looking at the lines to determine which side the book is taking, just like the post I made last week on the playoff games.

This week the bets are not as clear, mainly because the public is heavily betting all four underdogs. This is due obviously to the three outright wins by underdogs last weekend.

I like to bet against the public, but I really really hate to lay that many points. That makes this weekend a tough one for me. I might end up not betting at all. Hope this helps.

[craig r]

Don't you think the football playoffs are generally the hardest games to cap? The lines are usually pretty sharp because of all the "extra" bettors that come out of the woodwork. I don't think (but could be wrong) that books are as willing to take as strong of a position as during the regular season because there is so much money involved. So, going against the public might not be as good of an idea because the line is more than likely correct. But, I think that dogs generally do well wildcard weekend, but not as good during the divisional games. Thoughts?

craig

[tech]

[ QUOTE ]
Basically, it's not supposed to be a good idea to bet the line where the books take a bath, because most of the time, they don't.


[/ QUOTE ]

Dead on. Sharp bookmaking shops want unbalanced action on the side they think is most likely to lose.

[tech]

[ QUOTE ]
Don't you think the football playoffs are generally the hardest games to cap? The lines are usually pretty sharp because of all the "extra" bettors that come out of the woodwork.

[/ QUOTE ]

Agreed, and it becomes more pronounced the closer you get to the Super Bowl.

[ QUOTE ]
I don't think (but could be wrong) that books are as willing to take as strong of a position as during the regular season because there is so much money involved. So, going against the public might not be as good of an idea because the line is more than likely correct.

[/ QUOTE ]

Agreed, although I worry about that more for the conference championships than the divisional games. I have no way of verifying it, but I have heard bookmakers say that the Super Bowl is the only game where they won't take a position.

[ QUOTE ]
But, I think that dogs generally do well wildcard weekend, but not as good during the divisional games.

[/ QUOTE ]

Agree again. According to my database, since 1991 dogs/favorites are about even ATS in the wildcard round but dogs are only about 40% or so in the divisional round. Fairly small sample of games of course, but still interesting.

[arod4276]

Dead on. Sharp bookmaking shops want unbalanced action on the side they think is most likely to lose.

tech,, that is without a doubt the dumbest thing i have ever heard in my life.....Sharp bookmaking shops want equal action, and to make money of the vig/ parlays/teasers....ect.. Gambling fly by the night bookmakers want unbalanced action on ther side they think will lose. ,, When you want unbalanced action its called betting/ gambling not bookmaking . arod4276

[tech]

[ QUOTE ]
that is without a doubt the dumbest thing i have ever heard in my life.....Sharp bookmaking shops want equal action, and to make money of the vig/ parlays/teasers....ect.. Gambling fly by the night bookmakers want unbalanced action on ther side they think will lose. ,, When you want unbalanced action its called betting/ gambling not bookmaking . arod4276

[/ QUOTE ]

I should have clarified what I meant by sharp. I mean places like Pinnacle, for example, not your average bookie. Check out this thread (http://www.mwforums.com/fusetalk/messageview.cfm?catid=22&threadid=100033&CFID=1387 032&CFTOKEN=38277199).

Small bookmaking shops are the ones that need balanced action to survive. Books with sharp minds and deep pockets take unbalanced action on a lot of games. I assure you that they do indeed take unbalanced action -- not on all games, but on quite a few.

[arod4276]

It is widely known throughout the offshore gambling world that pinnacle does take positions on games and are huge huge gamblers,, that is fact....Some say that the greek does this also.Tthese two shops are probably the 2 largest bookmaking operations of us sports in the world. they have the liquidity,, volume,,,and obvoiusly a talented enough linesman to get away with it... The other 98 percent cant. Pinnacle operates in a way which no bookmaker has ever done before due mostly to there totally unreal amount of volume. arod4276

[scott8]

[ QUOTE ]
It is widely known throughout the offshore gambling world that pinnacle does take positions on games and are huge huge gamblers,, that is fact....Some say that the greek does this also.Tthese two shops are probably the 2 largest bookmaking operations of us sports in the world. they have the liquidity,, volume,,,and obvoiusly a talented enough linesman to get away with it... The other 98 percent cant. Pinnacle operates in a way which no bookmaker has ever done before due mostly to there totally unreal amount of volume. arod4276

[/ QUOTE ]

If this was true than Pinnacle's line should differ from the lines found at other sportsbooks. There line should represent the side they want the money on, since it would differ from the other books trying to middle.
However, there line seems to be the same as others, so. . .

[Waterproof]

Congrats on the win /images/graemlins/grin.gif

Loved the play... had em for the game /images/graemlins/smirk.gif

[CCx]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
my Eagles

[/ QUOTE ]

All I need to know.

[/ QUOTE ]

Wait, what? YUP! Birds, baby!

[CCx]

[ QUOTE ]
I think we should see how Philly plays without TO before we start talking about how they're going to destroy the Vikings...I don't necessarily think Minnesota is going to win, but if I was placing bets, it'd be on Minnesota to cover.

[/ QUOTE ]

How did they play without TO? Ok, just checking...

[Zoltri]

Thanks Waterproof. /images/graemlins/wink.gif
Congrats to you as well....awesome year!

http://images.picturequest.com/common/thumb-m/44/85/22158544.jpg