Fold to Turn C/R or on River (or not at all). . .

[itsmesteve]

I'm having some trouble with seeing too many showdowns, so in an effort to plug the leak, can you all tell me when you'd bail on this particualr hand. Only just sat down so no real reads.

Party Poker 0.5/1 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is SB with K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, K/images/graemlins/club.gif.
UTG folds, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls, MP1 folds, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, CO folds, Button calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, BB folds, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, Button calls.

Flop: (13 SB) 7/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, A/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 4/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(6 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, UTG+1 folds, UTG+2 folds, MP2 folds, MP3 folds, Button calls.

Turn: (7.50 BB) T/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises</font>, Hero calls.

River: (11.50 BB) 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">Button bets</font>, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 13.50 BB

[meanjean]

well, now you have a read.

I call both. I say there is a 12 to 1 shot he's bluffing the river but am more than willing to hear other ideas.

[davelin]

[ QUOTE ]
well, now you have a read.

I call both. I say there is a 12 to 1 shot he's bluffing the river but am more than willing to hear other ideas.

[/ QUOTE ]

On the turn the moment the Button raises and Hero has to decide whether to call down or fold there is 10.5BB in the pot. He'll have to commit 2 more (assuming Villain bets the river) winning a total of 11.5BB. So he has to be good about 2:11.5 times for this to be profitable.

[btspider]

you are getting 11:2 to calldown the turn raise. either fold the turn or calldown. so will you be good 1 in 6.5 times when all the cards are out? meh..

hmm.. thinking out loud:
1 in 6.5 = 3 in 19.5
roughly 1 in 19.5 times you'll river a K and pass his Ax or two pair or set or whatever..

so you need to be good unimproved 2 in 19.5 times to initiate a calldown.. 1 in 10 times (small adjustment for the 1 in 19.5 river K assumption)..

so.... calldown seems semi-reasonable if the K's are good.

[Nick C]

If it were a turn checkraise, I'd be more inclined to fold.

Against just a plain old raise, I still might fold. But I'm tempted to call down, since it's heads-up, and the pot is fairly large.

Still, I'm expecting to be shown an ace that Button waited until the turn to raise with.

[crockett]

I think this is standard. But turn raise bluffs into a PFR are pretty rare so folding is fine as well, I believe.

The pot is large enough that I don't think your making a mistake either way. You'll probably win if you catch a K but it would be a little better if you held the Kh.