Interesting Approach to Over-Aggressive

[Loser]

MP1 is has a Aggression Factor of 3.9 (%raise +%bet)/%call with a 6.5 on the flop and a 4.0 on the river. Very Aggresive player. VP$IP 11.5 Preflop Raise 9.5

I feel that I errored either by not capping on one of the streets if not both. Comments?

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: AQsurvey is Button with Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
UTG calls, UTG+1 folds, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 raises</font>, MP2 folds, MP3 folds, CO folds, <font color="#CC3333">AQsurvey 3-bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB caps</font>, BB folds, UTG folds, MP1 calls, AQsurvey calls.

Flop: (14 SB) 4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 7/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 bets</font>, AQsurvey calls, SB calls.

Turn: (8.50 BB) 7/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">AQsurvey raises</font>, SB folds, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 3-bets</font>, AQsurvey calls.

River: (14.50 BB) T/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">MP1 bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">AQsurvey raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 3-bets</font>, AQsurvey calls.

Final Pot: 20.50 BB

[gaming_mouse]

This seems like a close call to me at first glance, but further analysis seems to support capping. He has JJ-AA almost certainly (I think his turn 3-bet rules out TT). Given his aggression factor, he might play any of those hands the way he did. Now consider:

JJ - 3 hands
QQ - 3 hands
KK - 6 hands
AA - 3 hands

You are a 1:4 favorite to be ahead, so every extra bet is gravy. Even if we add in TT as one of his potential hands, you are still a 1:2 favorite.

If you don't think he would play QQ-AA this way, that's a different story, but his stats suggest he would.

gm

[Loser]

I agree, but at what point do I ditch the math and make a read/creative play? Clearly I ditched my intentions of capping the river with the turn disguising of my flush...but the having both JJ and TT as potentional destroyers crossed my mind and the extra $4.

[gaming_mouse]

[ QUOTE ]
I agree, but at what point do I ditch the math and make a read/creative play?

[/ QUOTE ]

When you have a good reason to believe he has those hands rather than the QQ-AA. If you don't have a reason, then your creative play is probably based on false intuition.

gm

[dantheman_05]

if your gonna play poker at that level, sometimes your just gonna have to gamble. you have a great hand, so cap it, in the long run when you are that strong you will not be up against a better hand so your extra bets will be profitable. gotta think long term. especially against a crazy player like that

[BetTheFlop]

[ QUOTE ]
if your gonna play poker at that level, sometimes your just gonna have to gamble. you have a great hand, so cap it, in the long run when you are that strong you will not be up against a better hand so your extra bets will be profitable. gotta think long term. especially against a crazy player like that

[/ QUOTE ]

Are we reading the same post? This guy has a VP$IP rate of 11.5. Yes, he's VERY aggressive, but it's only with the most premium of hands. I'm not sure if I'd classify that as "crazy". I'd be very surprised if OP won this hand.

Rob

[Fat Nicky]

[ QUOTE ]
Are we reading the same post? This guy has a VP$IP rate of 11.5. Yes, he's VERY aggressive, but it's only with the most premium of hands. I'm not sure if I'd classify that as "crazy". I'd be very surprised if OP won this hand.


[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, but his post-flop aggression factor seems to suggest that he overplays his hands. Then again, the figure could be misleading based on the # of hands you have on this guy. It would help if we had the # of hand AF is being rated on.

[Rico Suave]

Loser:

[ QUOTE ]
Aggression Factor of 3.9 (%raise +%bet)/%call with a 6.5 on the flop and a 4.0 on the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

When I see stats like this on a player, it is almost always due to a tiny sample size. Also, while many say that these stats show that he overplays his hands (which may be true), it may also indicate that he folds too much (other stats can help you here).

I would raise the flop.

I would cap the turn and if he bet into me again on the river, I might start to worry. BTW, I see this all the time...the smooth call of the turn and raise the river play. Why? What is your reasoning here? Just cap it and go from there.

--Rico

[BetTheFlop]

[ QUOTE ]

Yes, but his post-flop aggression factor seems to suggest that he overplays his hands. Then again, the figure could be misleading based on the # of hands you have on this guy. It would help if we had the # of hand AF is being rated on.

[/ QUOTE ]

I would agree it definitely would help to know the number of hands we're taking into consideration. But in this case, I'm responding as if these numbers are an indication of this person's playing style. And I'd be more inclined to agree with Rico, that the guy probably folds too much, as opposed to overplaying his hands. This guy has a VP$IP of 11.5...doesn't sound like someone looking for spots to spew chips...which overplaying hands will do.

You know, just this type of back and forth debate is what I like most about this place. I think I'll stick around.

Rob

[Loser]

If it helps, I have a sample size of only 140 on this guy. I was playing off of reads made only durring my session. Thanks for the comments, I agree the capped river makes more sense instead of the call.