Laydown on the turn.

[DavidC]

Extemely small sample sizes (15 hands each). SB is LP-P and CO is LA-A...

As a side-note, does anyone fold this preflop, or raise it? I believe that a raise could be in order, to push my small edge and to get rid of the dead money in the blinds.

---

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (8 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is Button with K/images/graemlins/heart.gif, J/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+1 calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, CO calls, Hero calls, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: (5 SB) 4/images/graemlins/club.gif, 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif, K/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, UTG+1 checks, <font color="#CC3333">CO bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, SB calls, BB folds, UTG+1 folds, CO calls.

Turn: (5.50 BB) 3/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">CO bets</font>, Hero folds...

[Chuckles1248]

I think that fold is fine, if it were a bigger pot, then calling would be right, as there's a decent chance that an LA-A is bluffing at a scare card, but with a 5.5 BB pot, having to call two more for what will probably end up being a 7.5 BB pot isn't worth it.

[DemonDeac]

folding's fine in small pot. still get bet into by person u raised. i think ur behind.

in response to ur preflop question: raising is an option, but i wouldnt do it with an UTG limper.if MP players limped i'd highly consider raising. calling seems best. wouldnt muck cuz on button and no one has really shown strength.

[kpux]

I was gonna say keep calling until I noticed the turn put a 3 flush on the board. I think dumping there is fine. I don't think CO has a better K as he is LAG preflop, but he could easily have a 4 or a flush. The fact that the SB is still in the hand worries me. The pot is small, folding is fine.

[DavidC]

Results:

The LA-A didn't have a flush. The LP-P called this bet, and then check-raised the river with a baby flush.

A little while later in the session the flush card came on the river vs. these same two opponents, with the same position. The action was even more clear this time: LA-A had bet the turn, I'd raised it with top two pair, and both had called!

When the flush card came on the river I knew I was in trouble. LP-P checked, LA-A bet, the pot was like 15bb so I called, LP-P raised, LA-A re-raised, and I folded. They both had flushes, and LP-P dragged it down again. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

It happens. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

I really really don't want to fold that river for one bet, though!

[Redeye]

I haven't read the result yet. I think the advice so far is way to weak especially considering you have somewhat of a read that CO is a possible LAG. The turn raise could easily be a semibluff, or just a complete shot at the pot here. Also, a lot of players would c/r you with a flush or wait to the river to c/r. In addition, even if he does have a flush, you're not drawing completely dead. If villian continues to bet the river you're getting about 7.5:2 to call down and therefore you need to be good only about 24% of the time. If you had something like AK or AQ I would even have raised the turn since this is so often a semibluff.

As for PF, KJo is an easy raise here.

[DavidC]

Initial response:

two kings and two fours gives me four outs at taking this down vs. a flush. There's less than 10 bb in the pot. I suppose if you figure that he could have a

Also, shooting for this pot with a bare 4 or a boat could be a good thing for him, right, giving me a chance to raise my flush?

While it's true that he may be a lag, the fishy guy just called along in this hand, making me a little suspicious. There wasn't a whole lot out there on that flop to call with.

When you say that you would raise with AQ... you mean if one of my cards was a club, right? I'm not sure what AQ would have given me. /images/graemlins/smile.gif I'll have to check out the hand one more time.

Thanks for the comment on the pf.

Edit: AQ doesn't give me much to work with, I'm afraid, unless I have the A of clubs. On a ragged board, you'd expect them to have something that beats your AQ if they've called. Also, pot odds could be even better than 7.5:2 because of the LP-P guy in there for one or two more.

--------------

Okay, now a more open-minded approach:

Now that I'm done being a jack-monkey, I'll take a peek at the possibility of him semi-bluffing. Thanks for pointing that out, and sorry I didn't take this approach first:

I have either 2 outs (if someone has a 4) or 4 outs (if someone has a flush and no one has a 4). Since my opposition is in EP and LP, the chances of the 4 are rare, so I'm probably looking at 4 outs about 75% of the time here: 3.5 outs total then (2 + 2 * 0.75).

That gives me a 7.5% chance at taking the pot by the river right there.

One thing that I don't like about this is that the board will be scary if I hit, and therefore I will probably get 1 BB on the river (if that), rather than 2. Therefore my implied odds aren't really great... I think it's fair to assume a call though.

OOC, if I call and miss, do I have to call a river bet?

OOC, if I raise and it's 3-bet, should I fold (I think so!)?

OOC, if I raise and he calls, then a blank hits the river and he bets again, this could be consistent with someone having a 4, should I call (the pot will be pretty large by that point)?

One thing that I should add is that I really like being LP in this case. If I raise, then I can take a free showdown vs someone with a 4. However, I don't know if that's really a good idea...

Supposing I raise and it's called, a blank hits the river and it's checked to me, should I bet it if it's heads-up? What about if it's 3-way?

I'm going to assume I get a call from the LP-P guy, but a call from only one guy at the R. Therefore, with 8.5:2 odds (break even is winning 19% of time), it's break-even to call if he completely bluffing 12.5% of the time (1/8).

If he's only semi-bluffing, and he has a club, then his chance of drawing out is: 19%. I'm not sure how to calculate this into my required winning percentage, though.

If two of them have a club and call, I'm lovin it! /images/graemlins/smile.gif Between the two of them, their odds of drawing out are less than 19%, and I get twice the bang for the same semi-bluff buck.

There's also a possibility that these guys are going to be bluffing the river, too, putting me on a flush draw if I call.

In short, this is a wildly complex situation, and I'm not sure how great my winning chances have to be, exactly, to continue to play.

I really don't know if I like the raise though... could you please tell me why you prefer the raise to a call?

This would largely depend on how you respond to a re-raise, as well as what kinds of action you expect on the river and the turn, given their likely holdings, I imagine.

--Dave.

[Redeye]

[ QUOTE ]
While it's true that he may be a lag, the fishy guy just called along in this hand, making me a little suspicious. There wasn't a whole lot out there on that flop to call with.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, SB worried me too, but there is a chance that this is just some clown with a weak K or some smaller pair that is trying to suck-out or thinks his hand is good. I just think a large majority of the time when someone bets into you on a scare card he is full of it or its a semibluff.

[ QUOTE ]
When you say that you would raise with AQ... you mean if one of my cards was a club, right? I'm not sure what AQ would have given me. I'll have to check out the hand one more time.

[/ QUOTE ]

Sorry, I meant AK or KQ and I probably would still raise the turn.

I don't think you should be looking at this as needing to have the pot or implied odds to hit your boat. If you consider the % of time you're ahead, plus the chance you'll draw out if behind can make this a call IMO.

[Chuckles1248]

[ QUOTE ]
If villian continues to bet the river you're getting about 7.5:2 to call down and therefore you need to be good only about 24% of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't see how you can think that the Hero will be ahead 24% of the time with a board like this against two players. Sure the supposed LAG might be semibluffing, but he might have it, and the LP-P guy has something too. I just don't think top pair will hold up here a quarter of the time against two players.

[DavidC]

The pot's pretty big...

The guy doesn't need to be bluffing / semi-bluffing too often for me to show a profit... I can likely respond to a raise by folding, therefore saving me some cash when I'm behind.

I'm not 100% sure what that exact number is though.

The other thing is I'm not sure how often these guys are going to have the flush or the 4.

...

results: I folded, they had flushes, but I may have still made a bad fold... I'm not sure about that yet.

[Redeye]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't see how you can think that the Hero will be ahead 24% of the time with a board like this against two players. Sure the supposed LAG might be semibluffing, but he might have it, and the LP-P guy has something too. I just don't think top pair will hold up here a quarter of the time against two players.

[/ QUOTE ]

Because a LAG will take a shot with a board like this and a LP will call down with a smaller K, with a backdoor flush draw, with smaller PPs that your beating. In addition, you have between 2-4 outs probably to the best hand if you are behind meaning you'll draw out when behing about 4-8% of the time. This makes the % you need to be ahead even lower, I don't have time to do the math, but this probably means you need to be ahead only ~15-20% of the time, which is highly probably on party poker

[chris_a]

I would raise this hand if you were going to play it preflop. You don't want the blinds in if possible with this hand. It plays well as short-handed as possible. One extra player takes away from this hand's value.

You're getting about 3.75 to 1 from the pot to call down.
Who knows what he's betting with...? He's LA-A. It's really close to be honest. It's definitely a scare card. You can't fold everytime a scare card comes against an LA-A. You'll be playing right into their traps and what's worse is that they'll start doing it more often against you if you fold close ones. You only need to be ahead 21% of the time to justify a call and against a LA-A this is reasonable.

Just my style though. I tend to fold borderline preflop hands due to the rake and call with borderline turn and river hands.

If it were the SB betting you could fold more easily.

[Chuckles1248]

I think you're overlooking the fact that the sample size for his reads is really small. The players in question may or may not be LA and LP, after only 15 hands it's tough to tell. Also, even if the LP is actually an LP, you're getting reverse implied odds from him if he's calling with a worse K or a smaller pair.

Another thing to consider is if he does have a worse K, then your outs to improve to a boat are cut in half, because when you do, you only get half the pot.

Maybe I'm being too weak here, but it just seems like this pot is too small to get really attached to, especially with weak reads and only TP.

[Redeye]

Just to preface this reply, I think this is a somewhat difficult situation and I'm not sure if I'm right in calling the turn here. If its heads up, this is an easy raise/call and I wouldn't even consider folding. However, SB calling two cold on the flop complicates things and it depends on what your read on this guy is. If he's a calling station, I'm more inclined to think there is a good chance we're ahead. I just think that adding the chance we draw out on SB's made flush + chance SB doesn't have a flush makes a call on the turn ok. (Incidentally, I never thought the LAG player has a flush when he bet out, it doesn't make a whole lot of sense).

[ QUOTE ]
OOC, if I call and miss, do I have to call a river bet?

[/ QUOTE ]

If you call the turn, and SB folds I definately call the river regardless of if you improve and probably bet if checked to.

If you call the turn, SB raises and CO calls I think a call could be close in this case to try and spike a full house since you'll be getting about 10.5:1 on a call.

[ QUOTE ]
OOC, if I raise and it's 3-bet, should I fold (I think so!)?


[/ QUOTE ]

If proceeding in this hand is correct, I'm not sure if raising or just calling is correct. I like the idea of raising if there is a strong chance CO is semibluffing. However, if you raise and are 3-bet by SB and CO calls, you may have the odds to hit your full on the river. In this case I'd call and fold the river unimproved.

I wouldn't mind hearing some other opinions on how to play the rest of this hand, and also some argument for folding the turn since I'm not 100% convince calling is right, but given the play of some of these clowns I don't think its too bad one way or the other